October 31, 2023

October 31, 2023November 5, 2023 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

October 31, 2023

OUTLOOK:

The colder air is now entrenched in the area, but some diurnal daytime “heating” will occur with a mix of clouds and sun. Some areas picking up a touch of snow last night as enough moisture lingered to allow the incoming cold air to catch the tail end before exiting the area.

The next round which should be a bit more widespread in area and elevation pushes in tonight. The outlook remains for a 1-3″ type event with the leanings to the low and mid range of that total. Not a big deal, but the first widespread and potentially areas with slick travel will occur Wednesday a.m.

Modeled snowfall amounts below:

The cold temps will be a bigger factor Wednesday morning vs this morning. 1- it will be colder. Temps upper teens Wv high ground above 4000′, with winds gusting 25-35mph. 2500-4000′ Temps ranging from the 20-26 as you work down in elevation.

WIND GUST OFF THE 6Z ECMWF THESE CONTINUE TO EARLY AFTERNOON AND BEGIN SLACKING OFF

Afternoon temps holding at and below freezing above 3500′ -3700′. Above 4000-4200′ temps should hold 20s.

Skies begin clearing Wednesday PM. Winds begin slackening off WednesdayPM. How rapidly they slack off will determine how quick those valleys plummet Wednesday night. With modeled dewpoints looking like

That at least gives the chance those coldest valleys could potentially see some single digits. Teens and 20s elsewhere.

Then we see a moderating trend late week into early next week before the next cold shot pushes in.

For NWS office snowfall forecast click on the drop down menu option on the top left of the page and click “SNOWFALL INFO”.

REVIEW OF OCTOBER 31, 2023 ALONG WITH THE MONTHLY REVIEW

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Oct 31(Tues)

Colder day, a cold start, and the day began with some areas coated in snow. Especially the Canaan area. Sun, clouds through the day.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

West of Bittinger evening, as the sun sets on October

The Glades

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski Area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

not reporting and hasn’t for the month

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Monthly

Radar

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml?osite=RLX&tzoff=0&layers%5B%5D=nexrad&layers%5B%5D=warnings&layers%5B%5D=cwas&layers%5B%5D=uscounties&layers%5B%5D=watches&layers%5B%5D=blank&site=RLX&tz=EST&archive=yes&year=2023&month=10&day=31&hour=23&minute=55&warngeo=both&zoom=250&imgsize=640×480&loop=1&frames=90&interval=15&filter=0&cu=0&sortcol=fcster&sortdir=DESC&lsrlook=%2B&lsrwindow=0

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Northcraft

Town Hill

Polish Mt

Martins Mt

Cumberland

Lavale to Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

33 East of Harman at the divide

OCTOBER 2023

Temps

AVG MEAN ANOMALY

AVG MAX ANOMALY

AVG MIN ANOMALY

Precip

OBSERVED

DEPARTURE

October 30, 2023

October 30, 2023October 31, 2023 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

October 30, 2023

OUTLOOK:

4:25pm 10/30/23

Colder air currently pushing in. The high ground is edging in to the upper 30s and will continue in to the 20s by Tuesday morning. Enough moisture should linger in to the early overnight for some light frozen precip of little consequence.

After a tranquil but chilly Tuesday, we await what will be the first snow for many overnight Tuesday in to Wednesday morning. This still looks on track for a 1-3″ type event above 2000-2500′ on the upslope side of the Alleghenies and leaning low to mid range on the totals. Model output below

Snowfall should taper off early to midday Wednesday with clearing skies and dying winds as we go through the day. Temps starting off the day upper teens to around 20 above 4000′, with windchills 0-10°, and temps in the 20s 2500-4000′ with windchills upper single digits to teens. So some real deal cold Wednesday morning

Winds gusting early 25-35mph across the high ground. That accompanied with temps should lead to proper preparation of outdoor water lines and other cold weather preparations.

Temps remaining below freezing for the high ground through the day Wednesday. Wednesday afternoon temps

With the skies clearing and winds dying Wednesday PM that should set up the opportunity for the coldest valleys to possibly dip upper single digits to low teens.

A moderating temp trend in to the weekend and models in agreement on another digging trough and potential snow activity as we go in to next week and beyond

12zECMWF TEMPS FOR K2G4 GARRETT COUNTY AIRPORT

12zGFS TEMPS FOR K2G4 GARRETT COUNTY AIRPORT

REVIEW OF OCTOBER 30, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Oct 30(Mon)

Cloudy, showers

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

not reporting

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml?osite=RLX&tzoff=0&layers%5B%5D=nexrad&layers%5B%5D=warnings&layers%5B%5D=cwas&layers%5B%5D=uscounties&layers%5B%5D=watches&layers%5B%5D=blank&site=RLX&tz=EST&archive=yes&year=2023&month=10&day=30&hour=23&minute=55&warngeo=both&zoom=250&imgsize=640×480&loop=1&frames=110&interval=15&filter=0&cu=0&sortcol=fcster&sortdir=DESC&lsrlook=%2B&lsrwindow=0

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Town Hill

Polish Mt

Martins Mt

Cumberland

Lavale

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

October 29, 2023

October 29, 2023October 30, 2023 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

October 29, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Oct 29(Sun)

Cloudy, some showers, fog, drizzle at times

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

not reporting

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml?osite=RLX&tzoff=0&layers%5B%5D=nexrad&layers%5B%5D=warnings&layers%5B%5D=cwas&layers%5B%5D=uscounties&layers%5B%5D=watches&layers%5B%5D=blank&site=RLX&tz=EST&archive=yes&year=2023&month=10&day=29&hour=23&minute=55&warngeo=both&zoom=250&imgsize=640×480&loop=1&frames=105&interval=15&filter=0&cu=0&sortcol=fcster&sortdir=DESC&lsrlook=%2B&lsrwindow=0

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Outlooks

Current 9:15am radar

Showers pushing across the area this morning, this will continue through Monday with Monday morning looking to be the focal point of the main period of rain. As we work through Monday the boundary begins to push through allowing colder air to filter in. If enough moisture remains overnight Monday in to Tuesday a.m, that could lead to some high ground flakes. Tuesday looks like a chilly day, but not much activity as skies may begin to break.

Rainfall through Monday off the Euro and Gfs

Tuesday night in to Wednesday, another wave of precip pushing through and this in the form of snow showers for most everyone. Accumulations looking light. 1-3″ range and leaning towards the low to mid range of that for most above 2500′ and possibly the upper end in a few favored upslope locations.

Wednesday is a cold day. Temps upper teens and low 29s above 4000′ to start with windchills 0-10. Temps remaining in the 20s all day. Winds will subside through the day. 2500-4000 temps beginning in the 20s and maxing out low to mid 30s.

Windchills teens early and moderating feel as the winds subside through the day. Skies look to begin clearing in the PM hours. As winds subside and skies clear, temps could possibly dip below 10° in those absolute coldest locations, with teens to around 20° for most.

Snowfall amounts off the Euro and GFS

Temps moderate thereafter with potentially another colder push as we go in to next week

October 28, 2023

October 28, 2023October 29, 2023 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

October 28, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Oct 28(Sat)

Cloudy, some showers, high ground fog

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

not reporting

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml?osite=RLX&tzoff=0&layers%5B%5D=nexrad&layers%5B%5D=warnings&layers%5B%5D=cwas&layers%5B%5D=uscounties&layers%5B%5D=watches&layers%5B%5D=blank&site=RLX&tz=EST&archive=yes&year=2023&month=10&day=28&hour=23&minute=55&warngeo=both&zoom=250&imgsize=640×480&loop=1&frames=90&interval=15&filter=0&cu=0&sortcol=fcster&sortdir=DESC&lsrlook=%2B&lsrwindow=0

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

OUTLOOKS:

The shower threat exist today, increases on Sunday. The primary rain focus on Sunday is north of the Mason-Dixon line and that shifts southward Monday. Rainfall amounts off the Euro and GFS are in pretty good agreement through Tuesday morning. As the colder air continues its push southward.

then the colder push continues in Tuesday night and the opportunity for some snow will increase late Tuesday night in to the day Wednesday. Currently it’s looking like a 1-3″ type threat across the High Ground. From the favored upslope zones in PA, through Garrett and in to the Wv high ground. Modeled snowfall amounts below:

0z ECMWF Snowfall for Tuesday Night-Wednesday

Early Wednesday expect temps widespread 20s, possibly upper teens above 4200′, with windchills on 20-30mph gust running single digits across the Wv high ground above 4000′ with teens elsewhere. Air temps Wednesday afternoon warm to 25-29 above 4000′, 29-33 3000-4000′, 33-37 2500-3000′.

The Gfs is a bit faster pushing the snow out Wednesday afternoon. Therefore skies clear faster, winds die off later Wednesday. If that setup occurs those coldest valley sites could drop in to the single digits. Otherwise, widespread upper teens and 20s overnight Wednesday into Thursday a.m

Tis the season….but it could be worse. 11 years ago today we were getting ready to deal with Sandy remnants beginning tomorrow.

October 27, 2023

October 27, 2023October 28, 2023 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

October 27, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Oct 27(Fri)

A.M showers, then clouds and sun

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

not reporting

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml?osite=RLX&tzoff=0&layers%5B%5D=nexrad&layers%5B%5D=warnings&layers%5B%5D=cwas&layers%5B%5D=uscounties&layers%5B%5D=watches&layers%5B%5D=blank&site=RLX&tz=EST&archive=yes&year=2023&month=10&day=27&hour=20&minute=55&warngeo=both&zoom=250&imgsize=640×480&loop=1&frames=90&interval=15&filter=0&cu=0&sortcol=fcster&sortdir=DESC&lsrlook=%2B&lsrwindow=0

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Grantsville area

Savage Mt

view to Sideling Hill

To Lavale

best color in lower elevations

Cumberland

The Narrows

By Rocky Gap

Polish Mt

Town Hill to Buck Valley

UPCOMING OUTLOOK:

Multiple rounds of rain from Saturday through Tuesday. The main periods look to be Sunday and again Monday with the cold front and colder push of air. The cold air intrusion could begin to switch liquid precip to frozen first across the Wv high ground Tuesday and lowering elevations overnight in to Wednesday.

Accumulations at this time look to be light, with 1-2″ looking possible.

Rainfall through Tuesday off the Euro and GFS

-then eyes go to the colder side, afternoon temps by Wednesday off the Euro and GFS

Modeled temps from the 12z runs for off the Euro and GFS for Garrett County

October 26, 2023

October 26, 2023October 28, 2023 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

October 26, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Oct 26(Thurs)

Frosty Valley start, mild tops, clouds, sun today and pleasant.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon-few lingering chestnut leaves

Bittinger 2nw Valley Afternoon- dull remaining oak leaves and understory beech the main lingering color

The Glades

Comparison to Garrett County Airport and the 30° temperature spreads

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

not reporting

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

no precip locally

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Foliage Maps

If anyone had followed the page here or Facebook over the years. I’ve never been a fan of fall foliage maps. 1- There is no uniform change. From dominant tree type area to area variation. Often a major lag in maps as things change much more rapidly that indicated by maps. But the map of Garrett County “Near Peak” on October 26th, is quite a far far stretch. Oak areas that are dull, and even those have mainly lost what color they had, and understory beech, few dull hickory is the primary remaining colors and those are not dominant in many areas. It’s partly why I post so many daily images. So, we haven’t reached peak yet. By the time these maps indicate peak, things should be 90% bare.