Heavy rains early, a break, with more rains mid morning, showers through the afternoon and a transition to graupel, ice pellet, flake evening. Also some fog across the high ground at times. Eventful.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
another 1.92 since last evening at 6pm. Since Saturday 4.90″
Dyacon Data Below
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd morning North branch of the Cassleman Rock Lodge Rd morning West of Bittinger morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning South end Amish Rd morning Bittinger morning Bittinger morning Foxtown Rd afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon “experimental spot”Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon “dry pee spot”Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Near old Cherry Glade Church evening
Garrett County Airport
Mchenry morning By Garrett College morning Mosser Rd morning Cherry Creek at Mosser Rd morning Cherry Creek at Mosser Rd morning Mosser Rd afternoon Mosser Rd at Cherry Creek afternoon Mosser Rd at Cherry Creek afternoon Mosser Rd at Bear Creek evening
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Atop Canaan Ski area
–
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
SITE COMPARISON
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
Subbed in new Frostburg mesonet for Cumberland stations that’s offline
Rounds of rain, rounds of storms, colder push and snow
Rainfall amounts since Saturday in the 1-3″ range in the Alleghenies with more to go. Here is radar after 8pm
Areas of heavy rain, storms, severe storms that carry severe thunderstorm warnings and a Tornado warning west and a Tornado watch area over much of western West Virginia.
The severity of the storms should weaken some as they come across the Alleghenies, but that said, strong thunderstorms, drenching downpours and gusty winds are possible overnight in to Wednesday.
Modeled lightning off the HRRR
Rainfall off the HRRR and with these setups, do not focus or pinpoint any particular location. Modeling will not nail these setups with great accuracy, but it’s a great tool for potential rainfall and anyone is fair game to max out or miss out. This runs through midday Wednesday and rain will continue beyond that as well as the intrusion of colder air that will begin to transition rain to snow across the WV High ground Wednesday afternoon/evening and elsewhere overnight.
Temps as we go through the night and beyond off the GFS
That colder air aloft, the 850 temps which are a good indicator of the WV high ground
When you see that gray color, 0° C which is 32°F that a good indicator of the surface temps across the WV High ground and often you’ll see precip transition to snow as that colder air works in. That coldest push later Thursday night, Friday a.m and again Friday pm/ night should be the best snow periods
A look at the precip type off the GFS
Hopefully the GFS beyond the ending of the snow activity Saturday is off for the eclipse time Monday. Other modeling looks a bit better for Monday as far as cloud cover vs the GFS.
No big changes on snow thoughts. Modeling holds fairly steady with typical fluctuations
18z GFS
12z ECMWF
Model Blend
This will give a good idea of ranges but does not take elevation in to account with any detail. Areas below 3000′-3500 will struggle with daytime accumulation and deal with daytime meltback, especially with lulls in the action and compression more so than 4000’+.
So my thoughts on totals and lean low to mid range with these, with a strong performance maxing out. Also keep in mind of the compression and melt as multi day accumulation and snow depths are not the same thing. For example Areas around 2500-3000 may get 3″ Friday morning at 7am, lose a inch or 2 depth midday and pick up 2″ Friday pm and night and may end up with 5-6″ of accumulation, but never have more than 3 or 4 on the ground. As you go up in elevation, temps a notch colder, winds a notch higher and precip consistency a bit more will lead to less daytime melt and compression. And if precip consistency has minimal lulls, that factor becomes less. That’s a product of it being April and the higher sun angle and longer days, warmer ground that can be overcome and we have seen it plenty of times. Even in May.
So the thoughts remain, again, lean low to mid with a good performer maxing out
Notice the snow accumulation angle. As you go east with upslope, you lose some moisture, and also more lulls equal less on the ground, more melting etc when it isn’t snowing. Last May the difference from Backbone Mt to Mt.Storm was significant. Those elevations and west to east thoughts in those images, you can carry that down the Alleghenies PA to Snowshoe/Cranberry Wilderness area. Just some examples of the thoughts on the snowfall.
Rounds of rain, some storms, period of sun more rain
Bittinger 2NW Valley
Dyacon Data Below
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon “ramps poppin” slightly ahead of schedule Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon “scratch your screen and sniff”Bittinger 2NW Valley 5pm as another round begins Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades evening
Garrett County Airport
Deep Creek Lake morning
Top of Wisp
Afternoon Afternoon Evening
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Atop Canaan Ski area
–
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
Flood threat, Severe threat, Snow threat remains……
A start with the flood watches that are in effect and have expanded to Somerset County and I’d expect with all the modeling pointing some of the heaviest Pittsburgh to Johnstown you’ll see Cambria fall in to that watch area as well.
Modeling on the rains just past changeover to snow time
18z ECMWF 18z GFS
18z HRRR out 48hrs through 2pm Wednesday
18z HRRR
Rainfall tallies for round 1 plus round 2(Saturday night, Sunday night/Monday am)
Bittinger 2NW Valley 2.08″
Strong and severe storms may accompany the drenching downpours Tuesday in to Wednesday. May area should hold west of the Alleghenies.
So this aspect will need to be monitored as we go through the next 36-48 hours
Then eyes will transition to the backside wintry aspect.
Snow should begin to mix in Wednesday afternoon across the WV high ground first, then elsewhere across the Alleghenies as we go through the overnight Wednesday.
Accumulations initially across the high Wv locations and lowering. Below 3000-3500′ may melt back off Thursday during the peak diurnal afternoon hours and then start accumulating late day. Thursday night through Friday night should be the main accumulation period.
18z GFS
Temps off the 18z GFS
Potential accumulations at elevations below 3000′ again will be impacted by marginal daytime temps, sun angle, so compression and diurnal melt will be most prevalent in this zone. As you go up it will gradually become less and less as temps will be lower and precipitation will be more persistent. There is no diurnal temp rise across the high ground as it’s precipitating. Temps on the tops Friday afternoon may not get out of the mid 20s as the 850 temps suggest.
So upslope snowfall thoughts Wednesday P.M to Saturday A.M
You can carry that same type of thoughts on down the Alleghenies.
The northern Alleghenies with a bit less elevation north will battle that daytime mektback, compression, with the areas near and above 3000′ doing the best.
Modeling looks like
18z GFS12z ECMWF Model Blend
These are not mesoscale models and the grid points are much larger. So, manual judgments of elevation, daytime melt, compression are used. This also will include the snow depth maps some post. Those maps have NO physics for elevational gains over a mile or 2 and more of a blended broadbrush. Those snow depth maps fail throughout the entire winter.
While accumulation and depths over a multi day can vary greatly, that variance is less on the tops vs those lower zones that experience more meltback.
So far things have nearly held course from what modeling showed later last week. So let’s watch to see how the flood risk, severe risk, and that winter threat continue to evolve over the coming days.
Heavy a.m rains near the Mason Dixon, things broke in the afternoon with some sun
Bittinger 2NW Valley
Dyacon Data Below
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Garrett County Airport
Deep Creek Lake morning
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Atop Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
–
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
Allegheny Mountains Weather 