Dec 2021 monthly snow total to date (28)

and I will run that as a complete as we will not have any more tallied this month:

*season tally in parentheses

• Bittinger 2nw Valley

DEC 2021 1.4(8.5)

DEC 2020 33.5(38.7)

• Davis 3SE

DEC 2021 2.0(13.1)

DEC 2020 35.0(41.9)

• Canaan Valley

DEC 2021 1.1(11.6)

DEC 2020 35.1(38.9)

• Snowshoe 1.0(9.3) 39.0(44.0)

DEC 2021 1.0(9.3)

DEC 2020 39.0(44.0)

• Bayard

Dec 2021 0.8(4.4)

DEC 2020 24.1(25.7)

I would like to include Oakland in this post, simply due to the fact it is a long running station. Data has went to hell the last several years and is ongoing. Oakland reported .1 total this month, the same day they reported a 1″ depth. Let’s assume that .1 was a decimal error as here is a photo from that day

Historically low December snowfall tallies. For some of these sites it will be the lowest they’ve recorded and for the longer running sites the lowest since December 1931. Just because a shorter life station hasn’t recorded it, it’s important to note, that doesn’t mean it hasn’t occurred before. The station just didn’t exist.

so let’s look back at December 1931

• Oakland reported –

• Another Garrett County station, Sines Deep Creek

• Bayard

• Westernport….. look at that, 2″ reported at the lower elevations east of the mountains. That occurs in very much the same way areas just a bit north saw it yesterday. Altoona out doing high ground ground Cambria.

• Piedmont- neighbor to Westernport adds validity to that data

• Stony River Dam

• Davis 2(in Canaan Valley)

• Marlinton

• Pickens

• Terra Alta

The list can go on. 1931 common theme. The lowest December tally at each of these sites during the duration of its lifespan. Regionally as a whole, this year appears like it will come in 2nd.

Driving the pattern-

ongoing La Nina. But wasn’t last year a La Nina. Yes. With a totally different setup in the North Pacific that’s dominating and a strong warm anomaly over the gulf that was not there last year.

ideally cooler water 30N east of the dateline and warmer anomalies into the Gulf of Alaska to the U.S west coast is what east coast snow lovers want to see.

this year you have

1- cold waters Gulf of Alaska to the PNW creating a negative PNA, promotes western trough and it feedsback on itself.

2- just to the west of the Gulf of Alaska, very warm waters promoting an Aluetian Ridge. These variances are so great and hard to break down.

3- The Gulf Of Mexico and the SE U.S coastal waters of the Atlantic. Very warm waters. Promoting the big SE ridge that likes to feedback and hold its ground. These features are strong.

As seen last winter, that was a consistently cold winter Dec-Feb. None of those factors were in place. The La Nina is not much different and IMO, the least of the factors at play in the abnormally warm, snowless December.

That setup for this year tends to lead to a 500mb pattern like

What about December 1931?

Kaplan SST reanalysis shows:

Keep in mind this isn’t the same scale as the current images. But dissect this a quick second.

1-Gulf of Alaska to US west coast. Colder anomalies. Check

2- East of the dateline at 30N and north of there. Warmer anomaly. Check. Likely promoting a Aleutian Ridge, negative PNA western trough.

3- Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Seaboard very warm anomalies. Promoting that SE ridge that is tough to budge.

Difference- 31′ occured with a El Nino, this year a La Nina. Were they the drivers….

In that 1931-32 season, things did not budge much until the seasonal jet and wavelengths began to change heading towards spring and some winter arrived in March after a dismal January and February.

With the factors in play currently, outside of brief hits, it may be hard for winter to get sustained in the high Alleghenies…For now.