Outlook from March 5, 2024
Is winter done? Well to say anything for certain would be silly. Time and time again, models have lead many astray this winter. There is some reason to believe them now. One is, as the seasonal transition of winter to spring, wave lengths shortern, patterns will progress. That’s exactly where the models go. It is a ways out. The gut says a 7-15 day wintry period will setup as we progress later in to the month and begin April. It would not be a shock to see astronomical spring begin wintry and lasting through Easter. Not a lock. But the look is there.
Lets look at modeling and watch as this progresses over the coming weeks.
Starting with the 18z GFS ensemble at our current time
and we end like
The ECMWF ensemble control. We begin like this
and it ends like
The ECMWF ensemble begins
and we end like
The Canadian ensembles begin like
and we end like
ECMWF WEEKLIES control in that period 7 day anomaly
and the Weeklies 7 day anomaly
The ECMWF AI model begins like
and ends like
The teleconnections fit the look
As we progress to that time period the high elevations are still well within play for some winter fun. The higher sun angle and cold air masses always can create some good instability for squalls…some blocking going on, shorter wave lengths can tighten up a strong low. It may be a interesting period and not uncommon to get this mild weather to prelude patterns like may potentially occur..
The potential light upslope Sunday is in non relation to what may occur later on. That’s a blip that comes and comes, not a hit with any attempt to hold.
Review of March 5, 2024
Review of March 5, 2024
Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21
Mar 5(Tues)
A variety of conditions from west to east. The Alleghenies and west had a pleasant day while east was wet and more dreary. That dreariness of fog, low clouds had made its way back to parts of the Alleghenies early a.m before departing by mid morning.
Bittinger 2nw Valley
Dyacon data below
Garrett County Airport
- Hearing peepers along Mosser Rd along Bear Creek area.
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Atop Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
- SITE COMPARISON
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2nw Valley vs Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
WV High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Cranesville
The Yough at Sang Run
Allegheny Mountains Weather 