Dec 21(Fri)              min.      max     avg

Bitt 2nw valley       30.7      50.9      40.8

Garrett College      30.7      55.4       43.1

Can-Heights           27.9      51.6       39.8

CRN-Canaan           29        53          41

Cabin Mt                25.5      47.5      36.5

Cabin Mt north     x

Spruce Knob         25.0       44.8      34.9

Snowshoe              25.2      45.7       35.5

Can-Valley Floor  30.0      53.8      41.9

7Springs.               28.1      47.3      37.7

Cloudy, showers, some low fog to start. Valleys cooler than high areas. By late morning all areas 48-55.. Some breaks of sun, even a rainbow. Clouds, fog, rain return afternoon, dropping temps, rain to snow by 7pm. Ground white by 8pm.

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar with 24 estimates 10pm. At 7am Bittinger 2nw in at .33

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Pics today

 

Looking ahead

Snow tonight, general 2-4 eastern Alleghenies, 3-6″ central, 4-8 best upslope areas….  A event Sunday night looks to drop a few more inches…  Christmas Day looks to have snow on the ground

Dec 20(Thur)           min.     max      avg

Bitt 2nw valley       21.7       41.4     31.5

Garrett College       25.9     47.2      36.5

Can-Heights           35.9      46.8     41.3

CRN-Canaan         29       48         39.5

Cabin Mt               36.0      46.1      41.0

Cabin Mt north    x

Spruce Knob        36.0      42.1     39.0

Snowshoe            34.7       45.3    40.0

Can-Valley Floor 17.8       48.4    33.1

7Springs                34.0      43.7   38.8

Mainly clear start, fairly wide temp ranges overnight from valley to high ground. Clouds building in, rain in the afternoon. Temps into the 30-35 range in eastern Alleghenies. Weather Service with their grid forecast will never get this right apparently, despite it being modeled very well.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

 

As much as I hate this, the NWS forecast grid, the repeatedly using of this grid to forecast temps in this setup is just plain awful. This is probably the 1000th time I’ve mentioned it over the years. Why on earth is this grid used, when there are high real models that do much better and have proven so, time and time again. No forecast mentioned 30s this afternoon, let alone near freezing. 3km Nam showed it clearly and the models track record in the setup is phenomenal.   Let’s look… Temps, then NWS forecast beginning tonight.. You’ll see not only well off this evening, they flood the warmth back in way to fast tonight. Big consistent warm bias…

 

12z 3km Nam 2m temperatures from the morning

Now a look back to last night..

That was min forecast. That is airport grid based..That forecast done poor for most locations. High ground held near 36-40 most of the night. A lot of towns sit a  little lower, a lot of people live in valleys, hollows, creek bottoms. Temps there ran mostly 20-27°. (Coldest pockets teens) Why would you not give a forecast for those 2 distinct areas vs a general 32° everyone near or above freezing…not even remotely near reality. The temps were off that not very long after that forecast was issued.

 

Dec 19(Wed)             min.     max     avg

Bitt 2nw valley       16.0       45.2      30.6

Garrett College        18.3      48.6      33.4

Can-Heights              21.7     45.5      33.6

CRN-Canaan             24.2     47.3      35.7

Cabin Mt.                  29.8     44.4     37.1

Cabin Mt north       x

Spruce Knob          28.8       42.6    35.7

Snowshoe               30.2      44.6    37.4

Can-Valley Floor   11.7      48.4    30.0

7Springs                  26.4     43.5    35.0

Mainly clear night, calm conditions. Pretty good temp variations this morning…Higher clouds on and off through the day

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Radar void of precip

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

 

Dec 18(Tues)            min       max      avg

Bitt 2nw valley        17.4       31.6      24.5

Garrett College        20.3      33.9      27.1

Can-Heights            20.1      30.4      25.2

CRN-Canaan          20.3       33.0      26.6

Cabin Mt.               16.3      30.9      23.6

Cabin Mt north    x

Spruce Knob        x

Snowshoe             16.3        38.1      27.2

Can-Valley Floor 14.2       35.8       25.0

7Springs                21.8      28.8      25.3

Cloudy start, a few stray tiny flakes briefly early…then skies breaking for sun and blue skies..

Temp profile this afternoon

Radar void of precip

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

 

Wisp 7:30pm

Canaan Resort report by Justin Harris

On the models

Rain pushing in Friday, changes to snow overnight. Looking like a 2-5″ evebt into Saturday and that may need tweaked up or down a little as we get closer. Maybe a few festive flakes Christmas eve, borderline temps… Christmas Day looking dry, with precip coming in overnight or the following day. Long ways off, and lots of tweaks between  now and then.

Dec 17(Mon)            min.     max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley        28.2      39.1     33.6

Garrett College        27.5     40.1     33.8

Can-Heights            25.5      36.1     30.8

CRN-Canaan           26.8      38.7     32.7

Cabin Mt                 22.3      32.0     27.1

Cabin Mt north   x

Spruce Knob       21.0       30.9      25.9

Snowshoe             21.7      33.3     27.5

Can-Valley Floor 28.0      39.9     33.9

7Springs               24.6      33.3     29.0

Mainly cloudy start, high ground fog in Wv creating a little rime….increasing sun through the day with blustery chilly winds.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm…little drizzle early last night, other than that, mainly dry

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Dec 16(Sun)         min.      max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley      34.3      41.8      38.0

Garrett College     34.5       42.2     38.3

Can-Heights          32.1       39.5     35.8

CRN-Canaan         33.2       41.5     37.3

Cabin Mt               30.5       36.5     33.5

Cabin Mt north   x

Spruce Knob       30.2       37.2     33.7

Snowshoe             30.7     40.1     35.4

Can-Valley Floor 33.9     39.9     36.9

7Springs                32.1    37.5     34.8

Cloudy, drizzly, fog, some high eastern spots on the northern extent of 4000′ Allegheny Front likely had a touch of ice this a.m. That was limited and not as widespread as modeled and the area under an advisory.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm, Bittinger 2nw/AKA Accident 3.9E with .32 more since last evening messurent for a storm total of 2.3″

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Dec 15(Sat)             min.      max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley      34.9      49.1      42.0

Garrett College     38.0      48.7      43.3

Can-Heights          39.4      46.6      43.0

CRN-Canaan         41.5      49.0     45.2

Cabin Mt.               37.9     44.2    41.0

Cabin Mt north    37.4     43.5     40.4

Spruce Knob        36.7     44.1     40.4

Snowshoe             39.2     45.1     42.2

Can-Valley Floor  41.7     49.1    45.9

7Springs               37.6      46.3     41.9

Rain, some fog, easterly winds, moist, damp, just plain miserable. The rainfall put some creeks, smaller waterways out of their banks. Locally, the Cassleman was out of its banks and over a few roadways.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm. Bittinger 2nw, now listed as Accident 3.9E Cocorahs site ran by Bill Buckle with 1.98 rainfall for event total through 6pm, additional rain falling

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

 

On the models….

Watching the possibility for some wintry precip tomorrow. Maybe a burst of wet snow, and a little ice. Some disagreement within the modeling. Here are a few short range models that have it.

0z 3km Nam Simulated Radar

Hrrr simulated radar

Dec 14(Fri)             min.     max.      avg

Bitt 2nw valley     26.0      37.4      31.7

Garrett College     32.6      41.2      36.9

Can-Heights          34.0      46.0      40.0

CRN-Canaan        32.3       48.5     40.4

Cabin Mt              37.6       44.4     41.0

Cabin Mt north    33.8      45.3     39.5

Spruce Knob         32.0     41.7     36.8

Snowshoe             34.2      44.1    39.2

Can-Valley Floor  21.0     48.9    34.9

7Springs                30.0     42.4    36.2

Cloudy, lighy, damp east flow. Light rain beginning in the afternoon. Temps with the east flow were much colder in Garrett than the NWS forecast. A repeated occurrence for many many years. 3km Nam continues to model this excellent.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Radar with estimates 9pm-9pm

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Dec 13(Thurs)          min.     max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley         26.5      42.5     34.5

Garrett College        32.3       44.3     38.3

Can-Heights             34.5       40.2    37.3

CRN-Canaan            31.0       40.9     35.9

Cabin Mt.                 32.0       39.6.    35.8

Cabin Mt north      33.1       38.3     35.7

Spruce Knob          29.5      36.0      32.7

Snowshoe               31.1      41.5      36.3

Can-Valley Floor   22.5      42.1      32.3

7Springs                 31.0      40.5      35.8

Mainly cloudy day, few isolated sprinkles early. Brief, very brief peaks of sun.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Dec 12(Wed)          min.      max.     avg

Bitt 2nw valley       18.7      36.5     27.6

Garrett College       24.5      39.3    31.9

Can-Heights            20.2     36.4     28.3

CRN-Canaan           22.4     36.5     29.5

Cabin Mt                19.6      34.9     27.2

Cabin Mt north     20.8     35.4     28.1

Spruce Knob         18.9     30.7     24.8

Snowshoe              20.3     32.7    26.5

Can-Valley Floor  19.2     38.3    28.7

7Springs                 23.0     37.8    30.4

Mainly clear start with high cloud deck building and lowering into the afternoon before briefly breaking predusk.. Then clouds rolling back in after dark with extremely light, scattered ice pellets to a touch of drizzle. With temps >32 in areas.

Temp profile this afternoon

 

Radar….very very, I stress light precip after dark

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

 

Few pics on the day. Actually a guy out ice fishing in Cherry Creek Cove on Deep Creek Lake

 

Video from Canaan Valley Resort by Justin Harris