December 31, 2019

Dec 31(Tues)

Some very fine light snow early, mainly just cloudy, windy, few peaks of sun and much colder today. All models except the ECMWF over doing the snow today. Almost all remained north until after dark some into Garrett.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[27.4]—MAX[36.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[31.8]—TRUE AVERAGE[32.1]—PRECIP[.01]

Snowfall-trace

Snowfall season to date 20.8″

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Garrett College

MIN[27.7]—MAX[36.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[31.8]—TRUE AVERAGE[32.0]—PRECIP[T]

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Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Data not reported yet

Climate Reference Network Canaan

MIN[26.8]—MAX[32.7]—AVERAGE MEAN[29.7]—TRUE AVERAGE[30.1]—PRECIP[.01]

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Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[21.2]—MAX[28.4]—AVERAGE MEAN[24.8]—TRUE AVERAGE[25.0]—PRECIP[F]

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Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[22.1]—MAX[29.7]—AVERAGE MEAN[25.9]—TRUE AVERAGE[26.3]—PRECIP[F]

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Spruce Knob

MIN[20.8]—MAX[28.8]—AVERAGE MEAN[24.8]—TRUE AVERAGE[24.5]—PRECIP[F]

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Snowshoe

MIN[21.4]—MAX[28.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[24.8]—TRUE AVERAGE[25.1]

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Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[26.4]—MAX[33.4]—AVERAGE MEAN[29.9]—TRUE AVERAGE[30.5]

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7Springs

MIN[23.9]—MAX[33.4]—AVERAGE MEAN[28.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[28.7]

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Cumberland Airport

MIN[35.2]—MAX[47.6]—AVERAGE MEAN[41.4]—TRUE AVERAGE[42.3]

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The Valley vs Cabin Mt

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Canaan area temps

Comparison view

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RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

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Pics today-

Bittinger area

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December 2019

TEMPS

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some of the sites

Overall monthly true average(all readings divided by the number of readings)

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Bittinger 2nw Valley

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Canaan Valley Refuge

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Bald Knob

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Spruce Knob

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Precip

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GFS OPERATIONAL ON ITS OWN……

The GFS operational recieved an upgrade over this past year, the GFS ensemble package did not. This new upgrade is going to score big or continue to look lost in the long term. The model had performed poorly. Today was a prime example. The ECMWF performed much better with most of its runs showing minimal snow. The 6z, 12z GFS today was showing accumulation directly off initialization of the run. The short range Canadian products and ECMWF had the better idea.

Now on the long range. The GFS operational has been consistent with a progressive pattern allowing cold to overwhelm the pattern mid mont . Its entirely on it’s own in this scenario. A few CFSV2 runs have done this but backed off. The 18Z GFS on January 15th

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the entire look at the run

It’s own teleconnections look like

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All anti eastern cold.

The GEFS for the time period the GFS op shows the cold pushing

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That also looks like

The ECMWF ensemble mean

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ECMWF control

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Canadian

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This pattern is all supported by

The 500mb look

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MJO

GFS and ECMWF

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The operational has been consistent in ideas already with a progressive pattern where the cold fights and pushes, unlikely thats the case. It does at least look pretty for hope….and anything is possible…

Prior to this period, the snow threats. One this weekend after the rain and mild weather Friday into Saturday, and one mid week next week. Both of these have potential to be the best snow makers of the season so far.

12z ECMWF MSLP/6HR/PRECIP

18z GFS MSLP/6HR/PRECIP

12z Canadian