December 21, 2023

December 21, 2023December 22, 2023 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

December 21, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 21(Thurs)

Lots of clouds after a clear night. More in the way of sun as you went south

Bittinger 2nw Valley

dyacon data below

Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon “Fridge Spot”

Bittinger 2nw Valley evening experimental spot

The Glades

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Whitegrass cam Cabin Mt(not Bald Knob exactly)

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Town Hill

Green Ridge

Polish Mt

Martins Mt

Cumberland

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

Oakland area

By Swallow Falls

Cranesville

December 20, 2023

December 20, 2023December 21, 2023 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

December 20, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 20(Wed)

Cold start, valleys colder. Sun and clouds today.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon Data below

Experimental “Fridge Spot” Below

Bittinger 2nw Valley morning experimental spot

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Cranesville

Grantsville to Savage Mt

Frostburg

Lavale area

Martins Mt

Town Hill

Webcams

December 19, 2023

December 19, 2023December 20, 2023 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

December 19, 2023

Quick Review and Outlook:

As the system departs, we are left this morning with lingering light upslope snow.

This will drop additional light accumulations in areas as it breaks apart towards midday.

The early morning snowfall roundup map for snow that has fell in the past 24 hours looks like

Some localized amounts will exceed or be under what is viewed. As the case with every system of winners and losers and especially so with this and what was initially a squally setup, that will provide winners and losers on snowfall amounts of either high or low. If you were under a squall or repeated squalls last evening, you ended up a few inches higher than areas miles away that missed out. Those squalls and streamers can beat the west is best upslope setup as well for localized eastern locals. But in the overall scheme, west is best and was best with the setup.

Canaan Heights 10″, Canaan Valley Coop 9.5″, 7Springs 6″, Wisp 4″, some 5, 6″ reports towards Grantsville. 4.5″ Bittinger, Snowshoe reports 6″, but that appears low based on pictures. Areas north of Terra Alta reporting 6″. In the overall general picture numbers came in pretty much as modeling had, with some exceptions in localized areas on the east side.

currently here before 11am we have temps mid teens Wv high ground to lower 20s elsewhere

Resorts all looking good

Snowshoe below

Canaan below

Timberline below

Wisp below

7Springs Below

Whitegrass below

Upcoming tranquil and slightly milder temps will not be a big impact to area resorts. For the most temps will run 35-44 across the area through the weekend. The key is, it’s accompanied by low dewpoints and light winds through Friday (huge factor vs the same temps with higher dewpoints and wind) and the shortest days and lowest sun angle of the year. Modeling often will model a touch too warm with snow cover and a low sun angle and short period of diurnal warmth than reality will have it.. Winter activities should run well this week despite the quiet and slightly milder, but comfortable conditions. Not harsh, no big meltdown, no big precip events. A outside chance of a shower or high elevation flake Saturday and weekend dewpoints creep up making things a touch stickier.

Next week potential for wet to white, but it will not surprise me to see things trend cooler next week. We are not battling a big SE ridge like in recent years

Review of December 19, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 19(Tues)

On and off light snow today after areas of squalls and moderate upslope overnight with blowing and drifting

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon Data below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml?osite=RLX&tzoff=0&layers%5B%5D=nexrad&layers%5B%5D=warnings&layers%5B%5D=cwas&layers%5B%5D=uscounties&layers%5B%5D=watches&layers%5B%5D=blank&site=RLX&tz=EST&archive=yes&year=2023&month=12&day=19&hour=20&minute=55&warngeo=both&zoom=250&imgsize=640×480&loop=1&frames=90&interval=15&filter=0&cu=0&sortcol=fcster&sortdir=DESC&lsrlook=%2B&lsrwindow=0

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Oakland area

Webcams

December 18, 2023

December 18, 2023December 19, 2023 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

December 18, 2023

Outlooks:

post made 7:30am

Winter Storm Warnings out across the high ground

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=RLX&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning click for details

NWS SNOWFALL MAPS

Sterling

Pittsburgh below

Charleston below

State College below

7am temps and falling and will be below these tallies as you read this

Radar

that wrap around already starting to show up. Now as we go through the event, not all of the upslope will be picked up by radar. As the radar beam gets to parts of the Alleghenies, it will overshoot the precip level.

Modeled maps

below is the 07z model blend map

6z GFS below

below is the 6z ECMWF

Poor travel overnight and Tuesday morning, with strong gusty winds, areas of steady snow and blowing snow also accompanied by squalls and streamers..Areas under any repeated squalls or lengthy streamers will obviously end up running with the higher tallies for the event. With every event, there are areas that stray from forecasted tallies one way or the other

Review of December 18, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 18(Mon)

Cloudy, a.m rain to flakes, touch of freezing drizzle and areas of snow showers, squalls. Not widespread

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon below-

Experimental “Fridge Spot” Below

Bittinger 2nw Valley morning, trace of snow left. Non drifted

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

cam iced over

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Garrett Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml?osite=RLX&tzoff=0&layers%5B%5D=nexrad&layers%5B%5D=warnings&layers%5B%5D=cwas&layers%5B%5D=uscounties&layers%5B%5D=watches&layers%5B%5D=blank&site=RLX&tz=EST&archive=yes&year=2023&month=12&day=18&hour=23&minute=55&warngeo=both&zoom=250&imgsize=640×480&loop=1&frames=90&interval=15&filter=0&cu=0&sortcol=fcster&sortdir=DESC&lsrlook=%2B&lsrwindow=0

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Sideling Hill Creek to Town Hill

Polish Mt

Martin’s Mt to Rocky Gap

Cumberland to Lavale

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

Oakland area

Hammel Glade

To Cranesville

Webcams

December 17, 2023

December 17, 2023December 18, 2023 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

December 17, 2023

Outlook:

post made 7:00am

Rainfall pushing northward this morning.

Any light moisture reaching along and east of the Eastern Continental divide this morning may briefly begin as frozen precip. How come?

Temps are below freezing at

That includes areas above 4000′

The 3km Nam modeled this well the 3km Nam sucks on precip, but superb on temps, especially with a east flow

A look towards Spruce Knob early morning as clouds roll in from the east

Any below freezing areas will creep above freezing early morning and remain there in to Monday morning. Allowing for only liquid to fall before the changeover to upslope snows across the high ground. Models have held on lighter precip totals across the Alleghenies through the changeover to NW flow upslope. Total rainfall off the modeling

6z GFS below

-6z ECMWF below

So rainfall is not looking all that impressive. A shift west, again would increase those numbers and as always, localized amounts can always beat the models.

Timing the rain and changeover off the 6z GFS below

My thoughts on snowfall tallies below

7Springs 5-8″Somerset 2-5″Mt.Davis 4-7″Bittinger 4-7″Grantsville 3-6″Savage Mt 2-5″Frostburg 1-3″Mchenry 4-7″Cranesville 5-8″Aurora 5-8″Davis 6-10″Canaan Valley 6-10″Spruce Knob 5-8″Elkins 3-6″Snowshoe 6-10″. As always there will be winners and losers.

Modeling output:

6z GFS

6z ECMWF below

NWS OUTLOOKS

watches

Snowfall outlooks

Sterling below

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter

Pittsburgh below

https://www.weather.gov/pbz/winter

Charleston below

https://www.weather.gov/rlx/winter

State College below

https://www.weather.gov/ctp/winter

Also to note is temps falling through Monday pm, accompanied by gusty winds overnight Monday in to Tuesday. Windchills across the WV high ground either side of 0, and 5-15 elsewhere, with blowing and drifting. Air temps teens Wv high ground, 20s elsewhere.

Review of December 17, 2023

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Dec 17(Sun)

Cloudy, high ground fog, light rain, drizzle

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Garrett County Airport

https://viewer.synopticdata.com/graph/now/1500/PMN16,DY008;air_temp

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml?osite=RLX&tzoff=0&layers%5B%5D=nexrad&layers%5B%5D=warnings&layers%5B%5D=cwas&layers%5B%5D=uscounties&layers%5B%5D=watches&layers%5B%5D=blank&site=RLX&tz=EST&archive=yes&year=2023&month=12&day=17&hour=23&minute=55&warngeo=both&zoom=250&imgsize=640×480&loop=1&frames=90&interval=15&filter=0&cu=0&sortcol=fcster&sortdir=DESC&lsrlook=%2B&lsrwindow=0

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Webcams

December 16, 2023

December 16, 2023December 17, 2023 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

December 16, 2023

Outlook:

Temps this afternoon pleasantly in to the 40s as seen above, but as seen below dewpoints remain low

The dry air, light winds making a nice day on area slopes. The temperature impact is very minimal to the snow base with the low dewpoints and light winds. That changes some tomorrow. As we will see a low coming up the coast that’s seen on the current surface map and radar.

Another upcoming rain to snow scenario. First low strengthening up the coast Sunday in to Monday with wrap around NW flow upslope snows Monday in to Tuesday. Accompanied by strong gusty winds creating blowing and drifting.

A look at the 12zECMWF

Modeling has been back and forth on the western edge rainfall tallies from the first part of the system. The ECMWF(Euro) has been more consistent with the heavier rains staying east of the Alleghenies, and the 12z GFS trended that way on the latest 12z run as well. So, that’s something to watch as we go through tomorrow in to early Monday. Will the heaviest rains end up staying east as modeling suggest.

Below is the 12z ECMWF

Below is the 12z GFS

Below is the 12z Canadian

That’s now some pretty good agreement. So, if it holds, really a non impressive rainfall totals for the Alleghenies on the first part of the event. A shift 50 miles west and rainfall tallies would greatly increase. As it stands modeling is in the .35 to .75 range. Again, something to keep a eye on tomorrow.

As the precip begins Sunday, worth noting it’s not completely out of the question along the Allegheny Front could initially see a brief touch of frozen precip. Low percentage chance. Mainly a cold rain.

As we go in to Monday, temps will slowly backslide through the day. Rain to snow early morning Monday for the WV High ground and that changeover will advance north through the morning.

A look at temps off the 12z ECMWF

Now to snowfall and the main aspect of what anyone cares about. This is a wrap around upslope event so west is best.

Some early thoughts on tallies and the NWS snowfall maps look really good too.

7Springs 5-8″

Somerset 2-5″

Mt.Davis 4-7″

Bittinger 4-7″

Grantsville 3-6″

Savage Mt 2-5″

Frostburg 1-3″

Mchenry 4-7″

Cranesville 5-8″

Aurora 5-8″

Davis 6-10″

Canaan Valley 6-10″

Spruce Knob 5-8″

Elkins 3-6″

Snowshoe 6-10″

Any streamers or squalls can alter tallies. Going with the general climatological uoslope setup for the type of event, ratios-liquid output to snow.

The Models

12Z ECMWF Below

12Z GFS Below

12z Canadian Below

….again pretty good agreement there in modeling. Some modeling physics do not project the actual heaviest snow over the area it occurs and holds it too far west. A lot of times you’ll see this on local TV predictors that will show Parsons with higher model outputs vs Canaan, etc etc. Thats a model physics flaw

Again the NWS in pretty good agreement. Stay tuned for their updates and warnings and advisories as well as we go through the upcoming 36-60 hours.

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter Check out Sterlings products here for the counties they cover