November 9, 2023

OUTLOOK:

Post made 8:55am

Currently showers pushing through the area

along with a very mild punch across the high ground. Cooler air currently trapped on the east side of the mts, as shown by the RTMA(Real Time Mesoscale Analysis)

those eastern areas will warm up today, as we gradually cool back down, 3pm temps off the ECMWF below

Temps last night that began cool on areas with a bit of a wedge of cool across North Central and Eastern Garrett, especially the Valleys and points North and east. Once that cool wedge lost its hold, temps off to the races. At Bittinger 2nw Valley, temps jumped from 37 to 61 from 1:30am to 3:30am

On to the snow threat Friday

The Wv high ground should begin to see the wave if moisture pushing across early to mid morning Friday as it changes to snow. Very marginal surface temps to work with, that will limit accumulation and elevation should play a role in areas the accumulate. Models still vary on the northern precip edge. The main area of snow still looks to be focused above 3500-4000′ Canaan to Snowshoe with perhaps the bullseye in the between.

Again not a big event, but a quick hitting rapidly in and gone precip shield.

Model Precip type midday Friday

Modeled afternoon temps accompanying the precip

The tops above 4000′ likely come down to around 30-32 at the time if the precip. Below 4000′ temps unlikely to reach freezing. Making accumulation a bit slower. Also accompanied by a lack of wind and milder ground.

Modeled snowfall amounts

with some manual input

Snowfall amounts look like: (leaning low to mid range with a good performance maxing out)

4000′ and above – 1-3″ potential (including across to North Fork Mt)

3500-4000′- coating to 1.5″

3000-3500′ -coating to 1″

2500-3000′ – brief coatings if any at all. It would take a more moderate clip to get any brief stickage this low.

Review of November 9, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Nov 9(Thurs)

The warm surge pushed through last night, string winds, cloud cover that lead to mid morning to early afternoon rain. Rainfall outperforming models. Brightening through the afternoon with clouds clouds remaining.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′