Oct 21.                   min.         max.       avg

Bitt 2nw valley     28.5        36.0mn  32.2

Garrett College     28.9       36.3       32.6

Can-Heights          25.4       31.5       28.5

CRN-Canaan

Cabin Mt.              22.5      28.2        25.3

Cabin Mt north    23.9     29.7        26.8

Spruce Knob        21.4      26.8       24.1

Snowshoe             21.6      28.6       24.8

Can-Valley Floor 28.2       33.2      30.7

7Springs               27.0       33.3       30.1

Overnight snow, a few pockets of light snow scattered about today. High ground fog. Otherwise it was just a mainly cloudy day. Snow cover remained all day.

Temp profile this afternoon(Wv high ground above 4000′ holding lower to mid 20s all day. Northern Cabin had wind gust over 50mph later yesterday.

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm, I didn’t get the graphic in, in time yesterday, so going with 48 hour totals vs the typical 24.. At Bittinger 2nw Valley coming in a .62

Snowfall

1.0″ at Bittinger 2nw Valley

 

Davis 3SE/Canaan Heights 2.3″

Snowshoe 3.0″

On Bald Knob,  I’d estimate right around 3″.

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Pics today

 

 

Pics by Dave Perrine at Spruce Knob

 

Pics by Gerri Ann Atkinson at Gaudineer Knob

 

Pics by Walter Scriptunas II at the Cass Scenic Railroad to Bald Knob in Pocahontas County

Check out his photography work on his photography page on Facebook

Pics by Jonathan Gladysz at Red Spruce Knob

 

Pic by Rosanna Springston at the Highland Scenic Highway

Pics by David Faunce at Pendleton Lake at Blackwater Falls State Park

Videos today

On the models

A semi tranquil, chilly week ahead. Then eyes turn to a system coming up from the south. Track, intensity, timing will have a impact on whether or not this sets up as a early season wet heavy snowfall for the Alleghenies. As of now, this is the ticket to watch.

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs

12z ECMWF 2m Temperatures

Oct 20                     min.      max.    avg

Bitt 2nw valley    35.9       50.2      43.0

Garrett College     36.2       50.9     43.5

Can-Heights           31.6       48.3     40.0

CRN-Canaan

Cabin Mt.               28.4         45.3      36.8

Cabin Mt north    29.8        46.6        38.2

Spruce Knob         27.3       43.9       35.6

Snowshoe              28.6       46.8       37.7

Can-Valley Floor   33.3       50.5      41.9

7Springs                 33.4       46.3      39.8

Cloudy, light rain to start, some afternoon breaks and showers returning late day. Windy

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm

 

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

On the models….

Will post the latest Ecmwf run….. Thoughts on the event overnight into tomorrow have not really shifted or been tweaked at all. Please refer back to that posting for details.

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs

12z ECMWF 2m Temperatures next 240hrs(10 days) 10/20/18

12z ECMWF snowfall for this event

Oct 19.                    min.        max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley     27.1        61.1        44.1

Garrett College     28.9        62.6        45.7

Can-Heights          27.9        61.8        44.8

CRN-Canaan         25.8         64.3       45.0

Cabin Mt               36            62.1       49.0

Cabin Mt north    33.1        62.8       47.9

Spruce Knob        35.6        61.0        48.3

Snowshoe             39.7        57.6        48.7

Can-Valley Floor 17.4        65.3        41.3

7Springs               35.4       56.5        46.0

Clear, start. Calm valleys, light southerly winds up high. Gave 20°+ temp swings from cold high valleys to high ground. Few clouds coming in during the afternoon and evening.

Temp profile this afternoon

No rain, nothing on radar past 24, straight to todays satellite

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

 

Pics today

 

 

On the models….

Showers pushing in late tomorrow, quickly changing to snow overnight. Some heavy burst possible. Strong NW winds. Falling temps. I would expect at the least, the exposed, windy areas will have some snow covered roads.  Snowshowers in to Sunday a.m.

Keep in mind, nature of bands may leave areas in forecast zones less or more. Impossible to predict. While a area forecast of 1-2″ one area may end up with 2 or 3″ and pockets less than 1″ in areas that miss out on the precip bands. More of a guide than a rule with the event.

Latest thoughts and tweaks

1500- 2000′ coating to 1″

Sunday a.m temps 29-34°, windchills 15-20° Sunday afternoon 37-43° windchills 26-34°

2000-3000′ on the upslope areas of the Alleghenies. Coatings to 2″ . Tweaked upward with it looking to be a touch colder tomorrow night, and there may be a few narrow bands of heavy pockets of snow.

Sunday a.m temps- 25-32° windchills 10-15° Sunday afternoon temps- 32-37, windchills 21-26°

3000-4000′ 2-4″ of windblown snow. Gust 35-50mph.

Sunday a.m temps 18-24°, windchills 0-10, Sunday afternoon temps 28-33° windchills 15-20°

4000’+ 3-5″ of windblown snow. Travel will likely feature snow covered roads Sunday a.m. Sunday a.m temps 15-20°, windchills -5 to +5. Sunday afternoon temps 25-30, windchills 12-17

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs

12z ECMWF 2m Temperatures next 10

12z ECMWF snowfall 

18z 3km Nam 2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam windchills

Oct 18.                      min.      max.       avg

Bitt 2nw valley       29.4       43.3        36.3

Garrett College       29.8       47.2        38.5

Can-Heights.          27.7        43.4        35.6

CRN-Canaan          29.5        45.8       37.7

Cabin Mt                24.8        42.3      33.5

Cabin Mt north     25.7        43.2     34.4

Spruce Knob          24.6       42.3     33.4

Snowshoe               25.5       45.7     35.5

Can-Valley Floor   22.6       47.1     34.8

7Springs                 29.0       41.3      35.2

Early clouds, some fog skirting the high Wv ground with a touch of rime early. Then a mostly sunny day beyond mid morning

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Nothing on radar, so nothing to post for precip

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Some pics today

 

Pic from social media at Snowshoe early morning

Speaking of early morning cams. I have been fooled many many many times over the years by predawn and nightime artificial lightning on these cams illuminating grass, bare grass. Sometimes its wet grass. It illuminates it, in a way that looks like snow. I’ve seen it occur with temps in the teens and no predawn meltoff. The snow that appeared on the ground at the base of Snowshoe, wasn’t snow. It was wet grass illuminated. Look at this morning at Silver Creek. This was predawn, to at first light when the cam does not illuminate the image. Looks like snowcover, none there. You will observe this often, and be fooled often. Even the NWS has been.

 

On the models…

Fast forwarding to Saturday to showers pushing in, and changing to snow overnight. A quick brief hit. Thoughts have not changed really since last night.  2000-3000′ coating to 1″, 3000-4000 1-3″ my tweak would be 4000’+ 2-4″.  Windchills into the single digits above 3800′ Sunday a.m. 12-20° 2000-3800′. Air temps 20-25° to start Sunday above 3200′, 25-32 2000-3200′. Max temps 28-34 above 3500′, 33-39 2500-3500, 38-43 2000-2500. Sunday night, if skies clear fast as they look they will and winds go calm, thats iffy, but if they do, low temps falling 6-12 in the coldest high valley pockets. 15-25 elsewhere.

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs

12z ECMWF 2m temperatures

12z ECMWF windchills

12z ECMWF snowfall

Oct 17.                   min.        max.        avg

Bitt 2nw valley     36.7         51.5       44.1

Garrett College     37.8         51.9      44.8

Can-Heights          32.8         47.1       39.9

CRN-Canaan         34.7         48.6       41.7

Cabin Mt               30.6         43.5       37.0

Cabin Mt north    31.5        44.8       38.1

Spruce Knob         29.5       42.8       36.1

Snowshoe              32.2       44.8       38.5

Can-Valley Floor   36.0       49.8      42.9

7Springs                 34.9       48.0      41.5

Mix of clouds and sun and windy would sum up today.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

No precip 9pm to 9pm,so take a look at the wind gust, over 50mph gust on northern Cabin, Mt Sods. The RTMA looks pretty good over the high ground.

 

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

On the models…

The fun part. Cold night tonight, some places down to freezing or below for the first time. High ground has been there done that on numerous occasions. Chilly tomorrow, windchills 10-15 to start Wv high ground, 20-25 elsewhere, moderation of temps Friday, Saturday…then…

Some showers look to arrive Saturday, overnight those showers look to change to snowshowers into Sunday morning. Changeover first in the high Wv ground, then working down to around 2000’… Very early low confidence call. 2000-3000 coating to 1″, 3000-3500, 1-2″ 3500’+ 1-3″ . Above 3500′, temps will be well into the 20s, strong winds. That will quickly chill the uninsulated duff layer(leaves, grass, spruce needles, moss, etc) and snow will stick. The warm ground becomes more of a factor after 1-2″ accumulates, then that duff layer is insulated with snow and the ground warmth melts from undeneath. Below 3000- 3500, temps become more marginal,  although the same principles, just a slower process to stick.  Although a heavy burst can overcome that slow process.  Monday morning, high pressures follows in the wake of the brief hit,  that will lead to clear skies, and probably calm winds. Coldest high valleys Monday a.m could push 10-15° if skies clear, winds go calm. (Perfect setup could yield colder in those coldest pockets) Something to watch for. Most locations in the 20s.

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs

12z ECMWF 2m Temperatures

Heres the Monday a.m min off the 12z ECMWF. Not a strongsuit of the model. It does however see a little snowcover Sunday, into the night aiding the valley cooling. No snow, the model won’t show that low. Thats about the only time the ECMWF will model lower temps than the GFS is with snowcover. Also keep in mind, it’s a 9km grid model, it will not pick out valleys well. 

12z ECMWF windchills

12z ECMWF snowfall. Its the most robust of the models. The GFS though has slightly crept up, as well as the Canadian. The 12z ECMWF is backed by quite a few ensemble members. So the call is presently based off a blend of the models. 2 things also to hinder modeled totals. The very onset will take time to stick, and once it does stick, accumulate a little, insulates the duff layer. Warm ground will play a role,,especially in non windy areas. In windy areas, snow sticking to roads would be possible. I stress, 4 days out, low confidence in saying that. Just something to be mindful of come Saturday night, Sunday a.m. Photographers may have a morning to get some snow on some remaining foliage. Birches, beech still in the changing stage, maples done pretty well, oaks green with brown blotches. Oak is not abundant across the highest Wv areas. In areas with oak, accumulations look light enough no issues would occur.

12z ECMWF snowfall

Oct 16                    min.      max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley     35.3     48.4      41.8

Garrett College     36.5      48.9      42.7

Can-Heights          35.9      46.1      41.0

CRN-Canaan         37.8      47.3      42.5

Cabin Mt               33.6       43.5     38.5

Cabin Mt north   34.0       45.9     39.9

Spruce Knob       34.5       45.5     40.0

Snowshoe            37.6       46.9    42.2

Can-Valley Floor 39.0       48.4    43.7

7Springs               32.4       44.9    38.7

More clouds vs sun today. A 70-30 leaning to more times with overcast vs sunshine. Cloudier south.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm . Picked up .1 at Bittinger 2nw Valley last night after 6pm

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Oct 15.                     min.        max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley        44.1       62.0      53.0

Garrett College        44.7       61.8      53.2

Can-Heights             44.0       58.3     51.2

CRN-Canaan            42.4       59.2     50.8

Cabin Mt                 42.4       54.9      48.6

Cabin Mt north      42.3       57.2      49.7

Spruce Knob          41.5       54.1      47.8

Snowshoe               45.0       55.9      50.5

Can-Valley Floor    46.2      61.0      53.6

7Springs                  40.4       57.9     49.2

Cloudy, showers breaking out mid morning, on and off all day. Turning windy. The peaks of blue you see off the Rt 40 cam, never saw that back towards Bittinger, Mchenry.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm . Picked up .25 through 6pm at Bittinger 2nw Valley

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Pics

 

On the models…..

Cold air returns overnight after the hiatus today. Dropping temps, lowering dewpoints, and things drying out. Finally. Areas at or below freezing in the morning. The chill holds through the week, with Thursday a.m being the coldest period. If things go calm pre daybreak, coldest valleys see teens. If winds hold up just a little, as it looks like now they may,  high ground will see the coldest temps with mins 21-25.  Most all areas below freezing Thursday a.m. If you’ve not seen a frost, freeze yet. Thursday a.m should change that. Watching the weekend with some rain to snow. Possibly some light accumulations Sunday. May be a good period to get some some snow on foliage pics in the Blackwater Canyon if this pans out, stay tuned. If it occurs, its likely not exclusively only above 4000′. Long range, cold shots and precip opportunities. Can they match up for a early season thump? The potential is most definetly alive.

18z 3km Nam 2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam 2m Dewpoints

18z 3km Nam Windchills

18z GFS precip type next next 384hrs

18z GFS 2m temperatures next 10

 

Little peak at some of the 12z ECMWF ensemble members on snowfall next 15 days. Potential is there. 

Oct 14.                       min.       max.       avg

Bitt 2nw valley        36.0        52.7       44.3

Garrett College        36.9        53.2       45.0

Can-Heights             30.6        50.7       40.7

CRN-Canaan            31.0        50.9       41.0

Cabin Mt                  35.1        48.9       42.0

Cabin Mt north       31.5       48.7       40.1

Spruce Knob           34.3       46.6       40.4

Snowshoe               36.9       48.7       42.8

Can-Valley Floor    29.3       52.7      41.0

7Springs               *   34.4      49.8      42.1

7Springs at 2540′  * 38.1       54.6      46.3

(The 7Springs 2900′ appears to be calibrated low for readings. The difference in 400′ seems to great for max temps often)

Cloudy start, a period of morning rain, cloudy afternoon with some mist, fog around 6pm, transitioning to a light rain 9pm.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm. Rainfall of .15 at Bittinger 2nw Valley today.

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Pics….

Most of these around the Cunningham Swamp. Lots of maple in this area, some cherry…few oaks. Hillsides 80-90% bare.

 

On the models…..

Showers tonight, Monday, before clearing off overnight Monday. That should setup Tuesday a.m as the most widespread morning with temps below freezing across the valleys. A chilly midweek. I think Thursday a.m should see the coldest pockets run temps into the 15-20 range to start the day.  Most widespread killing frost/ freeze… Next snow potential to whiten things, currently looks like next Sunday, low confidence in that 7 days out.

Oct 13.                     min.      max.       avg

Bitt 2nw valley       35.9      41.7mn   38.8

Garrett College       37.9      41.0        39.5

Can-Heights            30.6      39.1       34.8

CRN-Canaan           29.4       40.0      34.7

Cabin Mt                 29.7       36.1      32.9

Cabin Mt north     30.2        37.4      33.8

Spruce Knob        * afternoon max 34

Snowshoe              30.9        38.3      34.6

Can-Valley Floor   28.9       41.0      34.9

7Springs                  32.2      39.4       35.8

Cloudy, showers early, few areas with wet flakes mixed in, with straight snow showers across the Wv high ground with whitenings above 4000′. Some areas saw a peak or 2 of sun.

Temp profile this afternoon. Bald Knob peak temps occured at the midnight periods. Midnight of the 12th into the 13th, then the afternoon hovered near freezing and a bit of a return flow pushed the midnight temp going into the 14th back up. The high ground mins, valley mins were reached at different times. The pm hours after dark, the skies broke some with calm winds allowing the valleys to briefly fall. The high ground reached their mins in the a.m after daybreak on NW winds. At Bittinger 2nw valley, I had no breaks in sky cover.

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm . Picked up .2 at Bittinger 2nw Valley

Snow depths

Satellite this afternoon

Flow(late day)

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

Snow and Rainbows

Pics by Jeremy Cutlip on the Highland Scenic Highway

Pics from Spruce Knob by David Carroll and his Virginia Tech students. They make so much of this data collecting possible. Without them, a lot of this would not be doable. A huge thanks for all they do. They bring the outdoor harsh conditions available to view in the comfort of your living room.

Webcam shots at Snowshoe. A widely shared photo predawn today, is one that appears to be snowcover and in reality its wet grass illuminated by lighting, camera lighting distorts it. Appears as snow. Ive been fooled 500 times by it.

Videos heading up Baldy and atop Baldy

The holdout foliage hope. Blackwater Canyon still on par to provide nice color. Birch in the process of going yellow. Over the next week it should peak out

Oct 12.                   min.     max.       avg

Bitt 2nw valley    40.1      47.7       43.9

Garrett College   40.1       47.8      43.9

Can-Heights        34.1      45.0       39.5

CRN-Canaan       35.2      47.0      34.7

Cabin Mt              31.3      44.6     37.9

Cabin Mt north  32.0       44.1    38.0

Spruce Knob.         x

Snowshoe             32.0       45.7     38.8

Can-Valley Floor  36.5       48.0     42.2

7Springs                37.4       45.3     41.3

Cloudy morning, high elevation Wv fog with temps below freezing,,windchills teens there.  This also lead to reported first flakes with the available moisture freezing and falling around 4000′. Likely a touch of rime above 4100′.. Skies broke for a sunnier afternoon.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm

Snow depths

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Flakes…

Vernon Patterson reported flakes at sunrise at Bear Rocks. Likely similar across Cabin Mt, Plains, and through the highest parts of the Alleghenies. Enough moisture in the air, temps below freezing, strong winds, enough to freeze the moisture and let it fall

On the models..

Sticking short term with 3km Nam..

Precip pushing in overnight. Rain initially, switching to snow above 2600′. Temps mild enough(relatively speaking) that coatings to 1/2″ should be limited to 3700’+.  Temps 29-33° above 3700′, 33-38° 2500-3700′, 36-42° 2000-2500′. Windchills upper teens, low 20ss above 4000′ 25-35 elsewhere. Not a lot of temp rise Saturday. 35-40 above 3700′ 40-45 2500-3700, 43-49 1500-2500′. One more cold night Saturday night before moderation Sunday-Tuesday before the next cold surge.

18z 3km Nam 2m temperatures

18z 3km Nam 850 temps (5000′ temps)

18z 3km Nam WindChills

18z 3km Nam Simulated Radar

North America Snow Extent

Highest in 14 years of this data set that has monitored it. This on the heels of a very cold September across Canada. I believe I read(need to DoubleClick)Canada as a whole had its coldest September in 65 years. The snowpack has built on our side of the pole and may play a role as we go into our snow season.