March 11.               min.           max.      avg

Bitt 2nw Valley       4.1           38.7        21.4

Garrett College    11.3          40.5        25.9

Can-Heights         14.9           40.7      27.8

CRN-Canaan        15.9           41.0      28.5

Cabin Mt.             18.5           38.7      28.6

Cabin Mt north NO DATA

Spruce Knob      12.9           44.6       28.8

Showshoe/S.C     23.9           40.3      32.1

Can-Valley Floor

Cresaptown         19.2          52.2       35.6

Green Bank Obs  14.9         50.8       32.8

7Springs               18.2          39.0       28.6

Clear cold start once again. Sunny day, with a few periods of high clouds. Very low dew points. Type of March day that snow melts in sunny areas, remains powdery in shaded areas despite temp.

Todays modis satellite view

Temps today at Bittinger 2nw Valley, Cabin Mt, national profile this afternoon

 

 

Temps at The Glades dropped below 0 again this morning, with some cool looking hoarfrost around. Many get hoarfrost and rime mixed up. This is hoarfrost, rime is what we get across the high ground often with fog events in winter

 

 

Thoughts ahead on snow this week. The storm tomorrow is mainly a southern Alleghenies event as it looks now. With lighter amounts north. More impressed with the upslope there after through Friday a.m than tomorrow’s event. Unfortunately for snow lovers, this did not become the “Big One”. Lots of ingredients on the table but didn’t time out right.

A generalization map in part 1 for tomorrow.  Leaning low in those amounts.

Part 1 is tomorrow’s event, Part 2 is upslope Tuesday through Friday a.m

 

 

March to date

 

 

 

 

March 10.               min.          max.     avg

Bitt 2NW valley    3.8           35.2       19.5

Garrett College    12.2          35.5       23.9

Can-Heights          10.1         33.6       21.8

CRN-Canaan         17.8         34.4       26.1

Cabin Mt               13.3          31.6      22.5

Cabin Mt north   NO DATA

Spruce Knob       12.7           30.6      21.6

Snowshoe/S.C.    18.9           28.8      23.8

Can-Valley Floor -6.4

Cresaptown         18.0           51.1       34.5

Green Bank Obs  15.6          38.8        27.2

7Springs                19.8          34.1       26.9

The Glades           -4.9

Wall to wall sun in Northern half of the Alleghenies, clouds dominated south. Very cold valleys this am in the clear areas

Snowfall  Bittinger 2NW valley .4 overnight from 6pm until it ended. 108.3 on the season.

Temps today. The Glades dropped to -4.9° this morning and you can see the effects of a small breeze. At 4:44am it was -4.4, at 6am it was +10.7, at 6:45am it was -4.9°. Canaan Valley Floor site on Timberline Rd dropped to -6.4. Here are those temps and Bittinger 2nw Valley, Cabin Mt 4350, and national profile this afternoon

 

Modis Satellite today. Showing clouds well north, and clouds in the southern Alleghenies. Snow cover also visible

March 9.                min.         max.        avg

Bitt 2NW valley  18.4          25.0       21.7

Garrett College  18.5          22.6        20.5

Can-Heights       13.8          19.8        16.8

CRN-Canaan      15.2           20.5        17.9

Cabin Mt             11.3         16.7        14.0

Cabin Mt north 12.7          18.9       15.8

Spruce Knob     10.0          19.9       14.9

Snowshoe/S.C     10.4         18.9       14.6

Can-Valley Floor

Cresaptown         23.2         38.9      30.9

Green Bank Obs. 16.3        29.5      22.9

7Springs              20.9          24.2     22.5

Moderate to at times heavy fluffy snow overnight. Blowing and drifting. Continuing through the morning but losing intensity, coverage, however still lingering past nightfall. Lingering past my 6pm recording.

 

8:46 am update. Snowfall- 7.6″ overnight at Bittinger 2nw Valley since 6pm boardsweep. 106.2″ on the season. Snow has continued since. 6pm update- 1.3″ through 1pm, and .4″ through 6pm. 1.7″ total more today. 107.9″ on the season.

Season animation- not exact, but good general idea

 

The models, still variations on the Sun-Mon system. Expect better agreement on them in next 24 hours as they get a better handle on things.

 

March 8.                 min.         max.       avg

Bitt 2NW valley     16.9        26.6      21.7

Garrett College      19.0        24.8      21.9

Can-Heights           14.9        22.5      18.7

CRN-Canaan          15.9       21.7       18.8

Cabin Mt                12.0        19.6       15.8

Cabin Mt north     13.3        21.7       17.5

Spruce Knob          10.6       21.2        15.9

Snowshoe/S.C.        12.2       18.9        15.5

Can-Valley Floor

Cresaptown           23.7        42.1        32.9

Green Bank Obs   20.2        29.2        24.7

7Springs                20.7         25.7        23.2

Squalls, some heavy, breaks of sun, and repeat was the theme of today. Very typical of a cold March day in the Alleghenies. A squall this a.m at 7:30-8am time dropped near a inch a mile south of Bittinger 2nw Valley while very little at Bittinger 2nw Valley.

Temps today at Bittinger 2nw Valley, Cabin Mt 4350, and national profile

7am snowfall- Bittinger 2nw Valley 1.1″ since last night 6pm. 4.1″ total through 7a.m with 3.4″ new depth, overall 4.2″/  96.7″ on the season – 7p.m snowfall update- 1.9″ from 7am to 6pm. Heavy squalls on and off today.  98.6″ on the season

Canaan Heights 4.3″ total through 7am. 112.3″ on the season. 7am through 7pm 2.8″. 115.1 on the season

http://data.canaanmtnsnow.com

7:15am update- Snow showers resume as we go later today through Friday. Early Friday a.m looks to be the period of greatest accumulation. 4-7″ totals throughout the region through Friday.

Daily snippets. A note on the snippets. 3rd pic from North Fork Mt looking towards Allegheny Front. Scroll up and look at the Canaan video for 12:30..2 different worlds

Snowshoe 9pm.

Big questions remain Sunday-Monday. How far north will the low track? We need the current system to lift away asap. That may try keep it south. Right now central/southern Alleghenies stand a better chance than the northern. This can change. Gut says should. Behind this it does look like we set up more upslope regardless of exact track.

 

 

March 7.                 min.         max.     avg

Bitt 2NW valley   23.1         35.2      29.1

Garrett College    23.3         32.9      28.1

Can-Heights         18.1         30.6      24.4

CRN-Canaan        20.4         30.6      25.5

Cabin Mt              15.1         29.5      22.3

Cabin Mt north  16.7         30.7      23.7

Spruce Knob      14.9          29.1     22.0

Snowshoe/S.C       16.9       33.4     25.2

Can-Valley Floor

Cresaptown        30.4         48.8      39.5

Green Bank Obs 26.0        36.4      31.2

7Springs              25.6        33.7       29.1

Periods of heavy snow burst. A brief peak of sun in thr afternoon here and there followed by more burst.

Snowfall- Bittinger 2nw Valley 2.0″ at 12pm and additional 1.0″ by 6pm just before the next heavy burst. 95.6″ on the season

Temps today at Bittinger 2nw Valley and Cabin Mt, along with national temp profile.

6:50 update pockets of heavy snow showers briefly covering roadways.

7am round coming into Mchenry, vids 5 minutes apart.

1:40 pm

Keysers Ridge 6pm

6:15 Keysers Ridge to Grantsville

Radar today

Daily Snippets

Snowshoe crankin out snow

Wisp cranking out snow

March 6.                min.        max.       avg

Bitt 2NW valley   18.1         30.2        24.1

Garrett College    26.0         31.5        28.8

Can-Heights          23.0        35.0        29.0

CRN-Canaan        22.7         36.2        29.4

Cabin Mt              23.5         33.3        28.4

Cabin Mt north  21.4          35.6       28.5

Spruce Knob       21.6         42.8*     32.2

Snowshoe/S.C.     25.9         32.2      29.0

Can-Valley Floor

Cresaptown         23.0        41.7       32.3

Green Bank Obs  20.9       37.9       29.4

7Springs                26.9      32.8       29.8

Depending on location, everything from some sleet pellets, spotty freezing drizzle, few flakes eastern areas, little drizzle, fog. …all very light.

 

Only resort I saw making snow this morning was Silver Creek at Snowshoe 

Nice Sunrise from Wisp

Daily Snippets- 3km nam oddly did well on Spruce Knob milder period in afternoon (although suspiciously too mild) .

 

         ON THE MODELS

“7 a.m update- Looking like a 2-5″ snow Wednesday a.m tbrough Thursday p.m for Garrett, Preston, Somerset, Fayette. 3-6″ across the high Wv ground in favored upslope areas. Thursday p.m through Friday p.m 4-6″ region wide with pops to 8″. Wednesday to Saturday totals 5-11″ north, 7-12″ Wv with pops in both areas over that amounts.

0z ECMWF loses weekend system. Likely typical error of the model struggling with the Rockies..0z and 6z GFS shifted back north from yesterdays 12z and 18z runs. System needs watched. ”

7pm update-  Watching a possible snow burst in the 5-9 am window that may affect morning in areas. Overall, status quo from the morning update. If any changes were made in regard to the snow Wednesday a.m through Friday p.m it would be to slightly up overall totals.  Thursday night into Friday lookd like really good upslope.

The weekend system.(Sun/Mon)  I dont expect models to get a handle on it until Friday. We have seen the possibilities. The Euro is struggling from systemic errors from this time period. The GFS had a formidable event. We need to clear the field of this first main event and inch closer to that time period. Overal the setup remains there for a storm. Many who follow the ECMWF will write this off.  Bigger pattern picture has this in play. I’ll spare all the graphics tonight.

8;40pm update- line of storms developing much better than modeled from Charleston to west of Morgantown. The HRRR is picking up on this somewhat. Needs watched as of this line or individual cells hold together, pockets of brief but very heavy snow can occur in the 10pm to 2am time window. Brief whiteouts, and poor travel would develop rapidly. Hrrr showing pockets of 1-2″ per snow amounts in which these pockets would not last but 30-45 minutes max. The line is better developed than modeled at 8:40pm.

 

 

March 5.              min.           max.        avg

Bitt 2NW valley  12.0

Garrett College    15.6       38.6     27.1

Can-Heights        9.2          34.6      21.9

CRN- Canaan     10.9         36.6      23.8

Cabin Mt            11.5         33.1     22.3

Cabin Mt north  11.7       34.3      23.0

Spruce Knob       10.0       41.2     25.6

Snowshoe/S.C      16.0       34.3     25.1

Can-Valley Floor

Cresaptown           20.9      50.6     35.5

Green Bank Obs    17.8      47.1    32.4

7Springs                  17.5     36.5      27.0

Mainly clear and a very cold start in areas….wooded aread, north facing slopes holding snow coat yet..light breezes, very dry air.

Temps today at Bittinger 2nw Valley(through 2pm) , Cabin Mt 4350 and low temp at The Glades bottoming out at 7.3° and national temp profile

 

Wisp this morning

Snowshoe this morning and stillshot 10:30pm

Timberline this morning

7Springs this morning

       ON THE MODELS

18z 3km NAM modeled temps from current through Thursday a.m. This model excels with tomorrow’s setup. Temps holding at or below freezing in north central Garrett and points north and east as well as areas of the southern Alleghenies. The just ever so slightl above freezing air pushes into Tucker. This is accompanied by very light precip that may put down a trace of ice in spots tomorrow.  Therefter into Wednesday, we start to talk snow.

 

 

18z GFS .. Snow opportunity Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, and Gfs operational at 12z and 18z trended south with Sunday event. Operational models will waffle each and every run. 18z was further northwest. GFS ensembles actually look better tonight for the event vs last night. Wednesday a.m through Friday snow totals look to run in the 5-10″ range with pops to 12″ in favorable areas.  Those being the favored upslope spots, and especially northern Alleghenies. I’d expect possible school delays mid to late week.

Amounts off the 18z GFS. Thats Wednesday morning, then Thursday morning, Friday morning, Saturday morning(these are running totals) then hopping to next Tuesday with the 18z GFS op with big system affecting southern Alleghenies. I do think that will trend NW.

 

 

12z ECMWF… Similiar to GFS. (Wednesday areas below 2500-2800′ may struggle to accumulate in afternoon). Amounts overall look similiar through Saturday a.m

Snowfall off 12z ECMWF, Wednesday morning, Thursday morning, Friday morning, Saturday morning and a jump to Tuesday. ECMWF quicker moving, and weaker with the big event at 12z after a monster at 0z.

 

The big system. Despite what the operational models did today, I still really like the setup. I think it does occur and we will be talking 100-150 miles this way or that way to say who gets it. The pattern to me argues a further NW trend vs what operational models did today.

 

Deep trough off west coast, amping the western Ridge, should allow phasing and a pullback further west than todays runs. I like the Tenn/Alabama border to Delmarva track currently. With widespread snow shield north.

12z ECMWF ensemble/control low locations…lots of members Sunday night on the north side yet. Overall mean has trended SE a tad on the ensembles, the control had the most significant difference. Will look for trends tonight on the new run.

 

Watching the steering wheel. How this digs, and progresses will direct the low more NE or ENE. Subtle differences from 0z to 12z ECMWF op run.

That PNA popping positive, is a good thing to turn it north. Will it be enough, time will tell. Does the trough deepen and go negative? Questions remain, but this is our best shot of the season. 

18z GFS ensembles, control/comparison to yesterday. First pic 18z gfs control yesterday for Sat night/Sun a.m. 2nd pic today. 3rd pic Sun night/Mon am, 4th pic today. 5th and 6th pic ensemble members for low position eith overall mean Sun-Mon and that last pic is 18z from yesterday. Euro trended SE weaker. GFS trended NW within its means.

 

Bottom line: Models are still getting a handle on a player thats not on the field yet. We need to get past these first systems mid to late week. The overall pattern is setup to support this storm. The question will come down as always to timing, phase, track. This is our best potential of the winter of a major storm.

 

 

March 4          min.           max.         avg

Bitt 2NW valley 20.8       36.5       28.6

Garrett College  20.8       37.7       29.2

Can-Heights       16.4       33.5       25.0

CRN-Canaan       12.0      34.0       23.0

Cabin Mt              12.9     31.1       22.0

Cabin Mt north   14.9     32.0       23.5

Spruce Knob        11.8     35.4      23.6

Snowshoe/S.C      16.0     29.7      22.9

Can-Valley Floor

Cresaptown          25.9      50.9       38.4

Green Bank Obs   19.9      43.7      31.8

7Springs                 21.7      37.9      29.8

Sun/shade season. Wooded, shaded, north facing areas holding onto some snow, any sunny areas, the March sun taketh away. (Illustrated well in pics) Few clouds early again, to a blue sky sun filled day.

Temps today at Bittinger 2nw Valley(only through 1pm, will update those asap) and Cabin Mt 4350(some high spots remaining below freezing today) aa well as national profile this afternoon and a closer view in. When you look at the satellite image of snowcover and then at the temps, easy to see the role it plays, especially across N.Y. Our area is combo of elevation, and snowcover in some areas.

 

 

Wisp this morning

Timberline this morning, and 10am stillshot

Silver Creek this morning

7Springs this a.m… hard to see from snow making

Snowshoe 9pm 

North Fork Mt looking west towards Spruce Mt 10am 

Photo by Stephanie Inskeep at Blackwater Falls today

Photo by James Dumire on North Fork Mt looking towards the Allegheny Front

Modis subset satellite image today…shows the thinning of snowcover,  to a dissapearing act in sunny areas.  In Tucker and high ground from Allegheny Front, to Cheat Mt and back north still looking pretty white at the midday image. Few areas in Somerset, Cambria that did well the othe day holding onto a wooded cover also. Spottier in Garrett. Dark areas in Wv mts are the red spruce forest. Further north in Pa along N.Y border and north is where the heart of the snow fell 2 days ago. 

Northern Hemisphere and North America snow extent

Nor’ Easter out to sea

ON    THE     MODELS

12z 3km NAM temps through Tuesday afternoon

12Z GFS Surface next 10 days. Best shot of something significant for the Alleghenies looks to be between the 11th and 13th(next Sun-Tues). That doesn’t mean nothing between now and then. Some upslope snows mid to late week. Slightly higher amounts to what we just seen 2 days ago, with a more prolonged period, with less in the way of extreme wind. More of what you would classify as typical for the area. 

12ZGFS modeled amounts on late Wednesday/Thursday/Friday/Saturday and then jumped till Wednesday a.m. This is only a model run, not a forecast. I am a tad high on thinking this occurs. Are their bugs in the ointment, rivers to cross, hills to climb?Yes! One being we first have to get through the midweek event and see where things stand. Then models can get a better handle on the one I think can be our main potential pf significance.  I love the fact the models teleconnections(pictured 12zgfs, ecmwf below) spike the PNA positive at the time frame. NAO is already negative and not badly positioned for us. Spike in PNA idicates to me, its not flying out to sea.

12ZECMWF at the surface. 

12ZECMWF modeled snowfall. End of Wednesday/Thursday/Friday/Saturday and then a jump to Tuesday a.m. The ECMWF is a tad faster in with that system. Again, I stress these are model runs. Not forecast. I do like this timeframe though.

12zECMWF ensembles for snow amounts next 15 days..with majority of this day 8-10 (10 to 1 ratio)

At 500mb on Ecmwf – op/ensemble for the 11-13th window

Big trough off west coast, reflection should be big trough on east coast. +PNA, west based -NAO which is favorable for us(if you like storms) that combo should keep this west and not out to sea if the models verify somewhat. As of today, and with weather, things change often, but as of today, I’m anxious to see how this timeframe plays out. Lots of potential. The 11-13th. AND we have winter weather before that as well.

 

March 3.               min.         max.       avg

Bitt 2NW valley  18.1         35.3        26.7

Garrett College   19.5        36.9        28.2

Can-Heights        14.6       31.5        23.0

CRN-Canaan       16.1        31.6      23.8

Cabin Mt             11.7        27.5     19.6

Cabin Mt north   12.7      29.8     21.2

Spruce Knob       10.4       28.2     19.3

Snowshoe/S.C      13.3      26.1      19.7

Can-Valley Floor

Cresaptown         29.0      50.2     39.4

Green Bank Obs 21.5      38.0      29.8

7Springs               21.2      37.2     29.2

Couple scattered clouds in morning, overall turning out to be a mostly sunny day.

Temps today at Bittinger 2nw Valley, (through 4pm)Cabin Mt and national profile

Snowshoe this morning

Wisp this morning

Timberline this morning

Pic below by TipTopThomas at Backbone Mt. 

Photo by Chip Chase at Whitegrass in Canaan today

Satellite view from Modis. Alleghenies easy to pick out

 

 

 

March 2.             min.         max.      avg

Bitt 2NW valley  21.9       31.7       26.8

Garrett College   23.3      30.4       26.8

Can-Heights        17.8      27.1       22.5

CRN-Canaan       20.1      24.3       24.1

Cabin Mt             14.7      24.4       19.5

Cabin Mt north 16.2      25.7       21.0

Spruce Knob      13.6      24.3      19.0

Snowshoe/S.C      15.4     25.9      20.6

Can-Valley Floor

Cresaptown          32.7      47.9      40.2

Green Bank Obs  24.5      33.9       29.2

7Springs               23.9       33.3      28.6

Snow this a.m, became snow showery and shut off this afternoon. Was most persistent and lasted the longest in the Wv mts. Winds were crazy overnight, through today. This afternoon was not as severe as this morning but still gusty.

Winds 50-60mph common

Temps today at Bittinger 2nw Valley(through 1pm will update) amd Cabin Mt, as well as national profile this afternoon

Snowfall amounts. Bittinger 2nw Valley : 2.8″, 92.6″ on the season.  This was a difficult snow to measure.  As mentioned before, this site is protected and minimally affected by wind. This event, no areas immune to wind. I did a on the board measurement. Which I am pretty sure may had some blow off but not on. Did several nearby on the ground checks, similar average. High ground literally had nothing on the ground to small drifts. There was no air left in the snow for sure.

Canaan Heights. 6.8″ total with the event. 107.8″ on the season

http://data.canaanmtnsnow.com

Snowshoe reporting 6″ from the event

Snowshoe this a.m

 

Other webcam shots, etc

 

 

 

 

 

Wind gust ramped up to 65mph last night on northern Cabin before the anemometer froze up. Same for some other sites. Very well within reason that 70-80mph gust occured.

Wisp cranking out snow tonight

Snowshoe as well

7Springs

 

Hidden Valley

Pic by David Faunce, Blackwater Falls State Park sled run. Making snow and will be open this weekend

The storm and setup…radar not picking up on the upslope much earlier today. Typical

 

 

Chesapeake Bay bridge closed

Looking ahead, watching mid next week. Possibly rain/snow  over to a decent upslope event.