February 16, 2024 OUTLOOK

Start off with the current Winter Storm Warnings across the high ground.

Areas east of the mountains currently in the watch likely will jump to a Winter Weather Advisory or Winter Storm Warning. Snowfall occurs in a short time window and borderline WSW/WWA criteria there. These synoptic systems do not just fizzle working east, and often see some heavier reformation banding within as it gets east further. Not strictly a high elevation event.

NWS WARNINGS

NWS SNOWFALL FORECAST

Broad view

Now bringing it in Office to Office outlook.

STERLING BELOW..out in front with the watches yesterday

PITTSBURGH BELOW

CHARLESTON BELOW

STATE COLLEGE BELOW

At current the system is well off to the west, and will be speeding eastbound today and strengthening a bit.

Current surface map

Temps this morning, accompanied by gusty winds mainly teens above 4000′, 20s elsewhere across the high ground and downsloping 30s east of the mts

By afternoon temps rising upper 20s to mid 30s depending upon elevation

Those strong gusty winds of overnight and this morning relax as we work through the day and go calm to light as the snow begins

This morning modeled gust off the ECMWF

By this evening

by this evening when that snow pushes in, winds will be light and that aids in ratios, keeping the snow from settling as rapidly. So that aids totals.

below is the 6z ECMWF timing it out

As we work past midnight towards dawn Saturday the winds begin to increase again and that will blow the snow and cause some drifting.

Winds Saturday a.m on the increase pictured below

Temps by Saturday morning

Temps in to the mid teens above 4000′ around 20 to 2500-3000′, with winds increasing throwing windchills near 0 to 10.

By afternoon temps don’t go too far from where they started

The snow winds down early morning Saturday, with lingering snowshowers sticking around through the a.m hours. Most of the accumulation will be done by daybreak.

Model to model output

6z HRRR below

6z ECMWF below

6z GFS below. Yesterday the GFS was the lowest output. Now the highest. It did poorly with the early week system as well.

0z Canadian

6z Canadian RDPS

6Z Canadian RGEM

6z NAM12k

Swiss Model -Depth

Snowfall output running very similar on the modeling

• Snowfall occurring with temps 20s, light winds allow for higher ratios. Snowfall output under these conditions should simulate actual depth in these setups a bit better as you don’t get as much settling, cold enough to eliminate melting/compaction

So the earlier you measure as it wraps up, that’s your best time to get a measurement as the high ratio fluff will settle out with winds during the day Saturday. A excellent President Day ski weekend, tubing, sledding etc is on it way. Stay safe, and enjoy..