December 16, 2023

Outlook:

Temps this afternoon pleasantly in to the 40s as seen above, but as seen below dewpoints remain low

The dry air, light winds making a nice day on area slopes. The temperature impact is very minimal to the snow base with the low dewpoints and light winds. That changes some tomorrow. As we will see a low coming up the coast that’s seen on the current surface map and radar.

Another upcoming rain to snow scenario. First low strengthening up the coast Sunday in to Monday with wrap around NW flow upslope snows Monday in to Tuesday. Accompanied by strong gusty winds creating blowing and drifting.

A look at the 12zECMWF

Modeling has been back and forth on the western edge rainfall tallies from the first part of the system. The ECMWF(Euro) has been more consistent with the heavier rains staying east of the Alleghenies, and the 12z GFS trended that way on the latest 12z run as well. So, that’s something to watch as we go through tomorrow in to early Monday. Will the heaviest rains end up staying east as modeling suggest.

Below is the 12z ECMWF

Below is the 12z GFS

Below is the 12z Canadian

That’s now some pretty good agreement. So, if it holds, really a non impressive rainfall totals for the Alleghenies on the first part of the event. A shift 50 miles west and rainfall tallies would greatly increase. As it stands modeling is in the .35 to .75 range. Again, something to keep a eye on tomorrow.

As the precip begins Sunday, worth noting it’s not completely out of the question along the Allegheny Front could initially see a brief touch of frozen precip. Low percentage chance. Mainly a cold rain.

As we go in to Monday, temps will slowly backslide through the day. Rain to snow early morning Monday for the WV High ground and that changeover will advance north through the morning.

A look at temps off the 12z ECMWF

Now to snowfall and the main aspect of what anyone cares about. This is a wrap around upslope event so west is best.

Some early thoughts on tallies and the NWS snowfall maps look really good too.

7Springs 5-8″

Somerset 2-5″

Mt.Davis 4-7″

Bittinger 4-7″

Grantsville 3-6″

Savage Mt 2-5″

Frostburg 1-3″

Mchenry 4-7″

Cranesville 5-8″

Aurora 5-8″

Davis 6-10″

Canaan Valley 6-10″

Spruce Knob 5-8″

Elkins 3-6″

Snowshoe 6-10″

Any streamers or squalls can alter tallies. Going with the general climatological uoslope setup for the type of event, ratios-liquid output to snow.

The Models

12Z ECMWF Below

12Z GFS Below

12z Canadian Below

….again pretty good agreement there in modeling. Some modeling physics do not project the actual heaviest snow over the area it occurs and holds it too far west. A lot of times you’ll see this on local TV predictors that will show Parsons with higher model outputs vs Canaan, etc etc. Thats a model physics flaw

Again the NWS in pretty good agreement. Stay tuned for their updates and warnings and advisories as well as we go through the upcoming 36-60 hours.

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter Check out Sterlings products here for the counties they cover

Through 7am Tuesday, snow should continue beyond 7am

Pittsburghs products for their counties below

https://www.weather.gov/pbz/winter

Charleston products here for their counties

https://www.weather.gov/rlx/winter

State College products here for their counties:

https://www.weather.gov/ctp/winter

Review of December 16, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 16(Sat)

Cold valley start, sun with thin clouds pm

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′