Outlook from March 10, 2024

Winter Storm Warnings out across the Alleghenies. Will all areas reach that criteria. Unlikely. For a good portion of this morning, things will look pretty boring. Winds are up, some areas of initial light snow has occurred and flakes flying and some areas of sun. Those mid range 2000-2800′ areas that see some sun and brighter periods may melt off with little action prior to the increase in activity later.

View of 7Springs this morning

And a view of Mt.Davis

Savage Mt

Lower New Germany I68

Deep Creek Lake 219

Centennial Park 219,  more action occurred here under the colder air

Corridor H near Mt.Storm

33 at the divide east of Harman

Down to Spruce Knob area

Snowshoe-with guns cranking

Satellite near 9am. Plenty of broken skies as you approach the Mason Dixon line. That light dusting some areas saw, very well may melt off in sunny areas today ahead of developing squall activity.  That will aid the instability, try to warm the lower levels up in this cold unstable air mass and fire those squalls up.

Radar

Best of light activity in WV at the moment.

A jump to current temps

Factoring in the gusty 30-40mph winds that will increase..windchills single digits WV High Ground

Now to some modeling for the event on snowfall

6z ECMWF

6z GFS

Canadian short range

12zHRRR

  You can see how the mescoscale short range modeling tries to pick out some of the potential on the streamers, squalls, and elongated squalls. Those elongated squalls is really what’s needed go get some of those potential higher totals.

  Many areas very well may end up low on snow totals that miss out in squalls. With little activity this a.m, some breaks of sun. Some of the winter storm warning areas may have simply bare ground going in to the afternoon. That said, stay alert to radar. With the Winter Storm Warnings in place, the weather service will not issue snow squall warnings. So, some alertness to radar is important. This is why in my personal opinion, leaving the winter weather advisory in place, as most will fall in that criteria, with the squall areas potentially reaching winter storm warning totals criteria would have been a better call to bring awareness to the snow squalls which should be the main player for the higher accumulations and the rapid travel deterioration.

NWS snowfall forecast

And those warning areas

Stay alert to radar this afternoon. A sunny ho hum this is boring can change to inches within a short time frame and cause poor travel. All the while down the road a mile little action may be occurring.