December 17, 2023

Outlook:

post made 7:00am

Rainfall pushing northward this morning.

Any light moisture reaching along and east of the Eastern Continental divide this morning may briefly begin as frozen precip. How come?

Temps are below freezing at

That includes areas above 4000′

The 3km Nam modeled this well the 3km Nam sucks on precip, but superb on temps, especially with a east flow

A look towards Spruce Knob early morning as clouds roll in from the east

Any below freezing areas will creep above freezing early morning and remain there in to Monday morning. Allowing for only liquid to fall before the changeover to upslope snows across the high ground. Models have held on lighter precip totals across the Alleghenies through the changeover to NW flow upslope. Total rainfall off the modeling

6z GFS below

-6z ECMWF below

So rainfall is not looking all that impressive. A shift west, again would increase those numbers and as always, localized amounts can always beat the models.

Timing the rain and changeover off the 6z GFS below

My thoughts on snowfall tallies below

7Springs 5-8″Somerset 2-5″Mt.Davis 4-7″Bittinger 4-7″Grantsville 3-6″Savage Mt 2-5″Frostburg 1-3″Mchenry 4-7″Cranesville 5-8″Aurora 5-8″Davis 6-10″Canaan Valley 6-10″Spruce Knob 5-8″Elkins 3-6″Snowshoe 6-10″. As always there will be winners and losers.

Modeling output:

6z GFS

6z ECMWF below

NWS OUTLOOKS

watches

Snowfall outlooks

Sterling below

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter

Pittsburgh below

https://www.weather.gov/pbz/winter

Charleston below

https://www.weather.gov/rlx/winter

State College below

https://www.weather.gov/ctp/winter

Also to note is temps falling through Monday pm, accompanied by gusty winds overnight Monday in to Tuesday. Windchills across the WV high ground either side of 0, and 5-15 elsewhere, with blowing and drifting. Air temps teens Wv high ground, 20s elsewhere.

Review of December 17, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 17(Sun)

Cloudy, high ground fog, light rain, drizzle

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′