December 9, 2023

Outlooks:

The what: Mild and nice today a shower cant be ruled out mainly across the southern Alleghenies to mild and rainy tonight and Sunday a.m, few rumbles of thunder possible Sunday a.m and then turning colder, windy, rain to snow through the pm hours, first high Wv mts and expanding. Initially wet snow transitioning to some upslope snow overnight Sunday that will be blowing around Monday.

Uncertainties: How rapid the changeover. How much moisture is left along the western edge of the precip shield and speed of the the moisture exit. Another uncertainty and perhaps the biggest will be how this performs east of the mts with incoming colder air.

The models:

First up the 6z ECMWF

Precip type and time off the 6z ECMWF

Total precip off the 6z ECMWF below

Snowfall off the 6z ECMWF

On to the 6z GFS below

6z GFS Precip Type and timing

Total precip off the 6z GFS below

Snowfall off the 6z GFS below

Temps off the 6z Euro

Modeling has been increasing one run, decreasing the next and back. A few extra of snow on missed hours, a bit less moisture or a bit more will obviously alter the final tallies.

Currently from changeover Sunday through Monday midday when this should be wrapped up

Garrett, Preston, Somerset, Fayette, Westmoreland, Cambria this is looking like a 3-6″ type event. For Tucker, Grant, Randolph, Pendleton, Pocahontas high ground this looks like a 4-8″+ event.

Snowfall off other modeling

Then the wild card areas as you work across the high ground east of the Alleghenies. Potentially some surprises there.

Its been a while since we have had a decent rain to snow system that wasn’t strictly NW flow upslope. This event has a lot of likenesses to the “Moyer” event of 12/7/11

below is that day

Below is forecasted surface map for Sunday

below is the precip with that(very similar)

Snowfall with that event below

If numbers end up coming out something like that Monday morning would be about what is expected. But no 2 are exactly alike and let’s see where modeling goes today. If anything drastically changes a new post will be made here.

Stay tuned to your local NWS for updates, advisories.

NWS Snowfall info is included here per WFO in the drop down menu under Snowfall info

Review of December 9, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 9(Sat)

Cold valley start, sun clouds mix

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′