Ice overnight,,brief temp rise, then steadily falling with any freezing drizzle , drizzle mixed with snow went to all windblown fluff through morning into the evening.
A few more light rainshowers overnight then temperatures falling from low 40s after midnight to near 30F at daybreak produced some light freezing drizzle. Light snow commenced before mid morning and becoming mostly steady in the afternoon and evening. Temperatures falling into the low teens by evening.
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt. Davis
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt/Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3479′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961′
Cloudy, east wind increasing, classic cold wedge. A period of morning sleet, a break and sleet, freezing rain later in the day in the cold zones. Rain milder spots
A few sprinkles of rain overnight and later in the day, temperatures slowly rising through the 30s
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Post made 8:02am 2/15/21
NWS out with an advisory across the board, but this is not an across the board event. Some areas impacted more than others within the advisory and the wild card that could be in play.(more further below) Patchy freezing drizzle today, (mild areas drizzle)main precip later today, this evening into tonight..
Ice amounts from the NWS, likely more widespread than reality will have it
Sterling
Very little ice across the Wv high ground with the exception of the Allegheny Front. Thats at most a 4-6 hour affair there. The Canaan area temps at 7am this morning already at and above freezing
And mesoscale modeling pics that out well
How well is modeling doing out of the gate elsewhere
7am temps modeled at
26 off the hrrr for Garrett Airport
25 off the GFS
26 off the Euro
And 24 off the km Nam
Reality shows
And nearby Bittinger
So still a bit of a mild bias to modeling that “could” play a role later on.
Modeling holds temps in the colder zone at and below freezing today
29 and 31 off the 3km Nam and Euro for Garrett Airport
This puts into play the wild card and an overlooked concern that I dont believe the weather service is in tune with. They’re in Sterling and not on top of minute details.
That wild card
RIME…if that rime does not come off today, its heaviest on east facing areas, tonight’s wind and rain will be plastering from the east absorbing into and over already rime coated trees. That will
1- lead to less runoff before freezing into branches, adding weight
2- a greater circumference area for the winds to catch vs if the rime is not there
winds
And other modeling putting out strong easterly gust
This while temps should yet be below freezing
Thats potentially the biggest impact and currently a overlooked wild card.
Temps, the GFS milds things up by midnight in the coldest zones to a plain rain event. Unlikely, but if it should occur that will drastically reduce impacts.
At 3am the 3km Nam still with classic zone..this model isnt great at precip amounts, but great on the temp setup…it tends to excel in the setup.
The Nam, Euro hold temps at and below freezing in the coldest zones 2-am to 5am…there is usually a model bias and classic areas of eastern Garrett hold on longer.
My thoughts for evening into the overnight…
a a complicated setup with a few degrees making a world of difference. Its a lights on lights off difference. We’ve been here before and this has shifted to the classic wedge setup.
Even the coldest modeling does briefly bring temps above freezing for 2-4 hours tomorrow morning. Not by much. Then the question is, does the ice fall off before the much colder air BLOWS back in. Because it looks windy as we go through tomorrow with winds shifting NW, temps into the low to mid 20s and teens overnight tomorrow..single digits eventually.
Then Thursday is the next event. A bit colder system as it appears now with more snow and sleet involved. This event once looked like that.
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt. Davis
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt/Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3479, Kw99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961′,
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Surface features and 500mb height anomalies and flow
Here we are, within 36-48 hours of what is potentially a significant ice event in some areas and modeling has some minor differences, with major implications….
Currently in Garrett, near Bittinger the rime is coated thick and very photogenic
Rock Lodge Rd morning 2/14/21
Rime at this thickness does not carry a lot of weight….but
Does that rime melt off today, melt off tomorrow prior to the potential freezing rain??
The GFS says yes and the GFS says what freezing rain. Isolated and not much..Monday afternoon the 6z GFS runs temps above freezing, rime would rapidly fall off..
Overnight the GFS holds temps +32 across the area. Leading to a cold rain event for most.
Garrett College
Before colder air pushes in as precip lightens ending as a little snow. Minor deal winter wise. We escape any implications.
Last 2 runs of the Canadian are right on board with that setup in the beginning
Mondays meltoff with temps well into the 30s
then cold push occurs overnight from the NW, a slow bleed in. That always makes it take longer the higher in elevation you climb. It does allow for freezing rain to occur overnight after things melt off the trees, Garrett north, last over Wv high ground.
But the ECMWF (Euro) says the cold wedge is in play and holds temps below freezing Monday in the classic areas
remains below freezing overnight into Tuesday a.m
5am still below in the classic areas, before a brief spike of +32 occurs for 3-4 hours
And temps fall back by 8-9am
the euro puts out .3 to .5 liquid with temps below freezing in areas
Not only does the Euro hold the cold, check out the modeled wind gust at 1am Tuesday morning vs the GFS
Euro
GFS
Thats HUGE implications if one model has strong winds, freezing rain in areas, vs one model of almost 0 freezing rain and calm winds.
The Canadian again is on board with the GFS but oozes the cold in faster
But the 3km Nam is on board with the Euro
The 3km Nam which I love in the classic wedge setups, may or may not be on here depending if the wedge occurs. It is on board with the Euro holding cold Monday
Monday night
timeline
as other models reenter the cold, its not excited yet with the wedge
And it struggles with precip output, but says significant ice in areas. Putting out nearly a inch liquid
any other models to toss in. Short range mesoscale Canadian says cold Monday in the classic zone
holding into the overnight
The HRRR which has a run to 48hrs every 6 hours has cold Monday
And a fast return to the colder yet push overnight. With this scenario some areas never see +32 at any poin .
these differences are only a few degrees, but these differences are lights on or lights off in areas. If the Euro holds, thie current rime remains on the trees until the freezing rain starts, with strong east winds that will only aid in absorbing, freezing and adding circumference for the wind to catch.
If this occurs, this area is at best threat of that occuring(north central Garrett, Somerset, western Allegany-Dans Mt, and along the Allegheny Front, areas Morgantown west are mainly ice, mix risk as low level cold into those low elevations)
Orange zone best threat, yellow in the game but better risk at +32
However if the GFS scenario plays out, its mostly some cold rain, to a refreeze and then onto the next event Thursday with another complicated setup. Euro and Nam are the biggest impacts and the Candian some impact. Lets see if todays runs bring agreement. Either way I think Garrett is worthy a Winter Storm Watch and then either downgrade if it appears unlikely or upgrade if likely.
Cloudy overnight, temperatures hanging in the mid to high 20s, gradually warming to the low 30s in the afternoon with a few periods of light freezing rain then light rain.
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt. Davis
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt/Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3479′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961′
Cloudy and cold overnight with a few very light snow flurries at daybreak, ending mid morning, then cloudy through the afternoon and evening
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt. Davis
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′,,Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt/Sods 4035′,,Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3479′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961′
Cloudy and cold at daybreak. Light snow commenced shortly after mid day, continuing lightly but with little accumulation until late afternoon when changing to freezing rain, then back to snow mid evening
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Timberline
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt. Davis
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt/Sods 4035′,,Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3479′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961′
NWS updated expectations- Charleston has upped the amounts for Randolph as it looked likely yesterday and Sterling lowered amounts Garrett, and thats heavy Euro based forecast. Sterling office leans very heavy on the Euro. Lately, it has not performed well. So we’ll see
new forecast
Yesterdays forecast
What changed, lets look at the Euro progression of the last several runs
yesterday’s 6z when Sterling was all on the higher amounts
12z euro, they retained higher amounts
18z euro lowering amounts
00z Sterling reduces expectation that greatly mirror the euro changes
latest 6z run not factored in to forecast yet and hints at a possible north focus
In most regards the Euro is the top model. Lately its been terrible in the 3 day window. The storm last week it was not good on the final piece of energy Tuesday night, Wednesday morning that brough in several inches of fluff and what turned out to be the nastiest night to date of the winte . With that event, Sterling had no advisories, nothing until 3am after the snow was mostly done. Which was mostly pointless at that time. The reason, the Euro completely missed that event once we got to within 3 days. It did have it around 3 days away then lost it. I asked the Sterling office on Sunday last week if their snow maps reflected the high ratio fluff that looks to occur Tuesday night as the snow map for Garrett and Allegany were identical. My reply was, we expect no snow in our entire forecast area Tuesday night. Then it turned out to be a nasty night.
The GFS handled that well. Now the question looms is it handling this event well as it is a bit of an outlier, but its also been the most consistent the last 3 days. The runs have barely changed and have not been weak, strong, north to south like the Euro and other modeling. Lets look at the last 5 runs of the GFS
6z yesterday
12z yesterday
18z yesterday
0z today
6z today
Hows that for consistency? Even the ensemble mean has held consistent ..newest to oldest
The forecast from Charleston yesterday morning
yesterday
todays update
Pitts amounts
this only out through part 1.
high end amount is really a worthless product. Often the high end map overlaps the expected. That should never be the case.
The biggest question with this is part 2 tomorrow
GFS tomorrow night. The furthest north. It is the outlier, but most consistent
Euro for the same time period. Much further south and this would allow for the lower expectations to verify. However the Euro has been anything but consistent
Canadian splits the difference
the Nam with its typical bundle of energy issues
short range Canadian a bit north
HRRR just a weak wave..48 hours is far out for this model
overall a 5-10″ event from Cambria to Pocahontas is still my thoughts with locals Garrett to to Wv ….12+ in spots if the GFS verifies. Still like 5-10″ regardless.
After this passes by, another round over the weekend to watch, and mid next week. Mid range from the models will come with lots of run to run changes over the coming days.
Allegheny Mountains Weather 