February 8, 2020

February 8(Sat)

After some heavy pockets early overnight, light lingering snow occured early morning with a few flurries about during the day until another wave of precip crossed the area starting late afternoon, early overnight. Mainly cloudy today with a glimmer of sun.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[20.7]—MAX[27.9]—AVERAGE MEAN[24.3]—TRUE AVERAGE[24.3]

New snowfall of 2.2″ from 5pm last night through 7am boardsweep. With the light snow this morning and again restarting later afternoon, another .3″ fell at the 5pm boardsweep with snow continuing.

Snow depth at 7am 4.4″

Snowfall season to date 44.8″

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Garrett College

MIN[20.7]—MAX[29.4]—AVERAGE MEAN[25.0]—TRUE AVERAGE[24.5]—PRECIP[F]

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Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[16.0]—MAX[27.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[21.5]—PRECIP[.33]

New snowfall 4.3″

Snow depth 4

Snowfall season to date 57.3″

Comments by Dave Lesher at:

http://data.canaanmtnsnow.com

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Climate Reference Network Canaan

MIN[17.5]—MAX[27.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[22.3]—TRUE AVERAGE[22.0]—PRECIP[.11]

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Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[13.3]—MAX[23.5]—AVERAGE MEAN[18.4]—TRUE AVERAGE[18.1]—PRECIP[F]

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Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[14.5]—MAX[25.9]—AVERAGE MEAN[20.2]—TRUE AVERAGE[19.6]—PRECIP[F]

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Spruce Knob

MIN[11.8]—MAX[27.1]—AVERAGE MEAN[19.4]—TRUE AVERAGE[18.3]

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Snowshoe

MIN[12.4]—MAX[24.1]—AVERAGE MEAN[18.2]—TRUE AVERAGE[17.9]

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Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[19.0]—MAX[30.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[24.5]—TRUE AVERAGE[23.7]

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7Springs

MIN[18.5]—MAX[24.4]—AVERAGE MEAN[21.4]—TRUE AVERAGE[21.5]

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Cumberland Airport

MIN[27.8]—MAX[37.5]—AVERAGE MEAN[32.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[32.6]

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The Valley vs Cabin Mt

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Canaan area temps

Comparison view

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RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

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Pics today

Bittinger/Mchenry/Deep Creek/Oakland area

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February 7, 2020

Feb 7(Fri)

Rain overnight changing to snow before 6a.m. A brief heavy burst around 7am, then light before increasing in the afternoon. Towards nightfall and through 10pm some heavy squalls pushed across the area and put down some rapid accumulation.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[20.9]—MAX[43.9]—AVERAGE MEAN[32.4]—TRUE AVERAGE[27.5]

New snowfall through 5p.m boardsweep at 2.9″.The heavy squalls that occured after 5pm will be included in tomorrow mornings 7am tally. No measurement or boardsweep was done this morning since the snow had just began.

Snowfall season to date at 42.3″

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Garrett College

MIN[20.8]—MAX[44.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[27.4]—TRUE AVERAGE[27.4]—PRECIP[.33] *then snow

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Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[16.0]—MAX[47.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[31.5]—PRECIP[.53]7am

New snowfall through 7am only at .4″. Todays snow will be included in tomorrow’s tally

Snowfall season to date 53.0″

Comments by Dave Lesher at:

http://data.canaanmtnsnow.com

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Climate Reference Network Canaan

MIN[17.7]—MAX[49.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[33.3]—TRUE AVERAGE[25.8]—PRECIP[.59]this includes melted snow

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Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[13.8]—MAX[45.5]—AVERAGE MEAN[29.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[23.1]—PRECIP[.37] then snow not included

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Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[14.5]—MAX[46.8]—AVERAGE MEAN[30.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[23.8]—PRECIP[.28] then snow not included

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Spruce Knob

MIN[12.4]—MAX[43.3]—AVERAGE MEAN[27.8]—TRUE AVERAGE[22.6]—PRECIP[.34]snow not included

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Snowshoe

MIN[12.7]—MAX[43.9]—AVERAGE MEAN[28.3]—TRUE AVERAGE[22.2]

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Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[19.2]—MAX[50.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[34.7]—TRUE AVERAGE[27.7]

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7Springs

MIN[19.1]—MAX[34.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[26.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[23.4]

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Cumberland Airport

MIN[28.4]—MAX[42.8]—AVERAGE MEAN[35.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[36.2]

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The Valley vs Cabin Mt

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Canaan area temps

Comparison view

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RTMA

Radar

Radar doing poor at showing precip over the high ground.

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

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pics today

Bittinger/McHenry area

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webcams

10 am update-

The haves and have notes with the initial thump. Through around 9 am, reports of 2 to near 4″ have occured on the west side of the mts… and along the western ridges in the northern Alleghenies. A 3″ report near 7Springs, 4″ report near the Pre/Mon/Taylor County border in Wv, and the same as you go towards Pittsburgh, with nearly 5″ reported in Indiana , Pa. While at 8am near Bittinger I was at .9″.

So, a boom in areas with the initial burst and a bust in areas. Interesting in the fact that once again, a scenario that’s become common place and way too frequently. The models initialized wrong again. The GFS max amounts, as well as short range mesoscale guidance was just further east..with several inches by 7am further east. About 50 miles or so vs reality. I do not ever recall models initializing wrong so frequently time and time again.

Now, the initial burst was 1 aspect of the event. Forecasted totals through Saturday a.m are still well within range, but missing out on the initial burst for the majority of the high ground, which modeling totally blew, that’s a setback, but can be made up in some lake streamers and upslope later on.

-My thoughts from yesterday for this event were as followed

My thoughts on some select areas for part 1…

7Springs 3-6″

Somerset 1-3″

Mt.Davis 3-6″

Grantsville 1-3″

Bittinger 2-5″

Oakland 2-4″

Cranesville 3-6″

Terra Alta 3-6″ (Any interested weather gurus here? A snow observer needed in this area)

Coopers Rock 2-4″

Davis 4-7″

Canaan Heights 4-7″

Canaan Valley 3-6″

Parson 1-3″

Whitmer 2-4″

Onego 1-2″

Elkins 2-4″

Snowshoe 4-7″

Highland Scenic Highway 4-7″

Marlinton 1-3″

Those totals are well within reach still. And 7Springs is already there and likely Coopers Rock close if not. Guidance yesterday afternoon would have suggested upping the amounts. But again, it’s been beyond poor.

Still watch for heavy burst, some streamers and isolated whiteout conditions at times. Other wise snowfall varying from light at times to moderate and over the duration of the next 24 hours should get into the totals window. Some areas on the west side of the Mts will likely exceed expected totals.

February 6, 2020

Feb 6(Thurs)

A trace of ice pre dawn before temps rose. Few showers, heavier rain south.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[29.4]—MAX[50.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[39.7]—TRUE AVERAGE[39.4]

Still a few patches of snow remain in the woods.

Snowfall season to date 39.4″

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Garrett College

MIN[29.7]—MAX[52.1]—AVERAGE MEAN[40.9]—TRUE AVERAGE[42.6]—PRECIP[.13]

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Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Will fill in shortly

Climate Reference Network Canaan

MIN[42.8]—MAX[54.7]—AVERAGE MEAN[48.8]—TRUE AVERAGE[49.1]—PRECIP[.24]

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Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[44.8]—MAX[51.6]—AVERAGE MEAN[48.2]—TRUE AVERAGE[47.3]—PRECIP[.31]

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Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[44.4]—MAX[54.9]—AVERAGE MEAN[49.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[48.2]—PRECIP[.22]

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Spruce Knob

MIN[40.1]—MAX[46.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[43.1]—TRUE AVERAGE[43.8]—PRECIP[.47]

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Snowshoe

MIN[41.2]—MAX[46.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[43.7]—TRUE AVERAGE[44.7]

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Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[44.1]—MAX[57.6]—AVERAGE MEAN[50.8]—TRUE AVERAGE[50.3]

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7Springs

MIN[28.3]—MAX[50.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[39.2]—TRUE AVERAGE[40.9]

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Cumberland Airport

MIN[35.2]—MAX[41.1]—AVERAGE MEAN[38.1]—TRUE AVERAGE[38.4]

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The Valley vs Cabin Mt

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Canaan area temps

Comparison view

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RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

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The roller coaster ride of temps continues ….

After a chill down yesterday for parts, not all of the area, we rebound today and fall again tomorrow.

The ice event overnight underperformed mainly due to a lack of moisture. Temps did come into the expected range overnight. My temps near Bittinger were in range and there was trace ice , but not enough to cause any issues…

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Temps rising today, holding steady the first part of the night and falling late

Rainfall this afternoon and overnight off the models

6z ECMWF and 6z GFS

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Not surprisingly the NWS has a Flood Watch in the expected heavy rain areas

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Towards tomorrow morning the wet turns to white. I think this has the potential to be a bit dramatic from 1 hour to the next early tomorrow morning as rain goes to snow and a quick thump of snow after changeover. By quick thump a rapid 1-3 inches over a couple hour period. That’s something that will need monitored today and again early tomorrow morning, but something to be aware of. Overall the snow activity runs into Friday night with even spotty activity until Saturday morning. The brunt of this round should be done prior to midnight.

Now I’ll run through models and NOAA products as well as my thoughts on part 1

6z GFS

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6z ECMWF

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UKMET (10 to 1)

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WPC- typically they do better with this and actually show the max over the high ground. This is like what a model physics error does and places the max west of the Mts like this is the Rockies here. It is not. Again a tool, not a high res look.

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The NWS for part 1 through Saturday a.m … I see some odd things from Charleston on max potential. It looks like the elevation factor was less of an influence in their forecast than should be.

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I’m not going to bother with the State College products as they are only going out until tomorrow 1pm with the graphics above.

My thoughts on some select areas for part 1…

7Springs 3-6″

Somerset 1-3″

Mt.Davis 3-6″

Grantsville 1-3″

Bittinger 2-5″

Oakland 2-4″

Cranesville 3-6″

Terra Alta 3-6″ (Any interested weather gurus here? A snow observer needed in this area)

Coopers Rock 2-4″

Davis 4-7″

Canaan Heights 4-7″

Canaan Valley 3-6″

Parson 1-3″

Whitmer 2-4″

Onego 1-2″

Elkins 2-4″

Snowshoe 4-7″

Highland Scenic Highway 4-7″

Marlinton 1-3″

Again watch for changeover early tomorrow morning. A quick thump could disrupt schools in the morning.

Now Saturday night with another disturbance. That overall looks like a widespread 1-3″ type event. Tweaks may be needed.

February 5, 2020

Feb 5(Wed)

Falling temps, some very light trace ice in the morning and again overnight. Light drizzle. Some fog today as well, otherwise mainly just cloudy.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[28.2]—MAX[41.8]—AVERAGE MEAN[35.0]—TRUE AVERAGE[31.9]

Only isolated patches of snow remain.

Snowfall on the season 39.4″

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Garrett College

MIN[29.2]—MAX[42.5]—AVERAGE MEAN[35.8]—TRUE AVERAGE[32.0]—PRECIP[.04]

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Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Min[33.0]—[47.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[40.0]—PRECIP[.45]7am

Snowdepth 0

Snowfall season to date 52.6″

Comments by Dave Lesher at

http://data.canaanmtnsnow.com

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Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[34.5]—MAX[46.8]—AVERAGE MEAN[40.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[42.6]—PRECIP[.31]

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Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[27.7]—MAX[46.6]—AVERAGE MEAN[37.1]—TRUE AVERAGE[35.9]—PRECIP[.29]

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Spruce Knob

Incomplete data

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Snowshoe

MIN[42.4]—MAX[47.5]—AVERAGE MEAN[44.9]—TRUE AVERAGE[45.6]

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Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[31.1]—MAX[50.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[40.5]—TRUE AVERAGE[38.3]

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7Springs

MIN[24.1]—MAX[31.1]—AVERAGE MEAN[27.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[27.3]

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Cumberland Airport

MIN[34.5]—MAX[54.1]—AVERAGE MEAN[44.3]—TRUE AVERAGE[40.6]

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The Valley vs Cabin Mt

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Canaan area temps

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Northern Cabin vs Southern Cabin/Bald Knob

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RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

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Feb 4(Tues)

Cloudy, breezy day, temps were mild. Scattered light showers.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[41.9]—MAX[57.3]—AVERAGE MEAN[49.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[50.2]

Snowdepth- Trace and patchy

Snowfall season to date 39.4″

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Garrett College

MIN[43.1]—MAX[57.7]—AVERAGE MEAN[50.4]—TRUE AVERAGE[50.4]—PRECIP[.18]

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Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[44.0]—MAX[54.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[49.0]—PRECIP[.07]7am

Snow depth 2″ 7am

Snowfall season to date 52.6″

Comments by Dave Lesher at:

http://data.canaanmtnsnow.com

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Climate Reference Network Canaan

MIN[44.8]—MAX[57.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[50.5]—TRUE AVERAGE[48.3]—PRECIP[.36]

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Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[41.0]—MAX[51.4]—AVERAGE MEAN[46.2]—TRUE AVERAGE[44.8]—PRECIP[.43]

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Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[41.7]—MAX[53.1]—AVERAGE MEAN[47.4]—TRUE AVERAGE[45.7]—PRECIP[.25]

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Spruce Knob

MIN[40.6]—MAX[49.3]—AVERAGE MEAN[44.9]—TRUE AVERAGE[43.8]—PRECIP[.11]

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Snowshoe

MIN[41.7]—MAX[52.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[46.9]—TRUE AVERAGE[45.1]

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Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[45.5]—MAX[55.9]—AVERAGE MEAN[50.7]—TRUE AVERAGE[49.4]

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7Springs

MIN[31.3]—MAX[55.9]—AVERAGE MEAN[43.6]—TRUE AVERAGE[46.8]

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Cumberland Airport

MIN[43.5]—MAX[63.1]—AVERAGE MEAN[53.3]—TRUE AVERAGE[57.7]

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The Valley vs Cabin Mt

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Canaan area temps

Comparison view

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RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

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February 4, 2020

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As we go through the overnight and into tomorrow, colder air works in from the north. This continues into the overnight Wednesday. Later in the day Wednesday into the very early hours of Thursday, parts of the area look to be in the freezing rain scenario. It’s those same typical locations that should see the longest duration of freezing rain. The duration being from later tomorrow into Thursday a.m. It would not he surprising, but more likely will be expected to see some winter weather advisories issued by the NWS for later Wednesday through 7am Thursday for Garrett and points east, northeast.

Ice amounts to me look limited in most areas. From the Bittinger area and east from Meadows Mt to Savage Mt and to Dan’s Mt, south to Mt Storm, north into Somerset County , looks like the greatest risk to pick up potentially .1 to .3 ice. Due to marginal temps, and overall a short duration of the event, anything potentially higher than .3 would be on the exposed east facing ridges in this area as east winds look to be gusting at this time and that aids in freezing on contact much faster with temps 28-32 than areas not impacted by the wind.

Road issues will likely be minimal, but as always with ice, it may look wet and in reality, its ice. Use caution.

WPC OUTLOOK

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12z Euro

(Probably a touch more widespread than this)

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PITT/STATE COLLEGE/STERLING NWS

Overall that looks good, below 2500, maybe a touch high.

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The duration is brief, its rapidly out Thursday morning. Like clockwork the east wind dies, a moment of calm weather creeps in, for a hour temps slowly rise into the mid 30s early Thursday then with a snap, SW winds blow in rapidly seeing temps fly into the 50s and the ice will quickly become a memory.

Just as fast as the warmth comes back in, rain will encroach and temps will begin falling overnight Thursday and by Friday morning accumulating snow returns. As we go through the day Friday, looks like light to moderate accumulation of 2-4″ may be likely. That will be accompanied by strong gusty winds, 20-40mph with blowing snow and temps falling into the 20s, with teens by late afternoon across the Wv high ground.

After that a lull Saturday with more accumulation potential Saturday night.

February 3, 2020

Feb 3(Mon)

Mostly sunny a.m, some clouds p.m. Breezy. Very mild. Still fairly low dew points. Helping some snow remain in areas out of direct sun and wind.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[40.1]—MAX[57.4]—AVERAGE MEAN[48.7]—TRUE AVERAGE[48.9]

7:30am snow depth 2.8″

* to note- despite overnight temps failing to fall below 40°, and light winds, snow on the ground, surface that melted yesterday refroze. Shaded areas that didn’t melt yesterday still had a powder texture at 7:30am.

Snowfall season to date 39.4″

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Garrett College

MIN[42.7]—MAX[59.9]—AVERAGE MEAN[51.3]—TRUE AVERAGE[51.5]—PRECIP[0]

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Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[38.0]—MAX[57.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[47.5]—PRECIP[T]7am

Snow depth 7am 3″

Snowfall season to date 52.6″

Comments by Dave Lesher at:

http://data.canaanmtnsnow.com

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Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[36.0]—MAX[54.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[45.0]—TRUE AVERAGE[45.4]—PRECIP[0]

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Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[37.6]—MAX[55.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[46.4]—TRUE AVERAGE[46.9]—PRECIP[0]

peak wind gust 49.8mph

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Spruce Knob

MIN[35.2]—MAX[52.9]—AVERAGE MEAN[44.0]—TRUE AVERAGE[43.9]—PRECIP[0]

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Snowshoe

MIN[36.7]—MAX[53.6]—AVERAGE MEAN[45.1]—TRUE AVERAGE[46.0]

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Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[40.1]—MAX[60.1]—AVERAGE MEAN[50.1]—TRUE AVERAGE[50.5]

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7Springs

Remains offline

Cumberland Airport

MIN[45.8]—MAX[68.5]—AVERAGE MEAN[57.1]—TRUE AVERAGE[57.7]

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The Valley vs Cabin Mt

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Canaan area temps

Comparison view

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RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

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Feb 2(Super Bowl Sunday/Groundhogs day and Phil saw his shadow)

Periods of heavy snow overnight, and snow continuing into this morning ending between 9-10am. Some snow was steadily falling during this time. If you did not get a 10am measurement, your ending tally would be off as rapid melting ensued. Much like recording a springtime sno . . Along with blowing and drifting overnight). Snowfall in general of 2-4″. Henry Oester near Accident reporting 4″. Likely higher amounts above 4000′ in Tucker. Beyond 10am today, clearing skies, strong winds and rapidly rising temps. Many exposed open areas that partially blew off, was completely bare by evening.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[27.0]—MAX[46.9]—AVERAGE MEAN[36.9]—TRUE AVERAGE[36.6]

New Snowfall through 10am 3.6″. Breakdown was 3.0″ by 7am and .6″ new through 10am and the event had completed

Snow depth at 10am 4.3″

Snowfall season to date 39.4″

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Garrett College

MIN[27.2]—MAX[48.4]—AVERAGE MEAN[37.8]—TRUE AVERAGE[37.5]—PRECIP[.10]melt

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Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[25.0]—MAX[44.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[34.5]—PRECIP[.42]

New snowfall 3.8″

Snow depth 6″

Snowfall season to date 52.6″

Comments by Dave Lesher at:

http://data.canaanmtnsnow.com

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Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[22.1]—MAX[40.8]—AVERAGE MEAN[31.4]—TRUE AVERAGE[31.4]—PRECIP[.42]

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Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[22.8]—MAX[42.6]—AVERAGE MEAN[32.7]—TRUE AVERAGE[32.9]—PRECIP[.02]m

Winds gusting to 55mph today

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Spruce Knob

MIN[20.8]—MAX[40.1]—AVERAGE MEAN[30.4]—TRUE AVERAGE[30.5]—PRECIP[.04]melt

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Snowshoe

MIN[21.2]—MAX[43.7]—AVERAGE MEAN[32.4]—TRUE AVERAGE[30.6]

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Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[27.0]—MAX[46.8]—AVERAGE MEAN[36.9]—TRUE AVERAGE[37.0

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7Springs

NO DATA AGAIN

Cumberland Airport

MIN[36.8]—MAX[57.9]—AVERAGE MEAN[47.3]—TRUE AVERAGE[46.9]

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The Valley vs Cabin Mt

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Canaan area temps

Comparison view

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RTMA

Radar

Notice post 7am precip, that was a moderate period of snow.

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

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February 1, 2020

Feb 1(Sat)

Cloudy, drizzle to some snow in morning. No stickage locally, above 3500′ in Wv today snow did stick. Periods of snow ther . When precip went light here, drizzle mixed in. Snow did get going and accumulating after nightfall area wide.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

MIN[30.1]—MAX[36.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[33.0]—TRUE AVERAGE[33.2]

Snowfall- trace

Snowfall season to date 35.8″

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Garrett College

MIN[30.0]—MAX[36.7]—AVERAGE MEAN[33.3]—TRUE AVERAGE[33.8]—PRECIP[.12]+F

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Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

MIN[27.0]—MAX[35.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[31.0]—PRECIP[.02]7am

Today’s accumulation will be added in tomorrow

Snowfall season to date 48.8

Comments by Dave Lesher at

http://data.canaanmtnsnow.com

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Climate Reference Network Canaan

MIN[27.9]—MAX[34.4]—AVERAGE MEAN[31.1]—TRUE AVERAGE[31.4]—PRECIP[.33]

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Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

MIN[24.8]—MAX[32.0]—AVERAGE MEAN[28.4]—TRUE AVERAGE[29.7]—PRECIP[F]

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Cabin Mt-Western Sods

MIN[25.7]—MAX[32.9]—AVERAGE MEAN[29.3]—TRUE AVERAGE[30.3]—PRECIP[.04-May been melt or light liquid precip before turning to all snow]

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Spruce Knob

MIN[23.5]—MAX[32.5]—AVERAGE MEAN[28.0]—TRUE AVERAGE[29.2]—PRECIP[.02——]

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Snowshoe

MIN[24.1]—MAX[31.8]—AVERAGE MEAN[27.9]—TRUE AVERAFE[29.5]

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Canaan Valley Refuge

MIN[29.1]—MAX[37.9]—AVERAGE MEAN[33.5]—TRUE AVERAGE[33.3]

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7Springs

NO DATA

Cumberland Airport

MIN[28.5]—MAX[39.2]—AVERAGE MEAN[33.8]—TRUE AVERAGE[34.0]

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RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow

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Makes no sense…..

Post generated 8:30am 2/1/20

Yesterday I mentioned checking this morning to see of models are initializing ok. They look to be. There has been NO snow overnight, models NEVER had any snow overnight or early morning. Yet, forecast have. The official NWS forecast has had snow early and then I was further confused. The NWS forecast has snow showers likely this morning, changing to snow and rain mixed this afternoon. What? This morning supports liquid, snow mix, this afternoon supports snow, is more in line with reality…heavier precip should be primarily snow across the high ground 2600-3000’+

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Under light precip and 850s at and plus 0 this morning it’s going to snow??? But as the precip picks up as we go through the day and 850s go to -2 to -3 it rains??? That’s not how it works.

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And the soundings

Sounding 1 supports some liquid this morning as we are seeing with the light precip

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Sounding 2 supports snow this afternoon/evening

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so yesterday the forecast had a 0% chance of 4″ in Canaan. All models supported the possibility of it. Now this morning the forecast has a 22% chance. The models have held steady eddy.

4% chance then

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4″ chance now- nothing on models has changed.

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Snowfall off the models- comparisons to yesterday can be seen off previous post.

6z ECMWF

KUCHERA

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10 to 1

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Total qpf, and that first tenth of precip doesn’t even arrive until this afternoon! That will be in snow form across the high ground. 2500-3000’+

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6z GFS

KUCHERA

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10 TO 1

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Total qpf, again it supports drizzle this morning as the precip does not increase until this afternoon!

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0z Canadian aye…

KUCHERA

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10 TO 1

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Total qpf

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National Model Blend

10 to 1

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I’d still lean

1800-2500 1-3″, leaning towards low to mid range and the low range with melting at 1800′- 2000

2500-3500 2-4″ leaning low to mid range,,and a good performance gets the high end

3500′ and up- 3-6″ leaning low to mid range, but with temps being critical elsewhere at the onset, this zone is all good.

This is accompanied by some gusty winds overnight and snow activity runs into the morning on Sunday and things gradually mild up through the afternoon ahead of very mild air early to mid next week. With a fight of cold air pushing towards the mason dixon at times. If it pushes, forecasted number will be too high.

This was never a overnight or early morning snow on the models. So, as of now, models are doing ok.