Sept 30.             min.       max.       avg

Bitt 2nw valley   40.5        69.2     54.8

Garrett College   43.5        75.8    59.7

Can-Heights        47.6        70.5    59.0

CRN-Canaan       42.2        72.0     57.1

Cabin Mt.             49.5        69.1     59.3

Cabin Mt north   50.2        72.3    61.2

Spruce Knob x station down

Snowshoe           53.2         66.2     59.7

Can-Valley Floor  37.0      74.8     55.9

7Springs               49.5        69.9     59.7

Partly Sunny day.  Really a perfect mild fall day.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

2018-10-01-17-12-01

Canaan Mt bog as seen from Cabin Mt. Temp bottomed out at 37° on the bog, vs upper 40s, low 50s outside of that pocket across the top.

 

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Pics today

 

Foliage at present- Anthracnose has took its toll on the typical early changing vibrant maples. From yesterday to today. Things of notice. The high ground across the sods, excluding the reds of the huckleberry/blueberry. Trees are mainly bare or of poor dull color on what remains. The huckleberry/blueberry reds look like a peak in 7-10 days is likely. That said, some are dropping reds, while some half green. Spruce Knob and west,70- 80% bare trees. Riding to Spruce Knob lake, color that was shared on social media a week ago, was basically gone today. This holds true for the areas around the Sinks and along Gandy Creek.

Up to Canaan the lower 2/3rds of Cabin Mt and areas within the valley look like a peak in 10-14 days. This area, for whatever reason looks less affected by anthracnose vs surrounding areas. East side of Canaan Mt looks poor, and on top of Canaan Mt, currently at peak, and not anywhere near as vibrant as typical. Once those maples drop, it will be basically bare. The west side of Canaan Mt, fair amount of color with a peak in 6-10 days.

Backbone Mt and west, some color, lots of green. 2-3 weeks away for good color if it exists.

The holdouts for the best color looks to be portions within Canaan that hold a heavy concentration of birch, and the Blackwater Canyon. The birch look largely unaffected. Peak in 14 days +/-.

North in Garrett. Colors are advancing. Again the typical early changing maples, mostly are bare. Around Deep Creek Lake, which holds a high concentration of oak varieties. Mostly green. Late month when they turn there dull color and oaks are also affected by anthracnose. Marsh Hill has lots of birch, as does Swallow Falls area, expect a peak similiar to Blackwater…

  Month Summary

Temps Sept 2018

 

Bittinger 2nw Valley

 

CRN-CanaanScreenshot_20181001-193253

Precipitation

 

I finished with 11.2″ at Bittinger 2nw Valley ….elsewhere,

 

Sept 29.                    min.        max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley       43.8        63.1      53.4

Garrett College       47.0        66.0      56.5

Can-Heights            48.3        62.5      55.4

CRN-Canaan           45.0        64.2      54.6

Cabin Mt                 48.6        64.0      56.3

Cabin Mt north     49.8         62.6     56.2

Spruce Knob        X

Snowshoe              48.4        60.4      54.4

Can-Valley Floor  41.5        64.9      53.2

7Springs                 49.5       59.0      54.2

Cloudy start, to a partly cloudy to partly sunny day.

Temp profile this afternoon

2018-10-01-17-11-072018-10-01-17-03-16

Radar-Void of precip

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Comparisons

Overall folliage season has come and across Spruce Knob and west, mostly gone for the season. Foliage was brief, not vivid and now lots of bare trees. Anthracnose I suspect played a big role. Any foliage maps that say anything lrss than past peak in this area, simply is not correct. Dolly Sods, the reds of the huckleberries, blueberries. While red-ish, peak is likely a week off. However some peaked in a few patches, and are falling off, some yet are half green. A very abnormal season. The trees across the sods. west of the Allegheny Front. Bare, to dull color, few greens. Again, poor season. Canaan Valley, not a lot of valley color yet, with some dull color and a few bare patches.

East side path atop Spruce Knob 2018-2017

South end of Whispering Spruce Trail viewing west 2018-2017

East overlook Spruce Knob 2018-2017

Western side of Spruce Knob 2018-2017

Sept 28.               min.        max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley    45.4       63.2       54.3

Garrett College    49.9       66.5       58.2

Can-Heights         50.9       64.6       57.8

CRN-Canaan        50.7       65.7       58.2

Cabin Mt              49.8       63.3     56.6

Cabin Mt north   45.9      63.3      54.6

Spruce Knob       48.2       63.7      55.9

Snowshoe            50.2       62.4      56.3

Can-Valley Floor 42.8       66.7     54.7

7Springs               48.1        61.3     54.7

Cloudy, foggy, dreary start, skies began breaking midday for a blue sun shiny afternoon that has been rare lately. Last night’s rain ended a predawn.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm Screenshot_20180928-213642

Satellite this afternoon

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

On the models

Short term only. Busy and on the go, time limited. Tomorrow looks dry, cool, slightly milder Sunday. Nighttime temps have a outside shot of dipping to the 30s in the coldest valleys.

Comparison

Not a great comparison in foliage, but a comparison vs last year. 1 day early this year.  Reds of the blueberry, huckleberry MUCH earlier last year. They were peaking from mid Sept last year through late Sept.  Still showing green yet this year.

 

 

 

 

 

some other pics on the day

Screenshot_20180928-170459

Sept 27.                  min.        max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley       49.3       55.8      52.5

Garrett College       49.1       57.3      53.2

Can-Heights            48.2       56.4      52.3

CRN-Canaan           50.1       56.2      53.1

Cabin Mt                 46.4       55.6      51.0

Cabin Mt north      45.5      54.3       49.9

Spruce Knob          46.8      56.5      51.6

Snowshoe               50.4      57.7     55.2

Can-Valley Floor   50.4       58.8    55.6

7Springs                 48.6       53.1    50.8

Cloudy, to rain, rain began earlier in the southern Alleghenies.. Rain, steady to moderate, at times heavy. Fog across wv high ground.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm event totals, including the wee hours in to the 28th when the rain halted. Bittinger 2nw Valley 1.7, Garrett College 1.47, Canaan Heights 1.17, CRN 1.68, Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 1.87, Northern Cabin Mt 1.61, Spruce Knob 1.74, Snowshoe 1.61, 7Springs 1.5

Screenshot_20180927-211944

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

On the models..

Short term, heavy rain early tonight, into the predawn hours of Friday, before becoming scattered, and light and shutting off  with the clouds breaking some tomorrow. Chilly few days ahead before moderating Sunday. Monitoring a shot at some scattered pockets of 30s Saturday and or Sunday a.m. Be careful out tonight with the flooding occuring.

18z 3km Nam 2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam Simulated Radar

18z GFS precip type next 384hrs

Sept 26.                   min.     max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley      56.0      68.9      62.4

Garrett College      57.3      69.6      63.4

Can-Heights           57.2      68.5      62.8

CRN-Canaan          56.4      67.5      61.9

Cabin Mt                55.9       62.4     59.1

Cabin Mt north     54.5      66.9     60.7

Spruce Knob         56.5      63.5      60.0

Snowshoe              57.6      61.7      59.7

Can-Valley Floor   59.2     70.3      64.7

7Springs                 53.1     67.5      60.3

Cloudy, and a showery day. More so than anticipated. That did cutoff the severe risk.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm , radar and estimates not doing the best today picking up on all the showers. Picked up .35 at Bittinger 2nw Valley, Garrett College .3, Canaan Heights .3, CRN .22, Cabin Mt at Bald Knob .21, Northern Cabin Mt .28, Spruce Knob .08, Snowshoe .26, 7Springs .28

Screenshot_20180926-214243

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

On the models

Showers and periods of rain look to return tomorrow afternoon and run into Friday morning before becoming more widely scattered and shutting down. Very isolated shot at a pop up Mt shower Saturday.

18z 3km Nam 2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam Simulated Radar

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs

12z ECMWF total precip through the next rain tomorrow into early Friday. 12z also including this afternoons rain

ecmwf_tprecip_wv_11-1

18z GFS precip type next 384hrs

18z GFS total precip through the rain event tomorrow into Fridaygfs_tprecip_wv_10-1

Sept 25                 min.       max.       avg

Bitt 2nw valley      56.2        69.1      62.6

Garrett College      56.7        70.8      63.7

Can-Heights           55.5        68.5      62.0

CRN-Canaan          57.5        70.5      64.0

Cabin Mt.               53.4         66.2      59.8

Cabin Mt north     53.8        69.4      61.6

Spruce Knob         54.1        64.6       59.3

Snowshoe              57.0        61.7       59.3

Can-Valley Floor   56.1       74.3      65.2

7Springs                 54.3        65.7      60.0

Rainy start, rainy morning, a mini break midday, early afternoon, rsin mid afternoon, early evening before quieting down.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

 

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm. At Bittinger 2nw Valley, picked up 1.15 since last evening at 6pm… Garrett College 1.0, Canaan Heights .6, CRN .41, Cabin at Bald Knob .48, Northern Cabin Mt .6, Spruce Knob .18, Snowshoe .19, 7Springs 1.0

 

 

 

 

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

 

On the models….

After a rainy day today, a mini reprieve before eyes go to the cold front tomorrow late afternoon or evening. This may contain some severe weather. Looks like the brunt stays north, but needs watched. Beyond that, a shot at some rsin Thursday night into Friday before “hopefully” a dry weekend for a change.

18z 3km Nam 2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam Simulated Radar

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs

12z ECMWF precip through tomorrows cold front(*some of this afternoons rain included in this)ecmwf_tprecip_wv_8

18z GFS precip type next 384hrs

gfs_tprecip_wv_7

Sept 24                  min.       max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley    53.5        57.1       55.3

Garrett College    53.6        57.7      55.6

Can-Heights         53.5        56.0      54.8

CRN-Canaan        54.4        57.9      56.2

Cabin Mt              50.9        53.6       52.2

Cabin Mt north   50.5        54.0       52.2

Spruce Knob       51.1        54.1       52.6

Snowshoe            54.3        57.0      55.7

Can-Valley Floor 54.7       58.1      56.4

7Springs                52.4      55.4      53.9

Cloudy, fog, drizzly….dreary sums up today

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm, .15 at Bittinger 2nw Valley…apologies for poor radar image. Normal site is down

Screenshot_20180924-213804Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

On the models….

Showery day tomorrow and milder….then eyes go to a cold front late Wednesday with some storms…

18z 3km Nam 2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam Simulated Radar

Longer range, still no extended dry periods in sight, and the model battle of what happens in the long term remains. As of now, the intrusion of the chill looks weak, and largely gets turned off to the north. That first 10 days of October contains lots of question. Some model runs break the ridge, some do not. Some bring in the seasons first flakes, some runs hold above seasonal temps. Worried(as a cold lover) the ridge has holding power until week 2 Oct. Part of that is the MJO..

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs

12z ECMWF total precip through Wednesdays cold frontecmwf_tprecip_wv_11

18z GFS precip type next 384hrs

18z GFS Total precip through Wednesdays cold frontgfs_tprecip_wv_10

18z GFS 2m temperatures next 384hrs

Long range,18z GFS ensembles maintain the ridge in the east through the period. ECMWF is very similiargefs_t2anom_16_noram_1-7Now look at that pattern the GEFS holds on to and compare that to MJO correlation that is holding phase 8 and 1

Look at what phase 8 and 1 is correlated to bring. So, that may be a hint, that ridge will fight to hold.

This is not to say a strong front can’t push through during this. A few ECMWF and GFS ensemble members see the cold booting the ridge. A few 12z ECMWF ensemble seeing flakes in early Oct.

Pics today

 

 

 

Sept 23.                   min.      max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley     51.9       54.6       53.2

Garrett College     51.8      55.4        53.6

Can-Heights          54.0      59.6        56.8

Cabin Mt               51.6       56.7       54.1

Cabin Mt north    50.2       55.2       52.7

Spruce Knob        52.0       55.6       53.8

Snowshoe             55.0       57.9       56.5

Can-Valley Floor 54.0      60.6       57.3

7Springs               50.4       53.2      51.8

Cloudy, some fog, times of rain, drizzle, and just cloudiness, east breeze

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm, .23 rain at Bittinger 2nw Valley, .7 at Bald Knob, .5 at CRN at Canaan, .4 at Spruce Knob

Screenshot_20180923-213531Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

On the models…

Rain, cool yet tomorrow into early Tuesday. Milder Tuesday but the rain threat exist into Wednesday. Not constant, but a on and off fashion.

Further out, the chill for the weekend looks weak, and overall the big chill is delayed. Models differ on the outcome. Some ensemble members still carry the 1st flake threat in early Oct..some members keep the stubborn ridge in place directing the chill further north. Models in limbo on that, plenty of time for things to change.

18z 3km Nam 2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam Simulated Radar

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs

12z ECMWF 2m Temperatures

12z ECMWF rainfall through Wednesdayecmwf_tprecip_wv_15-5

18z GFS precip type next 384hrs

18z GFS precip through Wednesdaygfs_tprecip_wv_14-2

The slow go on the foliage. There is some decent fall color on Canaan Mt, and pockets. Really depends on tree type, soil, location to those areas. West side of Cabin Mt mostly green yet. Here is a comparison of 9/22/17, to today 9/23/182018-09-23-17-30-52

Some other pics on the day

 

 

Photo by Charles Cropp at Spruce Knob LakeFB_IMG_1537828769500

Sept 22.                 min.       max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley    54.5        69.4      61.9

Garrett College    55.4        69.7     62.5

Can-Heights         55.7        68.6     62.2

CRN-Canaan        56.0        69.7    62.8

Cabin Mt              52.5        66.2    59.3

Cabin Mt north   52.7       66.9     59.8

Spruce Knob       54.0       64.8     59.4

Snowshoe            57.9       66.9     62.4

Can-Valley Floor 56.5      71.1      63.8

7Springs               50.7       64.5      57.6

Partly cloudy skies through the heart of the day, with periods of mostly cloudy skies

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm At Bittinger 2nw Valley , picked up .25 past 24 hours

Screenshot_20180922-210943

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

On the models….

Rain pressing in overnight, and south of the mason dixon, a wet Sunday setting up. Temps holding 52-58 for most, 47-53 Wv high ground. Wet weather continues into Tuesday. Overall looking like a 1-3″ rain event. Chilly weather continues through Monday with moderation Tuesday.

Further out, models have delayed and backed off how much “chill” pushes in for early October. The 18z GFS returned to a stronger push Oct 5-8… However it originally appeared next weekend was the onset. That is not to say we won’t see some valley cold before that period. Concerned about the amount of warmth off the mid Atlantic coast feeding back and keeping a stubborn ridge and sw flow aloft , limiting the fronts ability to push through and bring in early season cold. As wave lengths shorten, and cold builds north, that location of warmth can be our friend for inland snows. Way far off and loose speculation.

18z 3km Nam 2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam Simulated Radar

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs

12z ECMWF 2m Temperatures

12z ECMWF precip totals through Tuesdayecmwf_tprecip_wv_15-4

18z GFS precip type next 384hrs

18z GFS 2m temperatures

18z GFS precip totals through Tuesdaygfs_tprecip_wv_14-1

18z GEFS ensemble means… 500mb height anomalies and 2m temp. Really just holds the overall pattern through week 1 Oct. The 18z op run was different, more importantly the 12z ensemble mean looked cooler Oct 5-8. Again, models may adjust and pull back as we get closer.. Only time will tell. The “warm” look to the GFS ensembles that are nearly opposite of only a few days ago.

 

leaves…..

The very poor foliage look continues..Some of the typical more vivid pretty locations with lots of maples are just plain  “blah”. Lots of premature leaf drop, and sickly speckled looking dull colors, with healthy looking trees mainly green yet, really poor colors. I do believe this will be the poorest season for maple colors that I can recall. Birch, birch dominates the Blackwater Canyon, Swallow falls state park, some of the cooler high ground river, creek ravines, and mixed with Red Spruce up high…I still believe they are largely unaffected by anthracnose thats plagging some other varieties, namely making that are so vivid usually in the fall.

Example of a area that typically very colorful, pretty. South of Bittinger, north of the Glades. Brenneman Hill in Garrett County Md. Lots of bare trees. I’d estimate 40%+. Other trees sickly, dull looking leaves with red oaks mostly green, with some of them affected by anthracnose as well, with brown patches on the leaves. The chamber of commerce would scream “shut up”, but very low hopes of vivid foliage from current views of the area. Word is, many areas through the Alleghenies are seeing similar occurences. Green, or yet dull and or premature leaf loss. 2018-09-22-17-15-17

Sept 21.                    min.      max.    avg

Bitt 2nw valley       58.5      78.8      68.6

Garrett College       62.4      81.4     71.9

Can-Heights            63.5      77.2     70.3

CRN-Canaan           63.1      77.8      70.5

Cabin Mt.                61.5       75.7     68.6

Cabin Mt north      61.5       76.1     68.8

Spruce Knob          60.6       74.5     67.5

Snowshoe               61.0       72.1    66.6

Can-Valley Floor    51.3      80.2     65.7

7Springs                  63.8      78.0     70.9

Partly cloudy, breezy. . a very brief(less than a minute) light late day shower

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm

Screenshot_20180921-211408

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

On the models….

Short term, much cooler weekend, showers possible tomorrow. drifting southward and mainly mason dixon south showers Sunday with highest threat Wv mts.  Much cooler. Some high Wv ground may hold 46-51…

18z 3km Nam 2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam Simulated Radar

Longer range…Will wait until tomorrow to post the op runs, but some new model data today holds a stronger ridge in the east that deflects the brunt of the biggest potential cold push of the season Sept 30- Oct 6… Interesting seeing the change in the ensembles so much after so much consistency…. Will wait several runs to see if this new scenario holds before posting more.

18z GEFS from yesterday to 18z GEFS today. 500mb height anomalies and 2m temp outlook.