After a milder Tuesday upcoming and then eyes will again turn back to a more wintry setup and a more consistent wintry setup. At least for the upcoming short to mid range period(8-14days)
That gets kicked off with the first “impactful”event starting Wednesday. Wednesday itself looks to Elevational dependent as far as liquid vs frozen, accumulating vs melting and those marginal temps lays out right across our Elevation range to create some differences.
2500′ to 3200′ Light precip that begins with temps 33-37°, starts off with a drier low level surface air. That can help flakes reach to 2500′ or lower. As the air mass moistens up, mid 30s at the surface, with light precip should allow for a mix of liquid and wet snow to alternate back and forth through the day with little or no accumulation. At 3000-3500′ temps 30-34°. Some light snow, light rain mix. Light slushy accumulations possible Wednesday. As you go 3500’+ Temps in the upper 20s and lower 30s should allow for most of Wednesday to be in the snow form and mostly light precip but enough to put down 1″ to 2″ by nightfall.
By nightfall, elevation will begin to lose being a the big factor as far as the marginal temps and precip tupe and widespread accumulations Wednesday night/Thursday.
Not a big snow, but impactful accumulations look likely.
From Garrett,Preston, Somerset, Fayette, Westmoreland, Cambria, a 2-5″ type event. Leaning low to mid on that range and the Wv high ground total snowfall including Wednesday in the 4-7″ range. Again leaning low to mid on that range. A good performance can max out.
● A look at the Euro for this event
Model precip type at the grid doesn’t do the best job at exact details, but gives a good idea.
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●Jumping to the 850 temps. Essentially the Wv high ground. (In celcius- 0/Grey is freezing and below). While precipitating, theres no daytime diurnal across the high ground, so when you see -1, -2° C , that should equate to wet snow 3200- 3500′ and up with marginal temps and that gets colder as you go up in Elevation and temps below freezing to the surface 3700- 4000’+. The grid point on the modeled sounding( 2500′) the surface is above freezing, and saturated so likely to mix in some liquid, or the very least wet snow that won’t accumulate, with the exception of any pockets of moderate precip. Thats the theme of the day 3200′ and below.
as we go later in to the evening the colder air sweeps across and temps, elevation not a precip type factor.
Snowfall amounts off the models through Thursday :
•Off the Euro
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•Off the GFS
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●Beyond that:
Another disturbance Friday-Saturday that can put down 2-4″ +/-. Bit far out for details.
And again Monday. All drier northern branch systems, high ratio, low liquid as we have been seeing mostly.
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The incoming cold tomorrow night and Thursday will lead to temps in the single digits over the Wv tops, lower teens elsewhere. Windchills -10 to -20 Wv tops , 0 to -10 elsewhere.(winds gusting 35-50)
•
-windchills
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●IN SUMMARY:
Wednesday- light moisture, Elevation plays a role through the day on precip type, any accumulation
Wednesday Night-Thursday, much colder, widespread accumulations. Not a major snow, but impacting
–Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Foxtown Rd morningBittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon West of Bittinger evening
Bittinger 4H
Top of Wisp
–
●bogus, 100% bogus 4-4.5″ reports from this event in McHenry.
Rock Lodge Rd near 219 morning Mchenry morningMchenry morning Mchenry morning Mchenry morningMchenry morning Mchenry morningMchenry morningMchenry morning Mchenry evening
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Canaan Valley Refuge
Dobbins High Bog Sods
Spruce Knob
Snowshoe
Mt.Davis
Flight 93
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Bittinger 2NW Valley, Bittinger 4H, Garrett County Airport, Mt.Davis
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
void
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning By old Cherry Glade Church morningBittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Foxtown Rd afternoon Rock Lodge Rd afternoon
Bittinger 4H
Top of Wisp
Deep Creek morningMchenry evening Mchenry evening –––––––
After nearly a week without winter, winter conditions return overnight tonight and Sunday. Those conditions include:
●Colder Temps
●Some snow accumulation with possible heavy squall(s)
●Wind
The National Weather Service is out with Winter Weather Advisories and Wind Advisories as we go through Sunday.
Let’s start with the Winter Weather Advisories highlighted in purple.
–
●Snowfall from the NWS
–
Snowfall off the 12zEuro
–
12z GFS
–
In general I’m leaning 1-3″ with pockets up to 4″. Not a long lasting event. A key thing to watch for is the potential squall line Sunday morning. Those are hard to predict. Those can be accompanied by brief whiteout conditions, with rapidly deteriorating travel, that typically only last for a brief time. A few flashes of lightning, rumbles can’t be totally ruled out as it passes by.
–
●Temps
Sunday 7amSunday 2pmMonday 7amMonday 2pm
After that, Tuesday, Wednesday look to mainly be above freezing. 40s for many Tuesday and Tuesday night temps remain steady. Wednesday remains above freezing for many, but areas above 3500-4000′ come back down to and below freezing during the day and elsewhere follows by Thursday morning.
●Wind
Wind Advisories are out from the NWS
Winds will be on the increase ahead of and behind the front Sunday. Wind Gust off the 12z Euro. Winds gusting 35-45mph for many, exceeding 50-55mph across the high exposed Wv locations.
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Obviously with the combo of colder temps, plus gusty winds, windchills will come in to play.
●Windchills off the 12z Euro
Single Digits Wv tops. Teens elsewhere Sunday a.m. Widespread single digits windchills and some below 0 windchills above 4000′ later Sunday.
–
In Summary:
Colder air returns tonight with some snow in to Sunday morning. Snow squall threat Sunday morning. Strong gusty winds in play. Colder weather through Monday. Not a major winter event, but one likely to cause some issues. That would be
1: travel
2: potential power issues with the wind, but nothing like the last wind event.
Thats all ahead of moderating temps Tuesday, Wednesday. Wednesday temps holding steady with the Wv tops back below freezing.
As we go Wednesday to Thursday, eyes once again go to a snow “threat”. Potentially a significant snow threat. That said, its way too uncertain too if it occurs and amounts. Take any wild social media post with a pound of salt. Next weekend also offers potential.
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon
Bittinger 4H
Top of Wisp
Mchenry morningDeep Creek Lake morningDeep Creek Lake morningDeep Creek Lake morning
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Spruce Knob
Snowshoe
Mt.Davis
Flight 93
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Bittinger 2NW Valley, Bittinger 4H, Garrett County Airport, Mt.Davis
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High and Down Low
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
void
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morningBittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 4H
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Canaan Valley Refuge
Dobbins High Bog Sods
Spruce Knob
Snowshoe
Mt.Davis
Flight 93
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Bittinger 2NW Valley, Bittinger 4H, Garrett County Airport, Mt.Davis
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Allegheny Mountains Weather 