Nov 20(Tues)            min.     max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley         27.2       39.7     33.3

Garrett College         27.6      41.2     34.4

Can-Heights              24.2      38.8     31.5

CRN-Canaan             26.1      40.0     33.1

Cabin Mt                   21.7      36.5     29.1

Cabin Mt north        22.1      37.2    29.6

Spruce Knob            20.8      36.0     28.4

Snowshoe                21.7      37.0     29.3

Can-Valley Floor    27.5     41.2     34.3

7Springs                  23.2     35.4     29.3

Cloudy, light rain overnight changed to some light scattered snow. Some this morning. some late. Some light freezing drizzle in the evening as well. Some high ground fog.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates. .1 liquid at Bittinger 2nw Valley. Radar doing poor for light snow . Really may discontinue showing it with snow events, especially upslope as it performs so poorly with the radar overshooting the precip.

Snowfall- Picked up .2 at Bittinger 2nw Valley. 8.2″ on the season

Canaan Heights picked up .7, 7.9″ on the season

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Pics today

 

On the models….

Colder air pressing in. Snow making weather is here. Squall line on artic boundary tomorrow may survive to the Mason Dixon line area or just south. That looks like it would occur in the evening and could quickly whiten roads if it occurs. Will update Facebook as models update tomorrow and radar. Temps into the teens from Tucker north tomorrow night, holding low to mid 20s Thanksgiving. 5-10 milder south of Tucker. Dry over Thanksgiving. Temps may make a run for 0 Thanksgiving night in the coldest high valley areas Tucker and north. Traditional cold east flow areas hold 25-30 Friday, setting up some mix Saturday a.m.

18Z HRRR simulated radar showing the potential squall like later tomorrow

Nov 19(Mon)              min.     max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley          28.4      50.2      39.3

Garrett College         40.5       49.9      45.2

Can-Heights              37.1       48.2      42.7

CRN-Canaan            37.7       48.7      43.2

Cabin Mt                   36.1      44.1      40.1

Cabin Mt north       36.9       45.9     39.9

Spruce Knob           33.6        43.3    38.4

Snowshoe                35.6       45.1    40.3

Can-Valley Floor    34.2       49.8     42.0

7Springs                   34.6      44.8     39.7

Cloudy start, to breaking skies, with sun into the afternoon, before clouds rolled back in and showers after dark.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Pics today

 

Sandhill Cranes

On the models..

Showers turning to snowshowers overnight into tomorrow. Coatings to 1 inch the rule. Isolated spots up to 2″. Falling temps tomorrow. Tomorrow afternoon through Friday looks like great snow making weather for resorts. Will Wisp try? Stay tuned. The cold high looks to rule for Thanksgiving. Outside shot, if we are calm Thanksgiving night, northern Alleghenies high valleys may make a run at 0.. Thanksgiving morning 10-15, windchills below 0. Southern Alleghenies slightly less harsh.

The cold high…does it holds or back away by the time precip arrives early Saturday a.m. The ECMWF holds it cold enough for some areas of freezing rain Saturday. Friday and Saturday may present a 20° swing from Savage Mt to Morgantown.

12z ECMWF 2m Temperatures

 

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs

 

California wildfire smoke

Nov 18(Sun)            min.      max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley      20.3       43.9       32.1

Garrett College.     24.2       48.9      36.6

Can-Heights           27.7       45.2      36.5

CRN-Canaan          23.9       47.1      35.5

Cabin Mt                31.6       42.1      36.8

Cabin Mt north     28.6       43.9     36.2

Spruce Knob         29.5       37.4     33.5

Snowshoe              32.2      41.7     37.0

Can-Valley Floor   13.6      48.4    31.0

7Springs                 27.4      45.3     36.3

Partly cloudy start, hazy look. Partly sunny day.  Colder valleys, warmer hilltops.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

No precip past 24hours. You may notice some tipping bucket stations recording precip today. All from melting frozen precip.

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

 

Pics today- to note. It was very evident of the higher snowfall amounts along the eastern areas from Thursdays storm. Savage Mt at the Great Allegheny Passage still have around 7-10″ depths. As well cooler there today as models suggested. A station near the trail maxed out at 38 today.

 

 

Mt. Davis

Inside the tunnel

On the models….

Some showers pressing in tomorrow, into tomorrow night. Changing to snowshowers overnight. Coatings to 2″ maxes across the mts. Temps turning colder through Tuesday, allowing for more snow making opportunities. Still some variance in the models on how much cold pushes in for Thanksgiving, but as of now it looks like at least the northern 3rd of the Alleghenies will hold 20s and if things remain calm lomg enough overnight, a run at 0 is possible. Will the cold push to Snowshoe for Thanksgiving? That’s uncertain. Southern Alleghenies may run 30s(Which isn’t warm. Then the traditional east side that holds cold, looks to hold cold Friday into at least part of Saturday. Enough so, some freezing rain may occur. That needs watched and many tweaks on that during the week.

12z ECMWF 2m Temperatures

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs

Nov 17(Sat)              min.    max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley        19.7     32.5      26.1

Garrett College        23.2     31.8     27.5

Can-Heights             25.4     33.3     29.3

Cabin Mt.                  24.1     34.6    29.4

Cabin Mt north       23.5     33.1    28.3

Spruce Knob           23.4     32.4    27.9

Snowshoe               24.8      33.4     29.1

Can-Valley Floor   18.0      36.3     27.1

7Springs                 26.7      29.6     28.2

Windy, fog, mist temps in upper 20s last night left a glaze of ice. This continued to around daybreak. Today, skies remained cloudy the entire day Garrett County north, through midday Canaan, south of there. blue bird skies.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm.. Radar not picking up on the light low level moisture

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Pics today

 

Off the Canaan Cam

Snowshoe

Beautiful photos by Zan Tewksbury today on Cabin Mt after the skies cleared

 

On the models….

Cold night ahead, followed by a milder next 2 days. Temps mid 30s to low to mid 40s holding into Tuesday morning before backsliding. This will be accompanied by some showers, changing to snow showers Tuesday. Minor if any accumulation. Then the question of, how far does the high push from the north, how long does the cold hold. As of now its looking like a chilly Wednesday and a cold Thanksgiving. If the high is stronger as the ECMWF suggest, highs 18-25, lows single digits. If it’s more progressive as the GFS suggest, highs 30s. The Canadian is in the cold camp. The ECMWF also holds just enough of a influence of the cold high for some possible ice next weekend. That’s a long ways off and highly subject to change.

12z ECMWF 2m Temperatures

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs

Nov 16(Fri)                min.    max.   avg

Bitt 2nw valley        24.3      30.4    27.3

Garrett College        23.7      30.2    27.0

Can-Heights             20.4      28.1    24.2

CRN-Canaan           21.1      29.8     25.5

Cabin Mt.                 17.8     26.4     22.1

Cabin Mt north      18.9      27.0     22.9

Spruce Knob           17.2     27.1     22.2

Snowshoe                16.7     27.3     22.0

Can-Valley Floor     21.9     31.1    26.5

7Springs                    23.3    27.1    25.2

Cloudy, fine light snow through the morning. A few brief peaks of sun, with a few scattered fine flakes in the afternoon. Mainly just mostly cloudy. After dark, some very light freezing mist, some high ground fog. Windy throughout the day

Temp profile this afternoon..

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm… Radar not picking up the light precip today.

Snowfall. I picked up 2.0″ overnight through 7am at Bittinger 2nw Valley, and a additional .3″ of fine snow today.  2.3″ total additional from 6pm last night. A storm total of 6.7″. A 6pm snow depth 6.5″  A dense snow with a good portion of it sleet. 8.0″ on the season

 

Canaan Heights additional .5″ overnight, 3.4″ total 7.2″ on the season

Satellite. Technical difficulty with the Satellite Loop, a few still images.

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow…

Pics today.

 

Some Xcountry skiing happening at Whitegrass

Pics by Jeremy Cutlip In Bath County Va

 

Nov 15(Thurs)           min.     max.    avg

Bitt 2nw valley        23.9       28.4     26.1

Garrett College        23.9      27.6     25.8

Can-Heights             21.9      28.7     25.3

CRN-Canaan           24.3       30.8     27.6

Cabin Mt.                 18.9      25.9     22.4

Cabin Mt north       18.3     25.7     22.0

Spruce Knob            18.3    25.3     21.8

Snowshoe                 19.4     30.6    25.0

Can-Valley Floor      24.8     30.6    27.7

7Springs                    21.4     27.0     24.2

A wide variety of precip today location to location. Brunt of the heaviest snow east of the Allegheny Front. I had a glaze to start to sleet, long duration of moderate sleet,  to snow, snow/sleet afternoon. Heavy at times…

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm.. Brint of this in mts and east was frozen

Snowfall,  Heaviest east, Bedford, Cumberland, Frostburg, Keyser coming in around 7-9″ , Report of 6.5 at Finzel,

Canaan Heights at 2.9″;

Bittinger 2nw Valley picked up 4.4″ through 6pm boardsweep.  5.7 on the season.

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow…..

Pics today

 

 

Nov 14(Wed)           min.       max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley        21.8      31.4      26.6

Garrett College        21.6      31.9      26.8

Can-Heights             19.8       26.6    23.2

CRN-Canaan             20.6      29.2    24.9

Cabin Mt                   17.1      25.0    21.0

Cabin Mt north       17.8      24.3    21.0

Spruce Knob           15.8       26.4    21.1

Snowshoe                16.3       30.9    23.6

Can-Valley Floor     22.1      31.3    26.7

7Springs                   18.3      24.7    21.5

Partly cloudy start after some light freezing fog, light coating of snow in some wv high ground overnight, patchy freezing drizzle in pockets as well. High thin overcast begin moving on this afternoon, with a sundog around the sun. To note, light icing,(from 2 days ago and last night)  with a little rime from last night remained on trees in Garrett above 2750 all day. Wv high ground timed in today.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar estimates…radar nor estimates picking up on the light precip estimates 9pm-9pm(Radar not picking up on the light Mt precip last night)

 

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Pics on the day

 

 

Pics by Vernon Patterson at Bald Knob and Canaan ski area

 

Pics posted on Canaan Valley National Wildlife Refuge page by Dawn Washington

 

Pics by David Faunce at Blackwater Falls State Park sled area making snow

 

Snowshoe this morning

Canaan Valley Ski Area this morning

Storm outlook

Posted this to Facebook:

Not a big fan of the hrrr, but I think it sets a great example of boundary setup for this event. This is precip type at 8am tomorrow. I think ultimately, it can be used for primary precip type setup for duration of the event.
If you live in Garrett County, often in these setups, there is a finger of cold near Sand Flat Rd, and a difference from there to Oakland. Models amazingly often pick this up. Usually the 3km nam does. It’s here on the hrrr..
Primary precip type
Blue- mainly a snow/sleet event. West side of the blue 3-6″ totals through Friday a.m. May mix with brief freezing rain when precip is light. Central and eastern side(Allegheny front, Savage Mt and east) 5-10″ with periods of sleet, and possibly freezing rain. More mix will lower overall totals
Orange- Brief snow to mainly a sleet, freezing rain event ending as backside snow. Snow 2-4″ mainly Thursday night. Ice accumulation .2-.3
East side of the green, I think this is typical hrrr error, rushes mild air in too fast. I think this area has pockets of freezing rain into Thursday afternoon, before light rain for a period going back to snow overnight 1-2″
Subject to change, those are the current thoughts.

1z HRRR (11/15)

I like the HRRR in this setup. Climatologically it looks like a setup I’ve seen many times. The 3km Nam that I typically favor, looks odd. Very odd.

1Z HRRR

Nov 13(Tues)           min.      max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley        26.1      33.8     29.9

Garrett College       26.3       34.0    30.1

Can-Heights            24.3       41.5    32.9

CRN-Canaan          25.4        39.4     32.4

Cabin Mt.               22.1       40.3      31.2

Cabin Mt north     23.4       40.8      32.1

Spruce Knob         22.1       38.3      30.2

Snowshoe              22.6       39.4      31.0

Can-Valley Floor   26.4      39.4      32.8

7Springs                 22.0      33.0      27.5

Cloudy, fog, some freezing rain last night in spots, mainly across northern Alleghenies.. High ground in Garrett retained some ice above 2750-2800 all day.  Thick fog across Wv mts, temps falling. Rime forming in the trees. Also some passing light snow today, no accu.

Temp profile this afternoon……

 

 

Radar 11/13/18. Picked up .3 at Bittinger 2nw Valley

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow…

 

Pics, webcam shot

 

 

Nov 12(Mon)           min.      max.    avg

Bitt 2nw valley       21.6       40.3     30.9

Garrett College        22.9       43.7     33.3

Can-Heights            31.6        43.8     37.7

CRN-Canaan           27.0        44.1     35.6

Cabin Mt.                32.0        41.5     36.7

Cabin Mt north      28.8        42.4    35.6

Spruce Knob           30.6       39.2    34.9

Snowshoe               28.8       41.9     35.3

Can-Valley Floor   19.2       46.4     32.8

7Springs                 29.3       41.1     35.2

Cloudy, light SE flow. Very dry mid to low levels. Cloud deck lowered, radar began showing precip in the afternoon, mainly virga(Not reaching the ground). Temps rose upper 30s, low 40s..dewpoints in the 20s. As precip began and low levels became saturated temps fell off into the low 30s. Some ice pellets and a little freezing in the trees..

Temp profile this afternoon, temps fell off with precip entering from this point

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm. Once again poor radar estimates. These estimates look to be showing more hitting the ground vs reality

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

 

Snowshoe this morning..very dry air in place aided snow making, especially at the base where it was colder vs the top.

On the models….

Light precip tonight, that has had some light freezing rain, ice pellets, flakes north, and plain rain continues into tomorrow morning where it changes to lighy snow. Coating to inch maxes…bigger event Thursday. Precip type will vary on location. Right now a fairly significant icing event, with sleet as well with 4+” of backend snow look possible. Timing, strength, track will ultimately determine precip type, amount

12z ECMWF precip type next 240hrs

Nov 11(Sun)              min.     max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley         12.3      37.8     25.0

Garrett College         13.8       44.3      29.0

Can-Heights              10.0     39.0       24.5

CRN-Canaan              9.2       41.3      25.3

Cabin Mt                  12.4       37.0      24.7

Cabin Mt north       13.6       38.3     25.9

Spruce Knob           14.9       34.3     24.6

Snowshoe                18.9      38.1     28.5

Can-Valley Floor      6.6      42.6     24.6

7Springs                  17.4      37.4     27.4

Ckear skies, dry air in place

Temp profile this afternoon

 

no precip

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

 

7:15 am temps across Canaan, from 7° on the valley floor to 22° on Bald Knob

Snowshoe made snow through the day, despite air temps of+32…very dry air in place, wet bulb temps remained low enough for snow making