November 6, 2023

Outlooks:

post made 7:30pm 11/6/23

Nothing real exciting this week to watch. Overnight tonight the SW winds should be on the increase, that will scour out any early temp falls that have occurred in the Valley areas. Northern Canaan Valley station below freezing currently. That should pop rapidly when the winds kick in. Cloud cover and the slight shower threat in to Tuesday.

18z ECMWF as we go through the morning to midday showing the light threat

18z GFS is a bit earlier but again very light

Modeled precip amounts tomorrow

18z ECMWF precip. Very light. Mainly Cambria County and North

18z GFS lighter yet, but a bit more widespread light threat across the Alleghenies

Wednesday the Eastern Alleghenies will hold just a touch cooler the western Alleghenies. A light SE flow with a warm front pushing in West. A bit a of wedge setup. Nothing overly impressive, but enough if you’re traveling Mo-Town to Cumberland, or even Elkins to Keyser, you’ll notice the car thermometer notch down a few east or vice versa westbound.

Wednesday afternoon

Showers a bit more widespread on Thursday.

18z GFS Thursday afternoon. Not as widespread as the Euro

This is where modeling begins to vary. The GFS tries to allow cold enough air for the potential for a wave to push up Friday and catch that for the slight risk of a touch of wet snow Friday. Currently I wouldn’t buy that but it’s worth watching. The modeled 850 temps, essentially the Wv high ground are not very supportive of snow. That will Flux. So its worth watching. The second issue is will the precip push far enough north. So two very borderline ingredients that really have to come together for an unimpressive event. The Euro and most other modeling says natta

12z ECMWF Friday afternoon. Moisture south and coldest air aloft is marginal and mainly Mason Dixon and north

18z GFS. Some dynamic cooling as that slides across. Again. Worth watching as 3 of the last 4 runs have shown a scenario of some wet snow along the north edge of the precip shield trying to occur.

Review of November 6, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Nov 6(Mon)

Clear cold valley start. Some intervals of clouds and sun through the afternoon

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

not reporting

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′