November 19, 2023

Outlook:

Heading out this morning a fairly uniform chill across the area. Temps mainly mid 20s to low 30s. Some of those deeper valleys in the south east side of the Alleghenies where winds died are running a bit colder.

Cold enough for Snowshoe to have the guns on all night in to this morning

A pleasant Sunday on tap and overall a pleasant and a pleasant Monday albeit a touch chilly. Nothing bad though considering we are entering late November. The chilly, and dry air mass than in part to a high pressure skirting to our north that will influence our Tuesday as a low pressure system pushes northward.

That high pressure will help wedge some cold air back to the Alleghenies. The dry air/cold enough air will cause some evaporational cooling in addition at the precip onset as well. This should create a period of freezing rain initially over the Alleghenies and rapidly limiting itself in the classic ice zones before temps mild up enough for plain rain everywhere. Not a major winter event, but enough to create some ice on objects Tuesday. Finer details will come as we close in.

That Southeast Flow Tuesday off the ECMWF, and winds will be gusty along the ridges out of the SE.

A look at precip type Tuesday off various modeling

Initially after onset a bit more widespread in the frozen department across the Alleghenies but rapidly limiting the location Cabin Mt and east to the Allegheny Front, northward to central and northern Garrett, especially Meadow Mt, Savage Mt, Dan’s Mt and points North around and above 2000′. There could also be some patchy sleet or even wet flakes early along the Allegheny Front and even the lower elevations east, where surface temps will be above freezing there. Not the classic freezing air trapped in those deep valley setup, simply because the air mass in front is not that cold. But a case of ingredients coming together thanks to the dry air and marginally cold air with the moisture coming in to create a window for that scenario.

All a fairly brief event winter weather wise, as it all turns to rain everywhere and it’s a fairly moisture laden system. .75 to 1.5″ of moisture looks possible across the region. The old timers say the creeks need full before it can snow. Precip amounts off the models.

As we head towards Thanksgiving, it’s yet possible we get a touch of white pre Thanksgiving. Light coatings are possible, and whatever if any falls melts off Thanksgiving day. Except shady areas perhaps.

Review of November 19, 2023

Review of November 19, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Nov 19(Sun)

Cold start, sunny day, nice for heading towards late November

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

not reporting

Elkins Airport

• SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow