A look ahead to the incoming heat.The bogus readings that will be had during this time and the attempt to measure the accurate temperature. First a quick look at today and if we will see any storms and needed precip. The dry conditions will continue to worsen and that too aids in the high temperatures.

Latest from AI Elon

Later today we have cold front pushing in

Timing it out with the HRRR

SPC Severe Outlook

Outside of the areas that get under some storms, rainfall looks relatively light. If you’re under a storm or storms. Rainfall amounts of .5 to 1.00+ possible. Otherwise likely .25 or less in areas missing out.

In general we need some rainfall. While there has been a fair share of days with showers, for a month now, most of those have been relatively light. Yes. There are exceptions. Generally speaking things for the last month have been below normal rainfall wise.

A look at May 14th to June 13th departure

The year from January 1, leading up to May 13th, from Garrett County on north things were plenty wet

Year to date those areas still look fine in the grand scheme or what is expected since Jan 1. While the WV high ground remains well below normal.

The upcoming 2 weeks at the present time does not look very promising

The ECMWF(Euro) ensemble mean at 0z departures below

GFS ensemble below

Now, through the next 2 weeks with the heat coming in, there can be at times a buildup of slow moving drenching storms. That’s a bit of a relief temp wise, but also a much needed moisture bonus that many won’t see, at least as it looks now during the period.

After this great hay making period that’s been going on for most of the last week plus, the 2nd crop this season may be a slow go without some changes.

Current Soil Moisture Index

The already dry mouth and heat and continued dry weather will lead to some of these conditions worsening. At least potentially. Another vegetation response index. A vegetation stress factor .

Drought Monitor and expect this to expand with the next update

Area waterways running a bit low now.

Something that will come in to effect the next week to 2 weeks, even in areas that have done well so far is the EDDI(Evaporative Demand Drought Index)

Expected to see over the next 7-10 days +:

High temps ✔️

Low Precip ✔️

High Evapotranspiration ✔️ (which does help to keep temps in check somewhat)

This though can lead to the flash drought potential. Those ingredients are in play.

Conditions pleasant until Monday when both temps and dewpoints rise. Dewpoints however do not look to be horrendous the entire time. Lower dewpoints though actually enable the actual ambient air temp to be able climb a bit more efficiently. Moisture is a stabilizer. The less of it, the wilder the temperature swings.

Temp Anomalies off the Euro Ensemble next 10 days.

Models build a strong ridge over the mid Atlantic and northeast. 600 became decameter ridge by the Euro which is fairly rare, but not much different than any other major summer time ridge

The GFS similar at 6z

Go back and look for hot periods. One example of many. 1953. Simply how you develop record heat with some duration across the Mid Atlantic.

Right now, your phone apps go bonkers with numbers as they are direct output from modeling. They are not forecasted with any type of climatology involved.

The Weather Service numbers reflect reality a bit better

again a forecast. It’s pretty rare to exceed 86° in many areas in the Alleghenies. AHS heat zone map, while generalized reflects that threshold well and many years, plenty of locations remain below 85°. Spruce Knob never touched 80 last summer. I do think that next week even on top will crest 80. Terrain, evapotranspiration/forested areas play a big role in that.

other numbers for next week. From the GFS Mos that does incorporate climatology . Further out more variability will play in to numbers. Focus within the 7 day window

and the blended model in that ball park

Expect towns, any localized UHI(urban heat island) impact to crest 90. Even in the high ground. Without a doubt, a area like Mchenry is warmer today than 50 years ago for that reason alone. It’s much more minimal effect vs large cities but anywhere you start laying pavement and building, localized temp impacts exist.

The typical hot areas like Cumberland, Petersburg, Morgantown, expect to see some legit 95-102 temps next week.

Which brings us to readings. How to get a accurate temperature. Backyard thermometers, car thermometers, bank thermometers are highly impacted during these hot sunny periods. You will be seeing pictures like this

John will say, it was 100 degree yesterday, Mike will comment I had 121 when I left the store this afternoon

Now was it 100 where that sensor is placed at the bank getting all the radiation feedback from the artificial surroundings. Some of those bank sensors are a foot off the ground, some are a foot from concrete, metal etc. Those objects get hot, much hotter on a hot sunny day vs the actual air temp and that air gives the bogus reading. No different in a car. You go in the store awhile. All the heat buildup on the pavement, trapped under your car, heating your car, your car may already be hot from driving. It’s reads way hotter than the actual temperature. As you drive away, it will come down and may come close in line with reality, but you’re still driving over pavement (likely, not always) with a heated object. With good air flow from driving through, it helps alot.

Then we move to the case of the backyard thermometer. The key is good air flow, in a protective radiation shield, away from houses, eaves(even shaded eves heat up) rooftops are to be avoided, decks. Even smaller radiation shields on a hot sunny day are impacted when properly sited.

Various shields are available online. They often look like

Then the MMTS shield that NWS issues to their observers. The standard.

Some coops still use the old CRS(Cotton Region Shelters) locally the Savage River observer does

You’ll want your thermometer around 6 foot above the surface. Why, the surface gets much hotter. Illustrated below

NWS guidelines. If you go to the trouble of gathering data, go to the trouble of gathering as accurate as data as possible.

Even when all these factors are perfect, some error can still exist. Some personal stations are mechanically aspirated which aids in keeping a good air flow moving across the sensor. The Virginia Tech stations use a mechanically aspirated Apogee brand shield and if you want some good messages on this type of thing, Bruce Bugbee of Apogee does a excellent job

Getting a accurate temp is not always easy. Getting one in hot weather gets even a bit harder. The objective is though, to have data on a equal playing field to compare. That’s why there are guidelines.