January 3, 2023
Outlooks:
 
Before you go wipe out Walmart, cool the hype a bit. You’re not going to be snowed in for days and needing to resort to cannibalism like you’re in the Donner Party deciding who to eat.
As of now, the window of weekend snow looks quite brief. Travel may be bad for a period. Trends have significantly lowered those model images being shared on social media the last 2 days. Those are model images. Not forecast. Those change several times per day. Often the ones that are the most extreme get passed around, the most shares, the most hype and it grows out of control. I think it hit that point yesterday.
Those model images like this one from a few days ago
You know what the same GFS has now for this period
Notice anything🤔. Now this isn’t to say models can’t trend back upward. This is to say there is a fairly big unknown yet
The energy is just entering California. It really needs to clear the Rockies for the models to get a more detailed handle. As of right now.
-it’s a fast mover
– all the energy does not come out and phase and deepen with the weekend event
-it does deepen once it zips off the coast on the current models
-the bigger bundle of energy comes out around Tuesday and that system as of now looks to cut west and would put the region in like for initially a snow setup, then sleet, freezing rain, to plain rain ending as snow as it pulls away. This scenario probably has higher odds than anything major this weekend. NOT writing the weekend system off as being a major event, but it’s looking more likely a quick moving, yet impactful snow that will cause disruptions and poor travel. It’s just not long lasting enough to be considered major. More like a 3-6 maybe 5-10″ event vs 12-24″ type event.
below is the 6z GFS precip type through Wednesday
below is the 0z ECMWF precip type through Wednesday
The 6z GFS mean that combines all 21 ensemble members
below is the 6z ECMWF and its 51 ensemble member mean
Below is the 6z GFS probability of a 6″ snowfall
below is the 6z ECMWF ensemble probability of a 6″ snowfall
and the 6z ECMWF ensemble mean probability of a 12″ snowfall
Squelching the hype. By NO MEANS is any scenario a lock. This could come together and once the energy clears the Rockies modeling could again trend upward. You aren’t going to out guess the modeling.
And for those hoping for a bigger one, the Canadian model is now in your corner
and it’s ensemble probability of a 6″ snowfall
If there is anything to take away from this post it should be,
trends are lowered
there is yet much uncertainty
Temps this morning are mainly in the 20s, with teens highest Wv elevations and 30s lowlands
and the near term light snow looks like a 1-2″ possibility across the high ground Iater tonight and Thursday a.m
Review of January 3, 2023
Review of January 3, 2023
Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21
Jan 3(Wed)
Cloudy early, then more sun than clouds
Bittinger 2nw Valley
Dyacon data below
Garrett County Airport
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Station
Atop Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Station offline
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
- SITE COMPARISON
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Oakland
Cranesville
Sang Run
Allegheny Mountains Weather 