Oct 7.                        min.      max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley       55.7       78.4      67.0

Garrett College       61.1       81.4     71.2

Can-Heights            61.7       76.5     69.1

CRN-Canaan           60.2       78.2     69.2

Cabin Mt                 61.5       76.8     69.1

Cabin Mt north      62.4       77.4    69.9

Spruce Knob          x

Snowshoe              62.8        73.0      67.8

Can-Valley Floor   51.3       79.5      65.4

7Springs                 65.9       76.5      71.2

Lots of sun, some clouds. Evening storms east of the Allegheny Front

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

On the models….

Mentioned the other day, the MJO is controlling this pattern and if we can break out of phase 1 the cold will come. Most modeling now does just that. Takes the MJO into phase 2 before going into the null zone. Phase 2 is cold in the east. This is the ECMWF mjo forecast, the GFS is almost identical. 

18z GFS 2m temperatures

18z GFS precip type next 240hrs. (notice some blue on there/aka snow) Also watch the tropical remnants prior to the cold push. Some heavy rains may be associated with that. Right now it does not look major or extreme, but potentially some minor flooding.

Comparisons

Blackwater Canyon. This is probably the greatest contrast vs last year. As the high spots have had some color and leaf loss. Due to a different reason than last year, but the overall appearance is similar. Not the case in the canyon and a big thanks to Charles Cropp for this pic today. 2018 vs 2017. I took last years pic on the 8th.

Few other pics today in Garrett County near Bittinger. Lots of bare maples. I keep reading people saying “trees all still have their leaves, mostly green yet” and I’m baffled. Maples in this area, lots are bare or dull. Oak area, yes, mostly green… Across the Sods, up higg, almost all bare. Spruce Knob and west, mostly bare and tropical remnants late week will knock down lots of remaining leaves in that region. Canaans birches, Blackwater Canyon birches, week 2-3 looks prime for those, are some good hopes for bright colors. Here are a few today and one more from Charles Cropp at Little Canaan(labeled)