Sept 4.                         min.     max.    avg

Bitt 2nw valley         57.4       81.7      69.5

Garrett College         60.9       85.1      73.0

Can-Heights              61.2       81.2      71.2

CRN-Canaan              57.6      82.1      69.8

Cabin Mt                    65.8      78.8      72.3

Cabin Mt north        67.6       79.7      73.6

Spruce Knob            62.1       76.3      69.2

Snowshoe                 67.1       77.2      72.1

Can-Valley Floor     53.8       83.5      68.6

7Springs                   72.6       84.8      78.7

Mainly clear start, valley fog again….clouds bubbling mid morning, showers, thunderstorms popping up midday.

Temp profile this afternoon2018-09-05-08-17-52

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm

Screenshot_20180904-210530

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

Evening storm. Viewable from Mchenry area looking west.. Storm in Preston County. Radar echo tops showing 40k feet with the precip tops.

Monitoring the trees

Continuing watching the premature foliage drop. Especially of the maples in areas. Wild cherry looking poor as well.

Ramp seeds maturing2018-09-04-16-51-38

Few pics today

Sandhill cranes return2018-09-04-16-47-29

Screenshot_20180904-214513

Models for the weekend

Going to for today resist posting rainfall amounts. Flooding potential does exist for this weekend. While there is no lock on where the boundary and rain goes, there is a strong leaning of the heavy rains pushing across the Alleghenies. Timing, track of this rain threat does need watched. For now, I will post the modeled temps off the models for the weekend, as I do that, Saturday will be determined by how fast the rain moves in. If it arrives early, temps holding 55-62, later temps 62-68, Sunday looks wet. Temps holding 52-60 as it looks now.  Temps off the 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS

Having said that, I will post the operational runs, with the ensemble mean precip. With the GFS being the most significant at this point.  Stay monitored to this, as it has “potential” to cause significant flooding, especially due to the already wet ground. Here we go, the 18z GFS op

The ensemble mean precip(using this as the op run seems a bit far fetched)..gefs_qpf_mean_ma_27

The 12z ECMWF op run, still significant, but very manageable.

The 12z ECMWF ensemble mean precip….. So all in all, we need to watch to see how this pans out. Is it a 1′-2″ rain or a 3-5″ rain. eps_qpf_m_ma_30

This year, September off to the hot start, last year the exact opposite

NHC evening tropical updateScreenshot_20180904-214853

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