January 5, 2024

Outlook:

Saturday storm thoughts, Sunday upslope.

Saturdays storm system still has plenty of variabilities.

1-Speed

2- QPF-liquid output(includes frozen precip)

3- Mixing potential

• Model variation

The 6z GFS

Precip pushing in Saturday. The GFS typically is a touch too mild on these setups and may be a bit overdone on the mix zone. The focus for the best snow should run from the Allegheny Front to Sideling Hill and north-northeast. A 4-8″ zone. With the precip moving in rapidly, the main brunt of the precip in a 5-8 hour period, once it breaks out and precip rates hold up, mixing should be limited and a primarily a snow event would occur. Lighter rates allow for some sleet to occur in areas.

6z Gfs snowfall output

The 6z Euro

The 6z ECMWF snowfall amounts below and this op run of the ECMWF was a bit low on overall moisture I suspect a slight uptick on 12z

My thoughts for part 1, leaning low to mid range with a good performer grabbing the top end

Some tricky areas that potentially could beat models and these thoughts, may be around Morgantown. You break at snow at a heavier rate, the main part of the system can hold snow longer. So if you get heavier rates going, albeit short lived, it’s enough, fast enough to cause very poor travel. So the expected low zones still can have poor travel with initial heavy rates. Something to watch for, not a lock to occur 

The NWS amounts for Part 1

NWS warnings,watches,advisories

Stay tuned to your local NWS updates through today and Saturday morning as the system continues to evolve and details are honed in. The NWS updated snowfall amounts are linked in the drop-down menu on this page under snowfall info. Those maps may now include snowfall in to part 2.

Between parts 1 and 2(the upslope feature) some light freezing drizzle may occur widespread over the high ground. 

Part 2

Quick thoughts on part 2, the upslope part, this would be Sunday into very early Monday a.m hours. Leaning low to mid range with a good performer grabbing the top end 

After this passes, we watch the Next system Tuesday-Wednesday.

 That’s a snow to sleet, freezing rain to rain and backend wrap around snow. The initial snow brunt potential again is greatest up the eastern Alleghenies, with a mix encroaching southwest to north east. The backend snows at the moment with this look a bit limited as the system pulls northeast. Even with that, the Allegheny equalizer is in play, the east does best initially, west is best with the backsides.

More updates as we get closer to both events and as always, stay tuned to your local NWS on social media, their websites.