Sept 20.                     min.       max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley       48.8        76.0       62.4

Garrett College       52.3        80.0       66.1

Can-Heights            56.6        75.6       66.1

CRN-Canaan           52.4        76.5      64.5

Cabin Mt                 57.4         75.0      66.2

Cabin Mt north      57.6        76.5      67.0

Spruce Knob          57.9         74.3     66.1

Snowshoe               60.6        73.4     67.0

Can-Valley Floor    50.9       78.8     64.8

7Springs                  62.1       77.1     69.6

Clear start, valley fog, allowing for some cooler conditions to start. Some clouds popping up throughout the day.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar estimates from 9pm to 9pm. No radar video with no rain in the area

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

On the models….

Short term, how far south does the line that potentially has some severe storms tomorrow make it tomorrow evening. Right now it looks to be after nightfall tomorrow that the front nears and it appears the line of storms weaken as well,  but still may contain some severe cells. Stay alert on that tomorrow, and will post to facebook. Then that front stalls and will be a focal point of another round of rain this weekend. Question is, how far does the front push and where the steady rain sets up Saturday night, and Sunday. There will also be showers Saturday,  mainly Wv mts.

18z 3km nam 2m temperatures

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs, with precip amounts next 10 days

12z ECMWF lightning density. The model clearly picking up on a dying of the storms tomorrow

18z GFS precip type next 384hrs with precip next 10. (Keep in mind op runs can change significantly on precip placement several days out)

18z GFS 2m temperatures next 384 hours. Now details will fail, overall outlook should hold. What to expect. As we close September and go into October, expect widespread frost ,freezes.. Especially valley freezes and those frost pockets, looking from this far out, a range with some mins falling into the 18-24° range looks reasonable. 28-33 most locations. Again, this will ne tweaked on numbers, and timing.

This will kick start areas of slow changing leaves. It may also make for a shortened foliage season. Keep in mind, many areas that have those typical early changers, a lot of those spots, the trees have already lost some leaves prematurely due to anthracnose. You go out on western Cabin Mt across the top. Some maple areas are past peak now, and that did not contain much color, due to early leaf drop.  Heres a pick from Bittinger 2nw Valley today

Those leaves fell without much color at all. So, its some of the early changer are bare, others remaining green to just beginning to change. Wv high ground, Sept 29- Oct 6 should be good for best colors. Blackwater Canyon, Oct 4-12… Those cold temps should ignite the change. Many areas will fall in that date range as well. Later than last year with the warmth of this month vs the cold start to Sept last year.  Not much off normal, assuming these dates play out this year. Last year, the 2nd half of September warmed, and that slowed down the later changing trees to early Oct.

Last but not least. This will all involve timing of the fronts and precip available, first flakes early Oct are not ruled out yet. 3 members of the GFS ensemble package has it, 2 of the ECMWF. Here is the GFS 

GFS ensemble temp outlook next 16, frost, freeze opportunity should exist multiple mornings. 

Sept 19.                  min.        max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley       54.2       73.5       63.8

Garrett College       57.9       76.2       67.0

Can-Heights            57.2       74.1       65.7

CRN-Canaan           56.0       75.2       65.6

Cabin Mt                 58.5       74.3       66.4

Cabin Mt north     60.1       72.7       66.4

Spruce Knob         58.1        73.2      65.6

Can-Valley Floor   51.3        77.2      64.2

7Springs                 63.0        72.5      67.8

Cloudy start, some high ground fog in spots. Breaking late morning and through the afternoon for more sunshine.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

On the models….

Warmer 2 days ahead after a cool start in the a.m, cool start relatively speaking vs the mild mornings of this September.  On Friday, we do need to watch to see how a line of storm develops. Will post more tomorrow, as of now the worst does look to start in the northern Alleghenies and points NW.

18z 3km Nam 2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam 2m Dewpoints

mid to long term, plenty of rain chances, and then we look to chill down late next week going into early October. Widespread frost and freezes looking probable in that stretch. Last night the 18z GFS had flake threat around the 3rd-4th. Not on any run since. 2 members of the 12z ECMWF ensemble package out of 51 members still have a shot.

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs

18z GFS precip type next 384hrs

Sept 18.                   min.    max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley     58.1    71.0       64.5

Garrett College     62.2     75.2       68.6

Can-Heights          59.8      70.5      65.2

CRN-Canaan         60.3      69.9      65.1

Cabin Mt                59.0     66.2      62.6

Cabin Mt north    59.7     67.8      63.7

Spruce Knob         57.9     64.6     61.2

Snowshoe              59.0     65.5     62.2

Can-Valley Floor  52.7     72.9     62.6

7Springs                61.5      69.9     65.7

A deary rainy start, low clouds, fog. That gave way to breaking skies and some sun during the afternoon.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm, right at .5 since 6pm last night at Bittinger 2nw Valley

Event rain totals- Bittinger 2nw Valley 1.2, Garrett College 1.3, Grantsville 1.6, Snowshoe 2.0, Canaan State Park .96, Olson Tower 1.3, Blackwater 1.1, Northern Cabin Mt 2.9, Bald Knob 2.2, Spruce Knob 3.1, 7Springs 2.0. Overall 1-3″ event range held well.

 

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

On the models…..

Short term, some drier air into the picture.. looking at 10m winds, dew points, some coldest pockets may run in the 39-44 range Thursday morning. Warmer afternoons late this week. 72-80

18z 3km Nam 2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam 2m dewpoints

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs, with precip amounts through day 10. Models backed off on the wave along a stalled boundary this weekend. Cooler air as we go into the weekend.

18z GFS…. S, S, S, S YES, the S word is on the model. S should stand for, take with a huge grain of Salt.  BUT, its 15 days out, and while October does look to start out cold. I believe first widespread frost and freezes are late Sept or the first week of Oct. The 18z GFS does put out the seasons first flakes around Oct 3rd-4th. At this point, is it likely. NO. Is it impossible, no, its possible. Way too early to tell. How much cold air is able to push on the heels of a early season cold front, and how much moisture is available. Long shots for it to occur. . So the 18z GFS out day 10-16 is as much for fun as to take serious. Having said that, here it is

18z GFS precip type next 384hrs, precip through day 10

Now the flakes on the model…only posting this as its the first run with the cold pushing in and enough so to provide that threat on the season.

 

Long range as we close out September, open October looks to be on the below normal side of things. Off the 18z GFS ensembles and CFSv2.

 

Sept 17.                   min.        max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley      64.2      70.9    67.5

Garrett College       64.4     73.2     68.8

Can-Heights            60.9      70.6    65.8

CRN-Canaan            62.7      71.0    66.9

Cabin Mt                  58.8      65.1    61.9

Cabin Mt north       59.5     68.9     64.2

Spruce Knob           58.8     64.0     61.4

Snowshoe                60.4     63.3     61.8

Can-Valley Floor    63.0     74.8     68.9

7Springs                  62.2      68.2    65.2

Cloudy, rain, moderate to heavy in the a.m…some fog, drizzle, east flow.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm, .65 at Bittinger 2nw Valley

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

  Last years start to September vs this year…

A much warmer front half of September this year, vs last year. Last years foliage season got kicked off rapidly across the high ground with the maples. This year, outside of the early season trees affected with anthracnose, we are lagging last year, but I would not say far off par for normal. The very warm start (front 7 days) to this September has helped the overall average on the month be well above normal, while the daytime maxes the past 8 days have been much cooler, in large part under a east flow, foggy, wet conditions in which may help aid in some color change. One big thing lacking, due to the cloud cover, wet conditions, we have had a blanket to prevent nightime temps from falling off this month. Last year we had some nice big chilly highs push in, clearing us out, letting temps fall. Not the case this year…..and to be honest, I don’t forsee this chance not until the last week of the month or into week 1 October.

At Bittinger 2nw Valley days 1-15 last year to this year. 

Max anomalies last year and this year

 

Min anomalies last year and this year

 

Overall average anomaly vs norms last year and this year

 

Precip last year for the month and vs norm

 

This year month to date and percentage of normal

 

On the models

Short term, showers tonight, into tomorrow. Coverage becoming less. Overall an additional .25 to .50 possible. Isolated higher amounts.

18z 3km Nam 2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam 2m Dewpoints

18z 3km Nam Simulated Radar

Longer term, upcoming weekend. Watching a stalled boundary with that being the focal point of possibly some more heavy rains. Will it set up in Pa, along the Mason-Dixon, or in Wv.  That is a question. The 12z ECMWF was pretty hefty in the area it sets up.  GFS not as much. Expect this too wobble north or south on the models over the upcoming week.

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs with precip totals through 10 days including tonights rain

18z GFS precip type next 384hrs with amounts through day 10.

Sept 16.                    min.      max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley       63.5       69.1      66.3

Garrett College       63.2       69.4      66.3

Can-Heights            59.6       63.5      61.5

CRN-Canaan           60.8       66.7      63.7

Cabin Mt                 57.2       61.0      59.1

Cabin Mt north      57.4      61.5      59.4

Spruce Knob          57.0       60.1     58.5

Snowshoe              58.6        61.2     59.9

Can-Valley Floor   61.5       66.6      64.0

7Springs                 61.7       69.2      65.4

Cloudy, some fog early, foggy all day in WV mts, little drizzle early, wetter as you went south in WV mts. I had a few peaks of sun, but majority of the time, just cloudy, east flow.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm , picked up only trace at Bittinger 2nw Valley..

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

On the models..

Rain looks to push over the area during the overnight and by dawn tomorrow most all of the area seeing rain. Model output continues in the 1-3″ range, so no need to waver from those totals. Lingering showers through Tuesday.

18z 3km Nam 2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam Simulated Radar and amounts

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs with amounts through Florence remnants

18z GFS precip type next 384hrs with amounts through Florence remnants

Sept 15.                      min.       max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley       62.6       69.9       66.2

Garrett College       64.1       70.4       67.2

Can-Heights            61.2        65.6      63.4

CRN-Canaan           62.8        69.9      66.3

Cabin Mt                 59.0        63.3      61.1

Cabin Mt north     60.1        62.8      61.4

Spruce Knob          58.8        61.3      60.0

Snowshoe               59.7       64.2       61.9

Can-Valley Floor   63.3        70.0      66.6

7Springs                  62.7       68.6     65.7

Mainly cloudy, times of fog, drizzly, times of light rain…a few brief peaks of sun late day..

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm, once again, radar not picking up on the light precip banking into the Alleghenies. The mist, drizzle, light rain at times. Only totalling .02 at Bittinger 2nw Valley, but wet quite often today. That said, radar and radar estimates not worth much , but here they are…(radar clutter near radar sites(Pitt, Charleston, Sterling)

Florence estimates and some obs reports 25-32″..There was a gauge earlier reporting 47″, I inquired about it and was told it was a error impacted by sea spray

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

On the models

Rain threat increasing Sunday late day south, and overnight pressing north. Rainy Monday, into Tuesday. Overall holding the 1-3″ range, while leaning in the low to mid range of that. As always isolated spots may recieve more.

18z 3km Nam

2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam Simulated Radar

18z 3km Nam precip totals

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs, with amounts through Florence remnants

18z GFS precip type next 384hrs, with amounts through Florence remnants

12z UKMET precip every 6 hours with amounts through Florence remnants

Leaf comparison

Sept 14.                    min.       max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley       63.5        70.8      67.1

Garrett College       65.1        72.3      68.7

Can-Heights            62.7         69.9     66.3

CRN-Canaan           63.5         71.7     67.6

Cabin Mt                 60.1         64.9     62.5

Cabin Mt north      61.2         65.1     63.1

Spruce Knob          61.2         63.3     62.2

Snowshoe               60.3         66.9     63.6

Can-Valley Floor    64.0        71.8     67.9

7Springs                   63.0       69.8     66.4

Drizzly, foggy, east flow, isolate brief peak of sun, 99% of the day was foggy, misty, drizzly. Temp max was with brief peak of sun. The eastern ridges of the Alleghenies were socked in with pea soup thick fog. Temps held 60s.

Temp profile this afternoon. Large difference in temps and conditions from east side of the Alleghenies to the downsloping valleys on the west.

Savage Mt to Morgantown today off cams

Pic by Steffi Hone on Spruce Knob

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm, picked up .05 at Bittinger 2nw Valley… Radar and estimates misleading on this version. Lots of ground clutter near the radar sites. and the low moisture banking up the mts on the east side, noy detected. Leading to errors in radar estimates as well. Not that it rained a lot, but wet most of the day.

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

Florence

Florence estimates

on land, weakening, but moving slow and dropping lots of rain. Our rain looks to begin south to north late Sunday/ Sunday night, through Tuesday..Again, a tweak up in arrival and exit. Showers will occur over the time between now and then, especially the eastern ridges that were socked in the fog and drizzle today.  Rain looks to be in the 1-3″ totals, with isolated higher amounts. Really riding the Euro(Ecmwf) on this. The GFS just looks odd. With a brunt of the precip occuring with S/Se winds, it makes 0 sense to dry out the downsloping areas on the east side of the Alleghenies like the GFS does, the ECMWF does the opposite.

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs, precip amounts through Florence remnants

The 18z GFS precip type next 384hrs with precip amounts only through Florence remnants

12z UKMET precip every 6 hours through 144 with amounts

Short term, again, not much flucuation in temps across the mts from night time lows to day time highs.

18z 3km nam 2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam Simulated Radar

Leaves……

Nope still here. The leaf season. This is setting up to be a funky fall foliage season. Mentioned in many post in late August if you were following about a fungal disease caused by the wet weather causing some tree types(especially maples) to drop leaves premature. Some leaves shrivle, some spot up, and hang on. Well that seems to have affected a portion, how much, depends on the area. Lots of those fell ,leaving primarily green maples with some color. I was walking around observing this evening, lots are on the verge of change across my area in Garrett County. I think the shorter days, and the cool down in max temps the last week after the very warm September start, and the constant cloud cover  may be helping, but not as much if we would get some clear cold nights. They have been few in this overall wet damp pattern.. That said, this year vs last year on this date is very noticeable. Remarkably less color. Last year the maples went early, set off by a cold September opening and early frost. This year, that warm combo, with some early maple leaf loss, has left the early changers gone, and remaining mainly on the green side.

On the verge, I tend to think these will start to change fast despite the lack of cold temps in near term.

Last September start vs this year

32 between Davis and Canaan Heights on Sept 14 2014, vs today

Fungi amongi in all this wet weather

Not fungi, but I was amongI

Sept 13.                     min.      max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley       65.0      74.6      69.8

Garrett College       65.9      76.7      71.3

Can-Heights            63.7       74.4     69.1

CRN-Canaan           63.3       76.5      69.9

Cabin Mt.                60.8       71.2      66.0

Cabin Mt north      61.5       71.2     66.3

Spruce Knob station down

Snowshoe               60.3        70.2     65.2

Can-Valley Floor    64.9       76.6      70.7

7Springs                  64.5       73.6      69.1

Foggy, drizzle to start, giving way to some sun and clouds mixed, with some light rain by nightfall. There was a period of very light run under partly cloudy skies.  Se flow today, thanks to high north, and Florence south

Temp profile this afternoon, downsloping side on the western side heating up today with the Se flow

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm , trace Bittinger 2nw Valley

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

Florence

Florence remnants look to impact our area Sunday nighy/Monday am timeframe through early Wednesday possibly. Timing will yet need tweaked. Rainfall amounts are looking to be in the 1-3″ range, with up to 4″ in areas.

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs(totals through Florence remnants, as is the GFS)

18z GFS precip type next 384hrs

12z UKMET 6 hourly precip

Spaghetti Charts

And that was Florence, now before and after. A continuous moist east flow, with the shower risk over the next few days. Little temperature flucuation from nighttime lows, and daytime highs. With the east flow, west side of the mountains remaining warmer, as seen here on the 3km nam

18z 3km Nam 2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam Simulated Radar

Further out, weeklies finally showing a breakdown of the ridge and brings more fall like air week 3-4. Models originally had this occuring mid month.

next 46 days, weeklies do see our first flakes, in late week 2-week 3 Oct peiod. Take that with a grain of salt, and 3 tablespoons more.

Tomorrow night, I plan to show some comparisons of current foliage vs last year, with month to date temps. Much colder Sept last year, with leaves much further along. Also, this year is influenced by anthracnose in areas, which will hinder colors in areas.

Sept 12.                      min.      max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley        60.1       67.5       63.8

Garrett College        60.5       70.3      65.4

Can-Heights             60.0       73.3      66.7

CRN-Canaan            60.0        74.3     67.1

Cabin Mt                  59.2        70.3    64.7

Cabin Mt north       57.7       71.4    64.5

Spruce Knob            58.8       67.5    63.1

Snowshoe                 62.1       70.3    66.2

Can-Valley Floor      60.1      76.5    68.3

7Springs                    58.6      65.1    61.8

Fog, few light showers, drizzle, se flow. North central Garrett held low clouds, fog the entire day, some breaks late elsewhere it appeared

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm , .05 at Bittinger 2nw Valley

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

FLORENCE

The track from last night holds fairly well tonight, with the exception of another slight south trend. The broad moist east flow will provide the opportunity for showers over the next few days, mainly Friday and Saturday. Our significant rain potential comes early to mid next week. Tweaks in timing and amounts remain. As of now it looks like a 1-3″ rain event with areas up to 4″. Now, the 12z Euro turned north a tad earlier, tad juicier and puts out 2-4″ amounts. Should that occur, flooding of more significance would occur. Right now going with 1-3″ which would cause some flooding with waterways already high.

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs

18z GFS precip type next 384hrs

12z UKmet

NHC 8PM UPDATE

Spaghetti Charts

Breakdown of the precip by the NWS, really like their thoughts on this

Sept 11.                    min.       max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley       57.0        64.5       60.7

Garrett College      56.8        65.4       61.1

Can-Heights            56.3       67.1       61.7

CRN-Canaan           56.5      69.6       63.1

Cabin Mt                 56.5      65.5       61.0

Cabin Mt north     55.6       62.8      59.2

Spruce Knob          57.9      63.5      60.7

Snowshoe               59.2      67.1     63.2

Can-Valley Floor   58.5      73.0*    65.7

7Springs                 54.2      60.0      57.1

Cloudy, some fog, drizzle and showers at times, but no precip quite often.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm. Picked up .15 at Bittinger 2nw Valley

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

FLORENCE UPDATE

This afternoon, models came much more into agreeance. Whether this holds, remains to be seen obviously. The ridge is strong, and it appears this will shift the storm more west into the Carolinas, inland and up west of the mts. Well, what does that mean. It means not much rain in our area until early next week. For the Carolinas, it means they take a big wallop of the catastrophic level late Thursday night, through Saturday. This latest track(my gut thinks this holds) spares the words like, catastrophic, serious, in our area. Now, we still look to get rains as the remnants lift north. This looks like the type that can cause already high waterways to come out of their banks in spots, but not in a major way and not in anyway more than we have seen already. Areas north that saw the flooding this past weekend, I don’t currently see a repeat of that.  Rainfall amounts are looking to be 1-3″, isolated higher, exception vs rule, if, and I stress IF things remain on this course. A slower movement, a quicker lift north could again alter that and increase these totals.

Here is a look at Florence today

Florence stats and NHC projection cone(notice the more southward turn in their cone)

The 12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs and amounts. Notice these amounts are through mid next week, because the remants pass Mon-Wed timeframe(precip totals also include some precip prior to the remnants, same as the GFS)

Lets look at the 12z ECMWF ensemble members on Low locations, thats a lot of agreement.

The 18z GFS, notice the similarity now to the 12z ECMWF, and amounts off the model.

The 12z UKmet

Spaghetti Charts, that south trend, and the west path, theme of today and given the ridge north, seems legit.

A closer look in as the 18z 3km nam comes into range of landfall. 10m winds(not gust, gust will be higher at landfall)