April 2, 2024 Outlook

Rounds of rain, rounds of storms,  colder push and snow

Rainfall amounts since Saturday in the 1-3″ range in the Alleghenies with more to go. Here is radar after 8pm

Areas of heavy rain, storms, severe storms that carry severe thunderstorm warnings and a Tornado warning west and a Tornado watch area over much of western West Virginia. 

https://www.weather.gov/rlx/ click for details

https://www.weather.gov/pbz/ click for details

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/ click for details

https://www.weather.gov/ctp/ click for details

The severity of the storms should weaken some as they come across the Alleghenies, but that said, strong thunderstorms, drenching downpours and gusty winds are possible overnight in to Wednesday.

Modeled lightning off the HRRR

Rainfall off the HRRR and with these setups, do not focus or pinpoint any particular location. Modeling will not nail these setups with great accuracy, but it’s a great tool for potential rainfall and anyone is fair game to max out or miss out. This runs through midday Wednesday and rain will continue beyond that as well as the intrusion of colder air that will begin to transition rain to snow across the WV High ground Wednesday afternoon/evening and elsewhere overnight.

Temps as we go through the night and beyond off the GFS

That colder air aloft, the 850 temps which are a good indicator of the WV high ground

When you see that gray color, 0° C which is 32°F that a good indicator of the surface temps across the WV High ground and often you’ll see precip transition to snow as that colder air works in.  That coldest push later Thursday night, Friday a.m and again Friday pm/ night should be the best snow periods

A look at the precip type off the GFS

Hopefully the GFS beyond the ending of the snow activity Saturday is off for the eclipse time Monday. Other modeling looks a bit better for Monday as far as cloud cover vs the GFS.

No big changes on snow thoughts. Modeling holds fairly steady with typical fluctuations

18z GFS

12z ECMWF

Model Blend

This will give a good idea of ranges but does not take elevation in to account with any detail. Areas below 3000′-3500 will struggle with daytime accumulation and deal with daytime meltback, especially with lulls in the action and compression more so than 4000’+. 

So my thoughts on totals and lean low to mid range with these, with a strong performance maxing out. Also keep in mind of the compression and melt as multi day accumulation and snow depths are not the same thing. For example  Areas around 2500-3000 may get 3″ Friday morning at 7am, lose a inch or 2 depth midday and pick up 2″ Friday pm and night and may end up with 5-6″ of accumulation, but never have more than 3 or 4 on the ground. As you go up in elevation, temps a notch colder, winds a notch higher and precip consistency a bit more will lead to less daytime melt and compression. And if precip consistency has minimal lulls, that factor becomes less. That’s a product of it being April and the higher sun angle and longer days, warmer ground that can be overcome and we have seen it plenty of times. Even in May.

So the thoughts remain,  again, lean low to mid with a good performer maxing out

Notice the snow accumulation angle. As you go east with upslope, you lose some moisture, and also more lulls equal less on the ground, more melting etc when it isn’t snowing. Last May the difference from Backbone Mt to Mt.Storm was significant. Those elevations  and west to east thoughts in those images, you can carry that down the Alleghenies PA to Snowshoe/Cranberry Wilderness area. Just some examples of the thoughts on the snowfall.