Snow last night, some lingering this morning, mostly cloudy with a few brief blue breaks in the a.m.
Bittinger 2nw Valley
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dyacon data below
Foxtown Rd morning West of Bittinger morning Near Bittinger 2nw morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Up from Bittinger 2nw Valley morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Foxtown Rd morningRock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Foxtown Rd afternoon Near Bittinger 2nw afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Towards Bowman Hill afternoon
Garrett County Airport
Meadow Mt at Deep Creek State Park Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morning
Top of Wisp
–
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Station
Atop Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
–
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
SITE COMPARISON
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
Winter Storm Warnings out for the high Wv elevations in the pink shade and Winter Weather Advisories out in the purple shade. These likely will expand in to parts of the southern Pa high elevations and some of the Winter Weather Advisories potentially will creep in to Warning criteria.
My thoughts from yesterday really haven’t changed much. A general 4-8″ with localized higher pops across the high Wv elevations 3500’+ and 3-6″ with localized higher pops 2500-3500′. 2000-2500 2-4″ .
A look at the 0z ECMWF for the event
Snowfall off the models
6z ECMWF6z GFS above 0z Canadian aboveShort Range Canadian RDPS above. The Canadian RGEM is better than the horrid US Nam for precip. NWS WFO outlook above
This is mainly a Sunday PM to Monday AM event. Expect road conditions across the high ground to deteriorate rapidly. If you have traveling across the high ground to do and you can work it in this morning to afternoon hours, that’s best.
The morning temps starting off in the 40s and lows 50s
and by evening those are crashing back to and below freezing. Modeled 7pm temps
modeled midnight
modeled 6am Monday
Temps won’t move a lot Monday as some upslope snows continue in the morning hours across the high ground. This will be accompanied by strong winds blowing the snow around. Initially a wet snow that will transition to a bit more powder as time goes on overnight.
Yesterday I referred to a similar rain to snow setup on Dec 7, 2011 that ended with these type of amounts. Similar numbers could be expected with this. Refer to yesterday’s post by clicking back a day at the bottom of the post
Nws advisories and snowfall maps can be viewed in the drop down menu under snowfall info per Weather Forecast Office.
Review of December 10, 2023
Review of December 10, 2023
Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21
Dec 10(Sun)
Rainy, cloudy, high ground fog, drizzle, changing to snow late day, early evening
Bittinger 2nw Valley
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley evening around changeover to snow(obviously not visible In pic)
Garrett County Airport
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
(Daybreak being the 11th)
Climate Reference Network Station
Atop Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
not reporting
Elkins Airport
SITE COMPARISON
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The what: Mild and nice today a shower cant be ruled out mainly across the southern Alleghenies to mild and rainy tonight and Sunday a.m, few rumbles of thunder possible Sunday a.m and then turning colder, windy, rain to snow through the pm hours, first high Wv mts and expanding. Initially wet snow transitioning to some upslope snow overnight Sunday that will be blowing around Monday.
Uncertainties: How rapid the changeover. How much moisture is left along the western edge of the precip shield and speed of the the moisture exit. Another uncertainty and perhaps the biggest will be how this performs east of the mts with incoming colder air.
The models:
First up the 6z ECMWF
Precip type and time off the 6z ECMWF
Total precip off the 6z ECMWF below
6z ECMWF Total Precip
Snowfall off the 6z ECMWF
6z ECMWF snowfall
On to the 6z GFS below
6z GFS Precip Type and timing
Total precip off the 6z GFS below
6z Total Precip
Snowfall off the 6z GFS below
6z GFS snowfall
Temps off the 6z Euro
Modeling has been increasing one run, decreasing the next and back. A few extra of snow on missed hours, a bit less moisture or a bit more will obviously alter the final tallies.
Currently from changeover Sunday through Monday midday when this should be wrapped up
Garrett, Preston, Somerset, Fayette, Westmoreland, Cambria this is looking like a 3-6″ type event. For Tucker, Grant, Randolph, Pendleton, Pocahontas high ground this looks like a 4-8″+ event.
Snowfall off other modeling
0z Canadian0z RDPS(short range Canadian)
Then the wild card areas as you work across the high ground east of the Alleghenies. Potentially some surprises there.
Its been a while since we have had a decent rain to snow system that wasn’t strictly NW flow upslope. This event has a lot of likenesses to the “Moyer” event of 12/7/11
below is that day
12/7/11
Below is forecasted surface map for Sunday
below is the precip with that(very similar)
Snowfall with that event below
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If numbers end up coming out something like that Monday morning would be about what is expected. But no 2 are exactly alike and let’s see where modeling goes today. If anything drastically changes a new post will be made here.
Stay tuned to your local NWS for updates, advisories.
NWS Snowfall info is included here per WFO in the drop down menu under Snowfall info
Review of December 9, 2023
Review of December 9, 2023
Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21
Dec 9(Sat)
Cold valley start, sun clouds mix
Bittinger 2nw Valley
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley evening
Garrett County Airport
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Station
Atop Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
SITE COMPARISON
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
–Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Foxtown Rd morning Foxtown Rd morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd morning Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Garrett County Airport
Rock Lodge Rd morning Rock Lodge Rd morning Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morning
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts BP
Climate Reference Network Station
–
Atop Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
–
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
SITE COMPARISON
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
void
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Dung Hill Rd morning Towards Bowman Hill morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Experimental Spot Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Up from Bittinger 2nw Valley morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morningFoxtown Rd morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon “Fridge Spot”Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley evening
Garrett County Airport
Rock Lodge Rd morning Deep Creek Lake morning
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am mmts Coop BP
Climate Reference Network Station
Atop Canaan Ski area
–
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
–
Spruce Knob
–
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
SITE COMPARISON
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
void
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Snow last night, some light snow today, cloudy,breezy at times
Bittinger 2nw Valley
Dyacon data below
–
Experimental “Fridge Spot” Below. The main impacts of this locations occurs with snowpack which currently doesn’t exist
West of Bittinger morning Near Bittinger 2nw morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Experimental Spot Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Up from Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Near Old Cherry Glade Church morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Foxtown Rd morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Foxtown Rd afternoon Near Bittinger 2nw morning Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Garrett County Airport
Mchenry morning By Garrett College morning Rock Lodge Rd morning State Park Rd morning State Park Rd morning Meadow Mt at Deep Creek State Park Carmel Cove morning Carmel Cove morning Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morning
Top of Wisp
Afternoon
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am mmts BP
Climate Reference Network Station
Atop Canaan Ski area
–
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
–
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt Davis
Snowshoe
––
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
SITE COMPARISON
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
Cloudy, flakes breaking out later in the morning. Steady snow towards evening
Bittinger 2nw Valley
Dyacon data below
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley evening Bittinger 2nw Valley eveningBittinger 2nw Valley evening Up from Bittinger 2nw Valley evening West of Bittinger evening West of Bittinger evening
Garrett County Airport
Deep Creek Lake morning
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights
7am to 7am data mmts BP
Climate Reference Network Station
Atop Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
–
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
–––
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
SITE COMPARISON
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
Clouds and filtered sun at times. Colder, but still not bad at all for December
Bittinger 2nw Valley
-dyacon data below
– Experimental Spot
This site typically is a bit colder mins
-Fridge spot below- this site is protected low, shaded and holds cold well with a snowpack. Without a snowpack there isn’t a great deal of difference
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning West of Bittinger afternoon Near Bittinger 2nw afternoon Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon
Garrett County Airport
Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morning
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data MMTS BP
Climate Reference Network Station
Atop Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
SITE COMPARISON
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
A mild start to Sunday morning. Temps mainly 40s all across the high ground and 50s in the lower elevations
Showers are a bit more scattered and less widespread vs the overnight hours
Showers, drizzle continue today and colder air begins to filter in later today. By Monday a.m, temps should range upper 20s in the Wv high ground to low to mid 30s elsewhere
Temps holding steady Monday, by Monday afternoon mid and upper 30s should be the theme under a mostly dry theme.
Tuesday morning a similar temp setup, with a few additional degrees knocked off and slightly drier air. This should allow for the higher WV resorts to recrank the snow guns. A touch of very light natural snow may be present in areas Tuesday a.m as well.
Tuesday afternoon, temps only rising several degrees off the morning lows
Those temps hold steady right towards dawn on Wednesday with some periods of snow from late Tuesday, then a lull, and then additional snow on Wednesday. The initial snow comes with temps near freezing in many areas. Areas below 2500-3000′ will be the threshold near freezing with that. By Wednesday am temps near and below freezing across the highground
With snow around at varying rates on Wednesday, temps hold steady across the high ground through the day
A look at the 6 hourly precip off the 6z ECMWF as we go through the period
Snowfall amounts off the modeling
6z ECMWF 6z GFS0z Canadian6z Nam
Overall modeling a few days out in pretty good agreement on the setup. For most this looks like a 1-3″ type event. With favored upslope areas looking at 2-5″, with some isolated areas of 5″+. Additional tweaks to those thoughts may yet occur over the next 48 hours.
Review of December 3, 2023
Review of December 3, 2023
Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21
Dec 3(Sun)
Rainy, Cloudy, brief bright periods, areas of storms, hail, wind pm
Bittinger 2nw Valley
Mmts/loggerDyaconBittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley early afternoon ahead of more rains, hail
Garrett County Airport
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Station
Atop Canaan Ski area
–
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
–
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt Davis
Snowshoe
––
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
SITE COMPARISON
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
Periods of rainfall overnight and showers on and off through Sunday. Overall rainfall amounts look like .3 to .6 through Sunday pm. Colder air pushing in Sunday Night and Monday with limited moisture left available.
As we go through Tuesday the next wave of precip begins working in during the pm hours in the form of snow across the higher elevations. Periods of snow Tuesday night in to Wednesday. Accumulations are looking likely. Mainly in the order of 1-3″, with favored upslope zones 2-5″ totals by Wednesday pm with potential isolated pockets of 5″+. The initial accumulation from Tuesday pm past midnight may struggle below 3000′ with marginal temps. Temps continue to fall in to Wednesday a.m at daybreak and hold steady through the day with continued snow showers.
Updated post on that in the coming days. Nothing huge but Wednesday a.m travel across the high ground may have some issues.
Review of December 2, 2023
Review of December 2, 2023
Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21
Dec 2(Sat)
Showers last night, mild breezy. Overcast with peaks of sun today and mild for early December.
Bittinger 2nw Valley
-Dyacon data, will continue to post mmts/logger data +precip/snowfall
Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning Bittinger 2nw Valley morning
Garrett County Airport
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data MMTS BP
Climate Reference Network Station
Atop Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
-opening preview weekend at Timberline
–
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
–
Snowshoe
-opening day
–
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
SITE COMPARISON
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
Allegheny Mountains Weather 