July 31.                       min.        max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley        59.3        70.3      64.8

Garrett College       59.4         73.7      66.5

Can-Heights            56.8          72.4     64.6

CRN-Canaan

Cabin Mt                 55.2        69.6       62.4

Cabin Mt north     55.8        71.6        63.7

Spruce Knob         54.0         67.3       60.6

Snowshoe               57.6        66.2       61.9

Can-Valley Floor   49.1         77.7       63.4

7Springs                 58.4         66.4       62.4

Cloudy, some high ground fog, east flow…clouds held tough in the traditional cooler east flow locations. Breaks elsewhere..Heavy period of rain after 4pm.

Temp profile this afternoon2018-08-01-08-10-29

 

(July Summary at page bottom)

Radar with estimates I picked up .9 at Bittinger 2nw Valley, Garrett College also at .9

Screenshot_20180731-221056

Satellite this afternoon

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

July Summary

Bittinger 2nw Valley

 

-days with mins in 40s   10

-days with mins in 50s    17

-days  with mins in 60s     4

-days with max 60s     3

-days with max 70s    20

-days with max 80s     8

-warmest min 65.7

– coolest max 65.9

CRN-CANAANScreenshot_20180806-081712

Temperatures

PrecipitationPRISM_ppt_provisional_4kmM3_anomaly_201807

July 30.                  min.       max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley      54.5       65.9      60.2

Garrett College      61.0       69.8     65.4

Can-Heights            57.0       69.7    63.3

CRN-Canaan           54.5       69.2    61.9

Cabin Mt                 55.2       65.7     60.4

Cabin Mt north     55.9        64.8     60.3

Spruce Knob         54.0        67.3      60.6

Snowshoe              55.6        68.4      62.0

Can-Valley Floor   56.7        71.1     63.9

7Springs                 59.5        65.6     62.5

Heavy downpours before dawn in spots then a steadier rain mid morning into the afternoon. Skies broke a little towards evening. Wv high ground ran a rain cooled mid 50s for part of the afternoon.

Temp profile this afternoon2018-07-31-08-13-37

Radar and estimates..picked up .7  today at Bittinger 2nw Valley

Screenshot_20180730-215737

Satellite this afternoon

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

July 29.                     min.      max.        avg

Bitt 2nw valley       45.4       73.3        59.3

Garrett College       48.6       77.6        63.1

Can-Heights            48.8       70.0        59.4

CRN-Canaan           47.7       72.6       60.1

Cabin Mt                 51.6        68.9       60.2

Cabin Mt north      53.2        67.8      60.5

Spruce Knob          49.8         68.0      58.9

Snowshoe              55.2          68.2      61.6

Can-Valley Floor   41.5         76.5      59.0

7Springs                 58.6         73.2      65.9

Mostly clear to start, more cloudiness wv mts vs north,  valley fog widespread.  The day much like yesterday had building clouds and at times skies were mostly cloudy. A few showers along the Allegheny Front and southern Alleghenies.

Temp profile this afternoon2018-07-30-08-14-13

 

The Glades under mainly clear skies bottoming out at 38.2°2018-07-29-21-22-19

2018-07-30-08-13-15

Screenshot_20180730-114650Radar and radar estimates through 8pm

Screenshot_20180729-200612

Satellite this afternoon

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

 

 

 

18z 3km Nam

2m Temperatures

2m Dew Points

Simulated Radar

July 28.                     min.       max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley       49.6        71.7     60.6

Garrett College       55.5        72.4     63.9

Can-Heights            54.9        69.9     62.4

CRN-Canaan         52.5         70.1      61.3

Cabin Mt                53.4        68.5      60.9

Cabin Mt north     55.4        68.4      61.9

Spruce Knob          53.4        66.6      60.0

Snowshoe               55.0       65.8      60.4

Can-Valley Floor    47.3       72.7     60.0

7Springs                  58.2        70.3    64.2

Clear start, more clouds Wv mts. Then building clouds, with a sun/cloud mix the remainder of the day with a 60-80% cloud cover at times.

Temp profile this afternoon2018-07-29-13-51-53

 

2018-07-29-13-58-24Rainfall occured with the few remaining showers last night after dusk, including that here for the 24 hour estimated total. Screenshot_20180728-212217

Satellite this afternoon

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

18Z 3km Nam

2m Temperatures

2m Dew Points

Simulated Radar

10m Winds

Cloud Cover

July 27.                        min.       max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley         57.7        72.7      65.2

Garrett College        62.0         75.3      68.6

Can-Heights             61.4         76.3      68.9

CRN-Canaan            60.0        74.9      67.6

Cabin Mt                  59.4        73.9      66.6

Cabin Mt north       60.4        75.0      67.7

Spruce Knob           57.6        71.1      64.3

Snowshoe                58.6        69.4      64.0

Can-Valley Floor    47.8        77.0       62.4

7Springs                 62.0         71.1       66.6

Mix of clouds and sun to start, quickly clouding over. A period in the afternoon with a line of passing light showers. That passed and skies broke….after dusk, a few more brief passing showers pushed through parts of the area(snippet of that below radar estimates)

Temp profile this afternoon2018-07-28-07-13-32

 

2018-07-28-07-12-16Radar with radar estimated precip

Screenshot_20180727-200811

Screenshot_20180727-210545Satellite this afternoon

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

 

 

 

18Z 3km Nam

2m Temperatures

Dew Points

Simulated Radar

10m Winds

Cloud Cover Percentage

12Z ECMWF

Next week model indicating ridge backing in from the east. This “may” for a time shift the precip shield over the Alleghenies that has overall missed out on appreciable precip over the past 7 days and in some areas, the month.

12Z ECMWF 6 hourly precip

500mb heights and anomalies

2m Temperature anomalies. Likely a setup of cloudy afternoons with some periods of rain holding temps slightly below normal for maxes, and cloud cover, holding temps at or above at night

Another look at the last 7 day observed precipScreenshot_20180727-134351

July 26.                       min.      max.       avg

Bitt 2nw valley        58.1       77.6       67.8

Garrett College        61.0       78.4      69.7

Can-Heights            59.5        74.2      66.8

CRN-Canaan           57.6        74.1      65.8

Cabin Mt                 57.7        71.6      64.6

Cabin Mt north      58.6        72.7     65.6

Spruce Knob          56.5        70.5     63.5

Snowshoe               58.8        70.2     64.5

Can-Valley Floor    48.2        77.0     62.6

7Springs                  61.5        75.0     68.2

Dreary looking start, some fog, low clouds and that then burnt off for a mix of clouds and sun of varying amounts from late morning, through evening with the sunny side of things increasing as the day went by.

Temp profile this afternoon2018-07-27-08-30-05

Satellite this afternoon

Radar, mostly last evening in where it did rain, with 24 hour estimates running back to 7pm 7/25

Screenshot_20180726-195534

Flow

surface features and 500mb height anomalies

500mb flow

SST(Sea Surface Temperature) anomalies and 7 day change

Off The Models

Meteogram off the 12z ECMWF for Garrett County

K2G4_2018072612_dx_240

12Z ECMWF

3 hourly precip

Total Precipitation

18z GFS

6 hourly precipitation

Total Precipitation

18Z 3km Nam

2m Temperatures

2m Dew Points

Simulated Radar

Total Precipitation

10:30pm reality, model comparison

The new 0z 3km Nam run is in. So thats the go to choice. The formula I’v been watching, to get a good feel for what the cold frost pockets can achieve is

1- 10m wind off the 3km Nam calm. In this case, we can check that off. At least for the valley spots. While 3km is high res, its still not tight enough to pinpoint details, but gives great hints.

hires_uv10m_dir_wv_4

2- Cloud cover, are we seeing clear skies. The 3km nam does very well at this. In this case, checked this off. hires_tcloud_wv_4

3- 2m Dewpoints. Pretty big component. Again, 3km nam is detailed, but not tight enough for minute details. The observations and comparisons has led to the conclusion on many many occasions, that, with a dry air mass incoming, or in place, calm winds, clear skies, subtract 4-8° from the 3km nam modeled dewpoint and that is generally where the 2m temp comes in at in the cold pockets. Placement of the modeled 2m Dewpoints is not important. If conditions above(1&2) check off the list. Ex. If the models lowest dewpoint is in Elkins at 45 and Canaan reads 55 on the model,  Canaans frost pocket actual dewpoint, air temp, if conditions(calm, clear)of 1 and 2 are equal to Elkins, (on the model) reality should run 38-42° 2m air temp.  In the case below off tonights 0z 3km nam, 56.2° dewpoint is the min at the example time. All in all for this example, lowest dewpoints are in the ballpark area of the conversation, despite it doesn’t have to be. hires_dew2m_wv_4

4- While in cases of east flows, CAD events, even daytime maxes with a breeze I love the 3km nam, (best there is bar none, beats HRRR easily) it is not good at hitting cold pockets. Again, not in tight enough for small details even at 3km, but I would think as in the current case, and many other times observed, it should do better. With 0 wind, 56° dewpoint, clear skies, why is it not modeling pockets of cooler temps? 3km should be enough to do that. This aspect of the model is one of its problems on 2m temps. Its not always great at convective storms and will falsely on the model cool locations that do not occur. That’s another downfall.  It is though great for frontal timing however. Currently, thumbs down for tonights example on temps. Way to warm. hires_t2m_wv_4

Reality views. While the valley frost pocket has no anemometer, its evident conditions are calm, while at 4000′ a 10mph exist. The model, looks decent. At 4000 its 63°, not bad on the model, 51° in the colder valley area, no clue on the model, except using the 1,2,3 formula from observations of the model to reality.

Reality at a little past 10:30pm

(To note, Hrrr last night showed clear skies through daybreak, 3km nam showed increasing cloud cover and temps creeping up, 3km Nam did well.)

July 25.                    min.       max.         avg

Bitt 2nw valley      59.5       72.4         65.9

Garrett College      61.8       71.7         66.7

Can-Heights           60.9       69.8         65.4

CRN-Canaan          61.4       69.8         65.6

Cabin Mt                58.3        65.7        62.0

Cabin Mt north     61.0        68.0        64.5

Spruce Knob         57.6        65.3        61.4

Snowshoe              58.6        66.9        62.8

Can-Valley Floor   56.7       71.4        64.0

7Springs                 62.5        71.4       66.9

Cloudy, foggy, showers today, very late peaks of sun in spots…..once again, the rain free zone thats been mainly dry all week, recieved very little today. Again a cloudy, breezy night holding temps up.

Temp profile this afternoon2018-07-26-09-19-29

 

Radar with estimates…picked up .2 today at Bittinger 2nw Valley. Most all week

Screenshot_20180725-195033.jpg

Satellite

Flow

500mb flow

Night Owl(poor quality)

 

 

 

Precip past several days. This is listed as 7 day totals, but most of this since Saturday…Models from Sunday, models really from last week were VERY poor in the Alleghenies. Rainfall never materialized as it did east and west. Last weekend it looked like the mts would miss out. By all available data, it looked for certain appreciable rain amounts of 1-3″ would occur Tue-Thur. It did not occur. Below in pic one is observed, then pic 2 and 3 were model putouts at 12z in the 22nd

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

July 24.                   min.        max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley      65.7       73.3       69.5

Garrett College      65.6       75.8      70.7

Can-Heights           63.2       69.7      66.4

CRN-Canaan          64.2       71.3      67.7

Cabin Mt                61.0       67.1      64.0

Cabin Mt north     61.7      66.4       64.0

Spruce Knob         59.9       65.7       62.8

Snowshoe              60.4       70.2       65.3

Can-Valley Floor  63.1       72.9       68.0

7Springs                64.5        70.8      67.7

Cloudy, high ground fog at times, again the eastern ridges in that more than the central to western Alleghenies. Breezy all night, into the day and that once again held overnight lows up. Minimal swings between mins and maxes in a pattern like this. Scattered showers but once again on repeat, the most rain has stayed east..

Temp profile this afternoon2018-07-25-14-00-53

 

 

Radar & 24hr radar estimates through 7pm

Screenshot_20180724-193944

Satellite this morning and afternoon

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Rain along Savage Mt, dry just west

 

July 23.                  min.         max.       avg

Bitt 2nw valley      65.2        73.8     69.5

Garrett College      65.2        76.5      70.8

Can-Heights           61.5        73.9      67.7

CRN-Canaan          63.1        74.2      68.6

Cabin Mt                59.7        68.5      64.1

Cabin Mt north    60.4        70.3      65.3

Spruce Knob        58.8         68.5     63.6

Snowshoe             58.8         65.7     62.2

Can-Valley Floor 62.6         77.2     69.9

7Springs               62.8         72.5     67.7

Overcast, fog on the eastern ridges. Some scattered light showers. Main rain again east. Flooding well east. Late day skies broke a little. SE flow continues. Winds held up overnight into the a.m preventing much of a temp dropoff last night.

Temp profile this afternoon2018-07-24-20-17-36

 

Radar with estimates and the before mentioned flooding. Pic from Hershey park Pa

 

 

Satellite this afternoon

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies

 

 

500mb flow

Fog rollling back across eastern ridges from Roaring plains on north, as North Fork cam remained fog free at 8:50pm…..GCC windchart illustrating the SE winds today.

 

Screenshot_20180723-211336.jpg

July 22.                       min.       max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley         56.3        70.6      63.4

Garrett College        57.2         73.1      65.1

Can-Heights             54.1         68.9      61.5

CRN-Canaan           55.5           69.8     62.7

Cabin Mt.                52.3           65.1     58.7

Cabin Mt north     52.7           66.7     59.7

Spruce Knob         52.5           63.0     57.7

Snowshoe              56.3           64.4     60.3

Can-Valley Floor   54.3           71.6    62.9

7Springs                 54.8           69.4    62.1

Mostly sunny start for the first hour of the day., pockets of valley fog…clouds quickly building. Overcast, dimmed sun, southeast breeze with a few isolated pockets of showers, some fog building on the eastern Alleghenies in the mid to late afternoon

Temp profile this afternoon2018-07-23-08-12-33

 

 

Radar with 24 hour precip estimates

Screenshot_20180722-214348

Satellite this afternoon

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies

 

Pics today…some of those early changing leaves, mainly due to stress in area they are located.

Glade Run at Bittinger 2nw Valley water temp 58.5, tributary at swamp on the mountain at 61.5 after traversing through open sunny conditions.

 

2018-07-22-18-43-07

Pic by Bryan Lemasters at Dolly Sods this morningFB_IMG_1532517174184

Rainfall on the month in the area of the videos, pics above has been below normal, as some nearby areas have been above. The isolated nature of the heavy rains last weekend contributing to that.. The haves and have nots. Heavy rain this weekend passing east.

July to date

 

Upcoming this week off the 12z ECMWF and 12z GFS. Brunt of which looks to be Tuesday into Wednesday.