March 13, 2024

March 13, 2024March 14, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

March 13. 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Mar 13(Wed)

Some mid and high level clouds a.m and turning sunny

Bittinger 2nw Valley

Dyacon data below

Bittinger 2nw Valley afternoon- drift in view

Throwback to The Blizzard of 93′

Garrett County Airport

Meadow Mt fire tower-Deep Creek State Park

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Amaranth

Sideling Hill Creek at Northcraft

Town Hill

Green Ridge

Polish Mt

Martins Mt

Cumberland to Lavale

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

March 12, 2024

March 12, 2024March 16, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

March 12, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Mar 12(Tues)

Clear skies, windy

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Dyacon data below

Bittinger 2NW Valley morning “experimental fridge spot”

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network coop

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Amaranth

Sideling Hill Creek at Northcraft

Town Hill

Polish Mt

Green Ridge

Martins Mt

Cumberland to Lavale

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

Webcams

March 11, 2024

March 11, 2024March 12, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

March 11, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Mar 11(Mon)

Some clouds and flakes early after heavier squalls last night. Things cleared off today, winds remained.

Bittinger 2NW Valley

An additional 3.8″ last evening/overnight

5.3 event total

100.6″ season to date

Dyacon data below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Atop Canaan Ski

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/GIS/apps/rview/warnings.phtml?osite=RLX&tzoff=0&layers%5B%5D=nexrad&layers%5B%5D=warnings&layers%5B%5D=cwas&layers%5B%5D=uscounties&layers%5B%5D=watches&layers%5B%5D=blank&site=RLX&tz=EST&archive=yes&year=2024&month=3&day=11&hour=13&minute=55&warngeo=both&zoom=250&imgsize=640×480&loop=1&frames=90&interval=15&filter=0&cu=0&sortcol=fcster&sortdir=DESC&lsrlook=%2B&lsrwindow=0

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Sideling Hill Creek at Northcraft

Town Hill

Polish Mt

Martins Mt

Cumberland to Lavale

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville area

Oakland area

Webcams

March 10, 2024

March 10, 2024March 10, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

March 10, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Mar 10(Sun)

A wintry day. Snow was more Wv focused early, scattered north and things filled in through the day with squalls, snow showers, windy

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon

Garrett County Airport

-more shots from 219 bridge in webcams below

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valley

WV High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Grantsville to Savage Mt

Frostburg

hour later

Cumberland to Lavale

hour n half later

Rocky Gap

Town Hill

Sideling Hill Creek at Northcraft

Buck Valley area

Webcams today

Outlook from March 10, 2024

March 10, 2024March 10, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

Outlook from March 10, 2024

Winter Storm Warnings out across the Alleghenies. Will all areas reach that criteria. Unlikely. For a good portion of this morning, things will look pretty boring. Winds are up, some areas of initial light snow has occurred and flakes flying and some areas of sun. Those mid range 2000-2800′ areas that see some sun and brighter periods may melt off with little action prior to the increase in activity later.

View of 7Springs this morning

And a view of Mt.Davis

Savage Mt

Lower New Germany I68

Deep Creek Lake 219

Centennial Park 219, more action occurred here under the colder air

Corridor H near Mt.Storm

33 at the divide east of Harman

Down to Spruce Knob area

Snowshoe-with guns cranking

Satellite near 9am. Plenty of broken skies as you approach the Mason Dixon line. That light dusting some areas saw, very well may melt off in sunny areas today ahead of developing squall activity. That will aid the instability, try to warm the lower levels up in this cold unstable air mass and fire those squalls up.

Radar

Best of light activity in WV at the moment.

A jump to current temps

Factoring in the gusty 30-40mph winds that will increase..windchills single digits WV High Ground

Now to some modeling for the event on snowfall

6z ECMWF

6z GFS

Canadian short range

12zHRRR

You can see how the mescoscale short range modeling tries to pick out some of the potential on the streamers, squalls, and elongated squalls. Those elongated squalls is really what’s needed go get some of those potential higher totals.

Many areas very well may end up low on snow totals that miss out in squalls. With little activity this a.m, some breaks of sun. Some of the winter storm warning areas may have simply bare ground going in to the afternoon. That said, stay alert to radar. With the Winter Storm Warnings in place, the weather service will not issue snow squall warnings. So, some alertness to radar is important. This is why in my personal opinion, leaving the winter weather advisory in place, as most will fall in that criteria, with the squall areas potentially reaching winter storm warning totals criteria would have been a better call to bring awareness to the snow squalls which should be the main player for the higher accumulations and the rapid travel deterioration.

NWS snowfall forecast

And those warning areas

Stay alert to radar this afternoon. A sunny ho hum this is boring can change to inches within a short time frame and cause poor travel. All the while down the road a mile little action may be occurring.

March 9, 2024

March 9, 2024March 10, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

March 9, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Mar 9(Sat)

Rainy, some fog through the day

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Atop Canaan Ski Area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

SITE COMPARISON

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

WV High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

OUTLOOK FROM MARCH 9, 2024

March 9, 2024March 9, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

Outlook from March 9, 2024

A rainy start to Saturday as seen by radar

Rainfall will continue to work through the day today in to the overnight, before colder air works in and we see things begin to flip to some snow activity.

Before the changeover to snow, rainfall tallies look to range in the .75 to 1.50 range

6z ECMWF below

6z GFS below

The chilly temps of this morning, mainly 30s,40s

Those number will not go far today under the wet conditions. 6z ECMWF temps below

As the colder air works in, so does the opportunity for snow activity. That snow activity should increase through the day Sunday. We are in March now. The higher sun angle adding surface warmth with the cold unstable air mass pushing in will only add to the instability through the afternoon and in to the early overnight Sunday.

Expect squalls and enlongated squalls Sunday afternoon in to the overnight. With those, some areas do miss out on the snow while others are in the snow. With the higher sun, slightly warmer ground. Some mid range elevations in the upslope zones 2500′-3000′ and below areas may even bare off from the lighter morning snows unless under some more persistent activity. So overall snow totals will vary. Location to location.

1- elevation, 2- persistentcy of snow activity will play a role in accumulation totals.

That said, those warmer roadway temps will rapidly cool under temps in 20s, strong winds and any squalls can rapidly cover roadways creating poor travel.

The modeled snowfall

6z ECMWF

6z GFS

Likely those amounts will be low in places that see persistent squalls. While some of the lighter amounts will even melt off some.

Some of the mesoscale modeling does of better job of hinting at this. Using the Canadian short range here as the U.S mesoscale models look a bit bizarre this morning.

Here you can see the model hinting at streamers and or elongated squalls. Those are the ones where if you are under you are saying wow, this is over performing, if you are not under, oh this is a dud. Impossible to tell where they set up best. A area that frequently seems to get under those is the I68 area.

The NWS is out with advisories. Also the NWS snowfall links are included on the page under “snowfall info” on the drop-down links on mobile or it should be visible on non mobile devices.

The details in the winter weather advisory are as follows

The NWS snowfall map looks like

I’d lean a general 2-4″ totals with higher pops.

This is also accompanied by strong winds. So along with the Winter Weather Advisories are wind advisories

Modeled winds off the 6z ECMWF

Things moderate Monday. The winds stay up, temps back to the 30s, low 40s and then high pressure moves over and those winds die and we have a moderated air mass with more daytime diurnal warmth Tues-Thurs. That’s accompanied by yet low dewpoints and calmer conditions for that duration. Low dewpoints and light winds are the best combo to limit snow melt for the area resorts that will remain open after the weekend. Further out, some rain to snow again as we go through next weekend and models all hint at some bouts of cold and snow from then through Easter. Mild blips will be bound to occur as well.