January 12, 2024

Outlooks:

Big story will be wind, Southeast winds, the easterly component is big in keeping the high ground in the chill and parts of the central and Eastern Allegheny high ground in play for a bit of wintry precip to start this evening.

First the winds-

High Wind Warnings out

Initially the strong southeast winds today, a lull in the winds early overnight just ahead of the cold front and the southwest winds kicks in after midnight ramping up through Saturday morning. Essentially the same type of wind setup as a couple days ago.

The HRRR wind gust, direction. Often a bit overdone on gust mph, but a good illustration how the winds and direction plays out ahead and behind the front.

The current surface map shows the cause of the wind direction. Clockwise around the High, Counter clockwise around the low

The does allow for some drier air on place initially on the east side as that low shoots towards the lakes. As our temps creep in to the mid to upper 30s

That is accompanied by lower dewpoints in the mid and lower levels

When you have the temp/dewpoint spread, as you work moisture in you do get some evaporative cooling so numbers creep back down initially as moisture works in and begins to saturate the air mass.

The HRRR illustrates this

As moisture moves in, it allows for some wet snow a wintry mix across parts of the high ground initially

The as the system pull ls closer and north, we lose the SE wind component, the air mass is saturated and we briefly pull in some slightly milder moist air and some plain rain resumes in all areas, including those that had the initial snow or mix

The HRRR snow zone potential

Again it’s erratic at times and overdone on amounts, but the other day it sure hit on location of the highest totals much better than other modeling. Again the initial wintry side looks to only be a several hour potential.

As we work through the night some upslope snows try to kick in, in a less favorable SW wind direction and may add up to a few inches through Saturday. Amounts look unimpressive, but whatever does fall will be blowing clean off the hardpack snow surface. Just a inch or 2 will reduce visibility as it blows Saturday on the strong westerly winds

Temps fall through Saturday morning and the threat of snow showers continue but looks much more scattered than it did a few days ago. Eyes then go to next week with the potential of some high ratio fluff Tuesday. Models vary greatly on this. The extreme cold is on the table but a touch less extreme than it was shown the other day. Tuesday in to Wednesday now appears the coldest. Whether it’s -5 or +5, still plenty cold and preps needed.

Review of January 12, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Jan 12(Fri)

Red sky sunrise, clouds with some dim sun, thickening through the day. Late day/evening snow/sleet/rain

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below-

Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon.SE wind drifting despite mid 30s and very little loose snow to blow

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′