December 29, 2019

/ alleghenymountainsweather

December 29, 2019

Dec 29(Sun)

Cloudy, drizzle, rain, fog, light easterly flow.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[34.5]—MAX[48.8]—AVERAGE MEAN[41.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[42.5]—PRECIP[T]7am

Snowfall season to date 20.8″

Garrett College

MIN[43.7]—MAX[52.9]—AVERAGE MEAN[48.3]—TRUE AVERAGE[47.9]—PRECIP[.25]

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[46.0]—MAX[56.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[51.0]—PRECIP[.01]7am

Snowfall season to date 28.6″

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[45.0]—MAX[53.6]—AVERAGE MEAN[49.3]—TRUE AVERAGE[50.1]—PRECIP[.31]

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[45.5]—[55.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[50.2]—TRUE AVERAGE[51.1]—PRECIP[.20]

Spruce Knob

MIN[42.1]—MAX[51.3]—AVERAGE MEAN[46.7]—TRUE AVERAGE[47.7]—PRECIP[.20]

Snowshoe

MIN[44.1]—MAX[51.6]—AVERAGE MEAN[47.8]—TRUE AVERAGE[48.3]

Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[33.6]—MAX[58.1]—AVERAGE MEAN[45.8]—TRUE AVERAGE[49.9]

7Springs

MIN[42.0]—MAX[52.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[47.1]—TRUE AVERAGE[45.9]

Cumberland Airport

MIN[38.8]—MAX[44.7]—AVERAGE MEAN[41.7]—TRUE AVERAGE[42.3]

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

Comparison view

Along I-68 Morgantown to Cumberland

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

Pics today-

Bittinger 2nw

things even refroze overnight while many areas remained 40s

Making hay in a rainy pattern…

Post generated 10am

Making hay in a rainy pattern may be the equivalent to getting snow in a mild pattern. There is usually a break for it to occur. There is the light snow event to close out 2019 this week, that goes to meet its maker late week with the return of the SW flow.

However, the best chance that I still like, is a period around the 6-9th give or take a day for the chance to “make hay” in this pattern for those longing for snow. Cold air should be able to make a push in this period.

After that time, there is a lot of high pressure and very cold air in western Canada, unfortunately it does not look like it will push east, but instead sink into the west as the trough again pulls back west and allows the Southeast Ridge to flex it muscles and strengthen and we go back to square 1. Modeling supports that. Trough rebuilds west of Hawaii- Trough pulls back into the western U.S

500mb Height anomalies off the 0z ECMWF ensemble

500mb height anomalies off the 6z GFS ensemble

500mb height anomalies off the 6z GFS operational

At the surface

MSLP/6HR/PRECIP off the 6z GFS

While most modeling is in agreement to watch the 6-9th period, in what could be the best snow of the season to date. In the model world that is a long ways out, but it is good to see agreement and some consistency. Hopefully we see adjustments after that period for the better, because currently it does not look good.

Along with the trough looking to sink in the west, southeast ridge strengthening backing support of the eastern ridge, this is also supported by the models MJO

if we circle out into 4,5,6, that is just ugly. The correlation with those phases for the time of year are

The Euro ensemble mean temps by the 12th look like

The GFS ensemble

Question is, when does it get kicked east?? Soon following that period in mid January or do we wait until later January or February? There is lots of cold back there to come of it can get east… With the Mjo looking ugly, trough west of Hawaii, trough western U.S, southeast ridge, this may not be in any hurry eastward. Things can change though. Never lose hope. While 1937 is one like example, and undeniably it does look a lot like it, and it may end up resembling it when all is said and done, but it is not etched in stone it that it will.

Evening addition to the 1937 theme

Day 15 ECMWF 500mb height anomalies

1937 Reanalysis 500mb Height anomalies. Strong positives off Alaska, trough west of Hawaii, trough western U.S, eastern ridging…

Back to the now:

Rainy today into tomorrow

Models putting out +/- a half inch. More west

Temp begin falling later Monday and especially overnight. Maybe into the snow making realm…best snow making opportunity though comes Tuesday night straight through Wednesday night

Temps off the 3km Nam. The fascinating boundary across Garrett today into early Monday, not cold, just chillier than areas south and west of the boundary. Those areas will be mild to warm.

Case in point, this morning the separation from Savage Mt in east Garrett to Cabin Mt in Tucker is evident

Snowfall Tuesday into early Wednesday

First the GFS and Canadian

Then once again the ECMWF takes a step back…hmmm

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