January 12, 2024

Outlooks:

Big story will be wind, Southeast winds, the easterly component is big in keeping the high ground in the chill and parts of the central and Eastern Allegheny high ground in play for a bit of wintry precip to start this evening.

First the winds-

High Wind Warnings out

Initially the strong southeast winds today, a lull in the winds early overnight just ahead of the cold front and the southwest winds kicks in after midnight ramping up through Saturday morning. Essentially the same type of wind setup as a couple days ago.

The HRRR wind gust, direction. Often a bit overdone on gust mph, but a good illustration how the winds and direction plays out ahead and behind the front.

The current surface map shows the cause of the wind direction. Clockwise around the High, Counter clockwise around the low 

The does allow for some drier air on place initially on the east side as that low shoots towards the lakes. As our temps creep in to the mid to upper 30s

That is accompanied by lower dewpoints in the mid and lower levels

When you have the temp/dewpoint spread, as you work moisture in you do get some evaporative cooling so numbers creep back down initially as moisture works in and begins to saturate the air mass.

The HRRR illustrates this

As moisture moves in, it allows for some wet snow a wintry mix across parts of the high ground initially

The as the system pull ls closer and north, we lose the SE wind component, the air mass is saturated and we briefly pull in some slightly milder moist air and some plain rain resumes in all areas, including those that had the initial snow or mix 

The HRRR snow zone potential

Again it’s erratic at times and overdone on amounts, but the other day it sure hit on location of the highest totals much better than other modeling. Again the initial wintry side looks to only be a several hour potential.

As we work through the night some upslope snows try to kick in, in a less favorable SW wind direction and may add up to a few inches through Saturday. Amounts look unimpressive, but whatever does fall will be blowing clean off the hardpack snow surface. Just a inch or 2 will reduce visibility as it blows Saturday on the strong westerly winds 

Temps fall through Saturday morning and the threat of snow showers continue but looks much more scattered than it did a few days ago. Eyes then go to next week with the potential of some high ratio fluff Tuesday. Models vary greatly on this. The extreme cold is on the table but a touch less extreme than it was shown the other day. Tuesday in to Wednesday now appears the coldest. Whether it’s -5 or +5, still plenty cold and preps needed.

Review of January 12, 2024

Review of January 12, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Jan 12(Fri)

 Red sky sunrise, clouds with some dim sun, thickening through the day. Late day/evening snow/sleet/rain

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below-

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml?osite=RLX&tzoff=0&layers%5B%5D=nexrad&layers%5B%5D=warnings&layers%5B%5D=cwas&layers%5B%5D=uscounties&layers%5B%5D=watches&layers%5B%5D=blank&site=RLX&tz=EST&archive=yes&year=2024&month=1&day=12&hour=23&minute=55&warngeo=both&zoom=250&imgsize=640×480&loop=1&frames=90&interval=15&filter=0&cu=0&sortcol=fcster&sortdir=DESC&lsrlook=%2B&lsrwindow=0

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Town Hill

Polish Mt

Martins Mt

Cumberland to Lavale

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

Cranesville

Sang Run

Webcams

January 11, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Jan 11(Thurs)

 Lots of sun, few clouds, breezy

Bittinger 2nw Valley

dyacon data below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Cranesville

Grantsville to Savage Mt

Frostburg

Lavale to Cumberland

Martins Mt

Polish Mt

Town Hill

January 10, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Jan 10(Wed)

 Periods of light snow, some fine snow extremely windy. Power outages

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml?osite=RLX&tzoff=0&layers%5B%5D=nexrad&layers%5B%5D=warnings&layers%5B%5D=cwas&layers%5B%5D=uscounties&layers%5B%5D=watches&layers%5B%5D=blank&site=RLX&tz=EST&archive=yes&year=2024&month=1&day=10&hour=23&minute=55&warngeo=both&zoom=250&imgsize=640×480&loop=1&frames=90&interval=15&filter=0&cu=0&sortcol=fcster&sortdir=DESC&lsrlook=%2B&lsrwindow=0

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Oakland area

Cranesville

January 9, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Jan 9(Tues)

 A wide range today from

• Heavy snow from hours before daylight to late morning midday
• areas of sleet
• freezing rain
• rain
• wind

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below-

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml?osite=RLX&tzoff=0&layers%5B%5D=nexrad&layers%5B%5D=warnings&layers%5B%5D=cwas&layers%5B%5D=uscounties&layers%5B%5D=watches&layers%5B%5D=blank&site=RLX&tz=EST&archive=yes&year=2024&month=1&day=9&hour=23&minute=55&warngeo=both&zoom=250&imgsize=640×480&loop=1&frames=110&interval=15&filter=0&cu=0&sortcol=fcster&sortdir=DESC&lsrlook=%2B&lsrwindow=0

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Webcams

-Lots of highways and roads shut down with the snowfall rates this morning 1-2″ per hours over 7 hours Frostburg coop in at 14.3.

January 8, 2024

Outlook:

 The incoming “slop” system, that will begin wintry for some had raised some winter weather advisories I’m these area highlighted below

The NWS Snowfall outlooks for Tuesday morning

From Sterling:

From Pittsburgh

From State College

From Charleston

The snow aspect of the event is not long lived. Quick initial thump and the vertical temp profile gradually warms aloft and to the surface.

 Right along the west edge of those expected better early snow accumulations should be a sleet zone, and some areas of freezing rain before the Tuesday pm features plain rain. The Blue Knob and those higher eastern Allegheny PA areas should hold on to the wintry aspect the longest. As the midday model runs illustrate 

A quick look at the 12z ECMWF

The next story looks to be the strong southeast winds. Those come over the Alleghenies and downslope west has a good potential to cause some power outages.

Wind gust in excess of 50+mph possible. Wind Advisories and High Wind Warnings in play.

A look on the models at the winds, and wind direction. Winds from the southeast Tuesday then often right ahead of the wind direction flip there is some lull, but don’t let your guard down as Wednesday a.m will feature strong SW winds and in this case those are ushering back the colder air 

A look at the 12z HRRR winds from the Ventusky website. Advancing every several hours.

Temps tomorrow on those SE winds hold cold through the a.m hours in those typical wedge areas in the over running events. Eventually enough moist, and just mild enough air works in to flip things to plain rain area wide.

Temps off the 12z HRRR, graphics off the Weatherbell website

All told this system has plenty of moisture. 1-2″ of total liquid and in some areas upwards .75 to a inch could be in the frozen form. Then plenty of moisture remains to fall on that. Areas that are primarily all rain stand a chance at some localized creek flooding, and high water likely across the entire region once everyone changes over 

Those amounts include what is a portion of frozen precipitation.

As we progress Tuesday night in to Wednesday we end as some upslope snow to end the event and that looks to progress through very rapidly and amounts should be rather light on the order of 1-2″ that will be blown about as things refreeze back over.

Review of January 8, 2024

Review of January 8, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Jan 8(Mon)

Cloudy a.m, a few breaks in the pm

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Town Hill

Polish Mt

Martins Mt

Cumberland to Lavale

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

Oakland area

January 7, 2024

Outlooks:

Yesterdays snow to the right, today and tonight to the left…tomorrow stomp your foot…Tuesday morning to the right, Wednesday morning to the left….

Yesterday’s snowfall left in its wake a snowfall map that looks like

Now we watch the wrap around backside upslope today and tonight begin to fill on the west side of the Alleghenies. Favored upslope areas by 7am Monday 3-6″. As you progress towards the east side of the Alleghenies those amounts rapidly tail off 

The 6z GFS for this current upslope event

and the 6z ECMWF below for this upslope event

overall temps today holding steady to slowly backsliding this afternoon and some gusty winds will accompany this snow blowing it around across the high ground 

Then eyes will go to Tuesday with the next substantial system pushing in. This snow will be to the right, or east side similar to yesterday’s event in snow location. This is more of a quick snow thump(not extended as far east)and transition to sleet, freezing rain and eventually rain area wide as we go late Tuesday , Tuesday night.

the 6z GFS below

The initial thump of snow up the east side

6z GFS snowfall output

and the 6z ECMWF

the western zone of the best snowfall out, should feature a area of sleet and freezing rain.

The areas that miss out on the frozen aspect with this will also have to watch for some high water, as this system looks to have plenty of moisture.

As this system lifts away, to the left cha cha with the wrap around upslope that looks like this off the 6z GFS

Review of January 7, 2024

Review of January 7, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Jan 7(Sun)

 Upslope snow, varying light to moderate

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below-

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml?osite=RLX&tzoff=0&layers%5B%5D=nexrad&layers%5B%5D=warnings&layers%5B%5D=cwas&layers%5B%5D=uscounties&layers%5B%5D=watches&layers%5B%5D=blank&site=RLX&tz=EST&archive=yes&year=2024&month=1&day=7&hour=23&minute=55&warngeo=both&zoom=250&imgsize=640×480&loop=1&frames=90&interval=15&filter=0&cu=0&sortcol=fcster&sortdir=DESC&lsrlook=%2B&lsrwindow=0

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Grantsville to Savage Mt

Frostburg

Lavale to Cumberland

Up Martin’s Mt

Polish Mt

Town Hill

Buck Valley area

Webcams

January 6, 2024

Outlook:

Part 1 now passing by.

Leaving in its wake :

3.8″ Bittinger 2nw Valley, a good portion of sleet beating back totals. 5-6″ amounts eastern Garrett, 5-8″ amounts in Allegany County. A map will be added here later, with reported tallies areas wide 

Now part 2-

The lull between part 1 and part 2(The upslope part) will feature some freezing drizzle in the lull period this evening and overnight.

Part 2 kicks in later tonight through Sunday night. As of now the upslope trend has looked more impressive on the recent model runs. Favorable upslope zones of 3-6″ amounts and that rapidly dries out as you progress east in those areas that did well today and a bit less as you lose elevation west, but still some light amounts there. Let’s look at the

18z GFS below

and the 12z ECMWF below

This will be accompanied by 25-35mph winds Sunday, so blowing and drifting will occur. Temps 24-31 area wide across the high ground Sunday. So the areas west that were on the lower end of tallies today, do best tomorrow.

Eyes will then go to Tuesday. Once again the east side of the Alleghenies may get another quick thump of snow with that, not as widespread eastbound as today’s event was, and again that goes to a mix of sleet to freezing rain to rain with that and back to snow Wednesday. Location will play a big role Tuesday on the duration of the wintry side.

Review of January 6, 2024

Review of January 6, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Jan 6(Sat)

Snow, sleet, freezing rain, rain and depending on location made the difference of how much of those you seen.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below- you’ll notice a slight difference in max temps. That is based on the recording interval if the Dyacon is 10 minutes vs 6 minutes.

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Station repair tomorrow by Dave Carroll

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml?osite=RLX&tzoff=0&layers%5B%5D=nexrad&layers%5B%5D=warnings&layers%5B%5D=cwas&layers%5B%5D=uscounties&layers%5B%5D=watches&layers%5B%5D=blank&site=RLX&tz=EST&archive=yes&year=2024&month=1&day=6&hour=23&minute=55&warngeo=both&zoom=250&imgsize=640×480&loop=1&frames=90&interval=15&filter=0&cu=0&sortcol=fcster&sortdir=DESC&lsrlook=%2B&lsrwindow=0

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Town Hill

*before the snow

Martins Mt

*before the storm

Cumberland to Lavale

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

North Fork Mt

January 5, 2024

Outlook:

Afternoon updates, latest NWS warnings and the 12z ECMWF (Euro) in

Starting off with the latest NWS Warning map

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=LWX&wwa=winter%20storm%20warning

The latest 12z ECMWF

This morning the 6z ECMWF was this for part 1-

and now the 12z went to this for part 1

so it came in a bit juicier

My thoughts from the morning post remain for part 1

And the 12z ECMWF for part 2

my thoughts on part 2 remain

Stay updated to your local NWS forecast and their latest snowfall maps are under the drop-down menu here on this page under snowfall info.

Review of January 5, 2024

Review of January 5, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Jan 5(Fri)

Clear cold valley start, and other cold on top, just not as cold. A tranquil day with a fair amount of sun.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

dyacon data below-

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

*station data expected to resume next week

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

January 5, 2024

Outlook:

Saturday storm thoughts, Sunday upslope.

Saturdays storm system still has plenty of variabilities.

1-Speed

2- QPF-liquid output(includes frozen precip)

3- Mixing potential

• Model variation

The 6z GFS

Precip pushing in Saturday. The GFS typically is a touch too mild on these setups and may be a bit overdone on the mix zone. The focus for the best snow should run from the Allegheny Front to Sideling Hill and north-northeast. A 4-8″ zone. With the precip moving in rapidly, the main brunt of the precip in a 5-8 hour period, once it breaks out and precip rates hold up, mixing should be limited and a primarily a snow event would occur. Lighter rates allow for some sleet to occur in areas.

6z Gfs snowfall output

The 6z Euro

The 6z ECMWF snowfall amounts below and this op run of the ECMWF was a bit low on overall moisture I suspect a slight uptick on 12z

My thoughts for part 1, leaning low to mid range with a good performer grabbing the top end

Some tricky areas that potentially could beat models and these thoughts, may be around Morgantown. You break at snow at a heavier rate, the main part of the system can hold snow longer. So if you get heavier rates going, albeit short lived, it’s enough, fast enough to cause very poor travel. So the expected low zones still can have poor travel with initial heavy rates. Something to watch for, not a lock to occur 

The NWS amounts for Part 1

NWS warnings,watches,advisories

Stay tuned to your local NWS updates through today and Saturday morning as the system continues to evolve and details are honed in. The NWS updated snowfall amounts are linked in the drop-down menu on this page under snowfall info. Those maps may now include snowfall in to part 2.

Between parts 1 and 2(the upslope feature) some light freezing drizzle may occur widespread over the high ground. 

Part 2

Quick thoughts on part 2, the upslope part, this would be Sunday into very early Monday a.m hours. Leaning low to mid range with a good performer grabbing the top end 

After this passes, we watch the Next system Tuesday-Wednesday.

 That’s a snow to sleet, freezing rain to rain and backend wrap around snow. The initial snow brunt potential again is greatest up the eastern Alleghenies, with a mix encroaching southwest to north east. The backend snows at the moment with this look a bit limited as the system pulls northeast. Even with that, the Allegheny equalizer is in play, the east does best initially, west is best with the backsides.

More updates as we get closer to both events and as always, stay tuned to your local NWS on social media, their websites.

January 4, 2024

Outlook:

The ever evolving weekend system continues a trend downward on the expected snowfall tallies. With the main system Saturday, across most of the Alleghenies its looking like a 2-5″ event, with a 4-8″ swath possible on the east side of the Alleghenies, especially near the Mason Dixon like and points northeast. There is almost always a overperforming zone that sets up somewhere just east of the Alleghenies with the setup.

 As that system heads northeast and deepens off the coast, then the uoslope zones will kick in their round 2 feature late Saturday night through Monday a.m where an additional 2-5″ of fluff, that will become windblown fluff can occur. Overall multi day tallies look like they should fall in the low to mid range of those combined amounts, and maybe some areas max out on both.

The 12z GFS which is the lowest of the group comes in with these tallies on Saturday

below is the 6z ECMWF, which is a bit more amped up. The 12z ECMWF will start coming in, in a hour(1pm)

the 12z Canadian, which the Canadian has repeatedly held the highest amounts run after run comes in like this for Saturday

Again those tallies are part 1, then the upslope side part 2 that should add similar tallies on higher ratio snow across the upslope areas.

Eyes then go to the bigger system that looks like will be a snow to sleet/freezing rain to rain to backend snow event. That system potentially could trend colder, or at least entrench cold air at the surface for a longer duration. The GFS often warms things up too fast. I’ll post the 12Z ECMWF a bit later here.

While mentioning colder. Skies clear tonight, high moves over, winds go calm, very dry air mass in place , watch those valley temps plummet overnight. Maybe squeeze out a below 0 reading in the coldest spots.

Review of January 4, 2024

Review of January 4, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Jan 4(Thurs)

Last Night freezing mist to snow by a.m. Areas of snow in to the early afternoon, clouds broke late

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below – the date marked red as battery issue early day, and dyacon does not backfill data the the mesowest graph has. My manual graph, will continue so there is no data loss, just the Dyacon graph will be a few degrees off for the date and have little effect on the monthly.

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Station

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

no data

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml?osite=RLX&tzoff=0&layers%5B%5D=nexrad&layers%5B%5D=warnings&layers%5B%5D=cwas&layers%5B%5D=uscounties&layers%5B%5D=watches&layers%5B%5D=blank&site=RLX&tz=EST&archive=yes&year=2024&month=1&day=4&hour=20&minute=55&warngeo=both&zoom=250&imgsize=640×480&loop=1&frames=90&interval=15&filter=0&cu=0&sortcol=fcster&sortdir=DESC&lsrlook=%2B&lsrwindow=0

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Oakland area

To Cranesville

Sang Run

Grantsville to Savage Mt

Frostburg

Lavale to Cumberland

Martins Mt

Town Hill