Outlook from March 5, 2024

Is winter done? Well to say anything for certain would be silly. Time and time again, models have lead many astray this winter. There is some reason to believe them now. One is, as the seasonal transition of winter to spring, wave lengths shortern, patterns will progress. That’s exactly where the models go. It is a ways out. The gut says a 7-15 day wintry period will setup as we progress later in to the month and begin April. It would not be a shock to see astronomical spring begin wintry and lasting through Easter. Not a lock. But the look is there.

Lets look at modeling and watch as this progresses over the coming weeks.

Starting with the 18z GFS ensemble at our current time

and we end like

The ECMWF ensemble control. We begin like this

and it ends like

The ECMWF ensemble begins

and we end like

The Canadian ensembles begin like

and we end like

ECMWF WEEKLIES control in that period 7 day anomaly

and the Weeklies 7 day anomaly

The ECMWF AI model begins like

and ends like

The teleconnections fit the look

Slightly negative, the very end of the period will be the focus

Big modeled EPO drop…that will progress the pattern with a building western ridge as shown by the PNA going positive

As we progress to that time period the high elevations are still well within play for some winter fun. The higher sun angle and cold air masses always can create some good instability for squalls…some blocking going on, shorter wave lengths can tighten up a strong low. It may be a interesting period and not uncommon to get this mild weather to prelude patterns like may potentially occur..

The potential light upslope Sunday is in non relation to what may occur later on. That’s a blip that comes and comes, not a hit with any attempt to hold.

Review of March 5, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Mar 5(Tues)

A variety of conditions from west to east. The Alleghenies and west had a pleasant day while east was wet and more dreary. That dreariness of fog, low clouds had made its way back to parts of the Alleghenies early a.m before departing by mid morning.

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below

Garrett County Airport

Hearing peepers along Mosser Rd along Bear Creek area.

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′