Allegheny Mountains Weather

 

Oct 5.                     min.       max.       avg

Bitt 2nw valley    56.2        68.4        62.8

Garrett College    58.7        69.9       64.3

Can-Heights         59.2        69.9       64.6

CRN-Canaan         60.6        72.0      66.3

Cabin Mt               58.3        69.6      63.9

Cabin Mt north    59.2       69.6      64.4

Spruce Knob         x

Snowshoe             58.8        68.4      63.6

Can-Valley Floor  51.3       73.2      62.2

7Springs                55.0        65.6     60.3

Cloudy, some fog in the morning. Then mainly cloudy afternoon. Some areas saw more breaks of sun than others. Limited at Bittinger 2nw area…

Temp profile this afternoon

 

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm.. Picked up .7 at Bittinger 2nw Valley with the rain last evening after

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

 

I made a Facebook post this morning about the MJO driving the pattern. The phase 8 and 1 correlations are as strong as it gets. We’ve been in a fairly high amplitude phase 8, a phase 8 for late Sept into early Oct should look like this

Our past 10 days looks like this

I don’t know about you, but that looks to me about as close as it gets. We are now into phase 1. A phase 1 looks like

Gfs next week looks like this

MJO is a main driver of the current pattern. Where do we go from here? Some modeling advances the MJO into phase 2. That would allow the eastern U.S to turn cold. Some have it going into the null phase, less impactful and that would allow some cold air to sweep east in 7-10 days. A few hold phase 1. This would hold the current pattern longer into the month.  This is a big factor of what occurs as we go into mid month.