June 20, 2024

June 20, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

June 20(Thurs)

Some clouds, lots of sun

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Dyacon Data Below

Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning
West of Bittinger morning
West of Bittinger morning
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning “sweet azalea “
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon “jack in the pulpit”
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon “Glade Run trout”

Garrett County Airport

Mchenry morning
Mosser Rd morning
Cherry Creek at Mosser Rd morning
Deep Creek Lake morning
Deep Creek Lake morning “trees starting to green back up after canker worm damage”
Deep Creek Lake morning
Mchenry afternoon

Top of Wisp

Afternoon

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • Site Comparison

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Cranesville

The Yough at Sang Run

Oakland

Grantsville to Savage Mt

Lavale to Cumberland

Polish Mt

Town Hill

June 19, 2024

June 19, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

June 19(Wed)

High thin clouds that allowed for plenty of sun through the day

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Dyacon Data Below

Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning
West of Bittinger morning
West of Bittinger morning
West of Bittinger morning
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger morning looking NW
Bittinger morning
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon. ID uncertain
Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades evening

Garrett County Airport

Cherry Creek at Mosser Rd morning
Rock Lodge Rd morning
State Park Rd morning
State Park Rd morning
Deep Creek Lake morning

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

7am to 7am data mmts coop BP

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • Site Comparison

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Grantsville

Oakland

33 East of Harman at the divide

June 18, 2024

June 18, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

June 18(Tues)

Sun, clouds

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Dyacon Data Below

Spring Water Temp that remains largely unchanged over the course of the year. 46.8° to 47.0°

Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning
West of Bittinger morning
West of Bittinger morning
West of Bittinger morning
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades evening

Garrett County Airport

Cherry Creek at Mosser Rd morning
Deep Creek Lake morning
219 near Glendale morning

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

7am to 7am data mmts coop BP

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • Site Comparison

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Rapid Morgantown drop was due to thunderstorm.

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Oakland area

Cranesville

The Yough at Sang Run

Meanwhile in Montana

June 17, 2024

June 17, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

June 17(Mon)

A pleasant valley start that ended up being the warmest day of the year to date. A few areas of showers in the a.m, otherwise plenty of sun with some clouds mixed in.

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Dyacon Data Below

Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
West of Bittinger morning
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon, a early bloomer in full sun
Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley evening

Garrett County Airport

Rock Lodge Rd morning
State Park Rd morning
Deep Creek Lake morning

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • Site Comparison

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Town Hill

Polish Mt

Martin’s Mt

Cumberland to lavale

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

Oakland

North of Oakland morning. Few sprinkles with this

Cranesville

The Yough at Sang Run

June 16, 2024

June 16, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

June 16(Sun)

Lots of sun, few clouds. Touch warmer. Forecast and modeling overdone on temps today.

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Dyacon Data Below

Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

7am to 7am data mmts coop BP

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • Site Comparison

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Upcoming Heat Week of June 17-23

Excessive Heat Watches are being issued and the map below will see those expand. By later today you’ll likely see the red highlighted area blossom as more counties fall under the criteria. As of now

As we go from today to Monday, 2 things will be noticeable.

1- Temps will be warmer

2- Dewpoints will be up

This combo will lead to some stationary to slow moving showers and short lived storms in areas. Not widespread, but it’s a setup isolated areas develop and rain out near the area they developed.

Temps this week off the 0z GFS

Dewpoints off the 0z GFS

Relative Humidity

If there is a saving grace this week, under the big dominating ridge that centers overhead, afternoon peak heating times after Tuesday occur with dewpoints that are in the modest zone. So in a little respect, those days, the worst of the heat is a relatively “dry heat” for peak afternoon heating. However, dry air does heat up a easier vs moist air. The less water molecules in the air that heat up much slower than air, the more rapidly the air temp increases with incoming solar radiation. Hotter ambient air temp though does not always feel hotter though and the drier air allows our body to have some evaporative cooling as we sweat. Hence the saying “but it’s a dry heat”.

From Wednesday in to the weekend, we should see Valley areas still falling off in to the 50s at night and potentially even a upper 40 or 2 late week in the coldest spots. Dewpoints will rise a bit overnights and dry out some in the afternoon. As temps, dewpoints grow closer at night, the air is more saturated so naturally on the modeling you see the relative humidity increase.

Temps across the high ground this week look to run mainly 80s. You’ll have the highest Wv locations run 77-82, in towns 86-91 with most areas falling those in between across Alleghenies.

The lower elevations for example Cumberland, Morgantown, Petersburg, etc etc will take runs in the mid to upper 90s and I suspect you’ll see some UHI (urban hear island) effects pushing in town temps over 100-105°.

Weather Service Numbers

K2G4 Garrett County Airport

KCBE Cumberland Regional Airport

KGMW Morgantown

KEKN Jennings Randolph Field Elkins

Across the high ground afternoon Heat Indexes will not be much different than the actual ambient air temperature from mid to late week. They will run a bit higher Monday/Tuesday

Heat Index Charts below using RH and DP

https://www.calculator.net/heat-index-calculator.html?airtemperature=85&airtemperatureunit=fahrenheit&humidity=46&ctype=1&x=Calculate

In Review

  • Muggiest weather of the work week is Monday, Tuesday
  • Hot all week
  • Localized slow moving to stationary showers and storms Monday and Tuesday. Those can form and rain themselves out without a great deal of movement. They will also aid in the muggy and temporarily oppressive feel once over.

Things to expect

  • In town temps to run hotter
  • Low elevations in town UHI areas to exceed 100° at least once
  • Spruce Knob to crack 80°

If you’re working outside, use some caution if you have any of the following symptoms

Stay tuned to your local NWS as heat watches expand. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/wwa/

In general just expect it to be a hot week.

Also remember you can use your point and click options on the weather service maps

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=255&y=200&site=pbz&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=254&map_y=200

Click the map for your location

Then click on the graph option on the site for your area

(these will not forecast night valley temps well)

Again many bogus temperature numbers will be reported this week. Reliable accurate temperatures will rely heavily on a well sited station (6 foot, good air flow away from heat impacting objects) and proper radiation shield. Shaded roof eaves, shaded trees still will trap heat radiation leaving numbers higher than reality. Rooftop stations will struggle. Car thermometers impacted by their surrounding heat source and pavement. Those will come in line somewhat better as you get traveling, but still are getting surface warmth in the area you’re driving.

examples of good radiation shields

when properly sited these will aid the sensor in a more accurate reading. With calm to light winds, even these can be impacted some during high solar periods and a mechanically aspirated shield would be slightly better.

Bank thermometers are not an example of a proper site. You’ll notice many business, bank, police barrack thermometers, the sensor is either close to the surface or the surface of a heat absorbing object. Greatly impacting the number shown.

Just a grass surface will run much hotter than at 6ft the standard height of recording

and pavement much hotter

Easy also to see why those objects impact temp readings if the sensor is too close.

Stay Cool…

And think cold

The Heat Is On This Coming Week, Stay Cool

The heat is on, likely reaching some numbers we haven’t seen in years. However, the entire stretch won’t feel horrid thank to dewpoints being modest from Wednesday in to the weekend. The daytime dewpoints/air temp spread gives a low relative humidity. Making your “reel feel, apparent temp, heat index” not that much different than the actual ambient air temp. So, while hot is going to be the theme, the stretch will not be consistently oppressive. Monday and Tuesday may feel the most oppressive. However, the media will jump all over the max temp numbers as it’s a big headline. Rightfully so, but as far as oppressive goes. Its not much different than our typical hot summer days as far as that goes.

With the relstively comfortable dewpoints from Wednesday in to the weekend

GFS DEWPOINTS Afternoons at peak heating

ECMWF (Euro Dewpoints) afternoons at peak heating

So, most of that time will feature a “semi dry heat” in the afternoon. Night time dewpoints will come up slightly, so as temps fall, meet the dewpoints, relative humidity climbs, a typical night-day, night- day process.

When the air is drier, our sweat can evaporate into the air, drying our skin and letting our body heat escape and our body cool off. The drier the air, the less it feels hot to us. The opposite is true, when things become more humid.

Now Monday and Tuesday. A muggier, humid feel is present

GFS DEWPOINTS peak heating afternoon Monday and Tuesday

ECMWF DEWPOINTS peak heating Monday-Tuesday

Now let’s look at temps off the modeling and take these with a little grain of salt or 3 because modeling does NOT handle extremes well and the typical bias is too hot. Even today the modeling was several degrees off. Keep in mind phone apps are model outputs.

GFS afternoon temps this week

GFS with showers and storm potential Monday and Tuesday with the heat, high dewpoints, those slow moving sometimes stationary downpours occur with no great mechanism to move them along. Raining themselves out in one place while a mile away is dry.

onward

Now on to the ECMWF for the week which is hotter.

Euro also on board with pop up storms, Monday and Tuesday

onward

With the low afternoon dewpoints, and high temps, that spread gives a lower relative humidity.

(localized factors will vary DP and RH with evapotranspiration in the peak heating)

RH off the ECMWF

Thats all courtesy of a strong 500mb ridge. Western US like

GFS with a 597
Euro reaching 600 decameters. It has backed off slightly

With the dry air, reel feel temps will not vary much midweek on from the actual ambient temp in the afternoons.

The dry air allows the max afternoon temps to heat up more efficiently vs the typical humid air masses we get with summertime heat. The more water molecules in the air, the more energy it takes to heat it up. The less water molecules in the air, the easier and faster it is to heat up. So, while numbers will potentially be higher than we’ve seen in potentially years, it really won’t feel any worse with the dry air. That said, it’s still hot.

With the ridge overhead, winds for the most part will be rather light all week. Perhaps stirring up at times during the afternoons. Or blow off from a few showers and storms. With the calm factor in place, as soon as the sun goes down, the valley areas will still cool off rather pleasant while the ridgetops remain 60s. I’d still expect 50s at nights, mid to late week across the high valleys, and potentially a upper 40 even in the coolest spots.

Weather Service Temps for Garrett County Airport.

June 15, 2024

June 15, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

June 15(Sat)

Lots of sun, cool start, pleasant day.

Bittinger 2NW Valley

rainfall .15 (from last evening)

Dyacon Data Below

Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley evening

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

7am to 7am data mmts coop BP

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • Site Comparison

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

June 14, 2024

June 14, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

June 14(Fri)

Clouds, sun with pm showers, storms

Bittinger 2NW Valley

rainfall + pm will be included in tomorrow’s tally

Dyacon Data Below

Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning
Bittinger 2NW Valley midday
Bittinger 2NW Valley midday
Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades evening

Garrett County Airport

Storm passing through

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

7am to 7am data mmts coop BP

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Atop Canaan Ski area

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

  • Site Comparison

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

June 14th, 2024

A look ahead to the incoming heat.The bogus readings that will be had during this time and the attempt to measure the accurate temperature. First a quick look at today and if we will see any storms and needed precip. The dry conditions will continue to worsen and that too aids in the high temperatures.

Latest from AI Elon

Later today we have cold front pushing in

Timing it out with the HRRR

SPC Severe Outlook

Outside of the areas that get under some storms, rainfall looks relatively light. If you’re under a storm or storms. Rainfall amounts of .5 to 1.00+ possible. Otherwise likely .25 or less in areas missing out.

In general we need some rainfall. While there has been a fair share of days with showers, for a month now, most of those have been relatively light. Yes. There are exceptions. Generally speaking things for the last month have been below normal rainfall wise.

A look at May 14th to June 13th departure

The year from January 1, leading up to May 13th, from Garrett County on north things were plenty wet

Year to date those areas still look fine in the grand scheme or what is expected since Jan 1. While the WV high ground remains well below normal.

The upcoming 2 weeks at the present time does not look very promising

The ECMWF(Euro) ensemble mean at 0z departures below

GFS ensemble below

Now, through the next 2 weeks with the heat coming in, there can be at times a buildup of slow moving drenching storms. That’s a bit of a relief temp wise, but also a much needed moisture bonus that many won’t see, at least as it looks now during the period.

After this great hay making period that’s been going on for most of the last week plus, the 2nd crop this season may be a slow go without some changes.

Current Soil Moisture Index

The already dry mouth and heat and continued dry weather will lead to some of these conditions worsening. At least potentially. Another vegetation response index. A vegetation stress factor .

Drought Monitor and expect this to expand with the next update

Area waterways running a bit low now.

Something that will come in to effect the next week to 2 weeks, even in areas that have done well so far is the EDDI(Evaporative Demand Drought Index)

Expected to see over the next 7-10 days +:

High temps ✔️

Low Precip ✔️

High Evapotranspiration ✔️ (which does help to keep temps in check somewhat)

This though can lead to the flash drought potential. Those ingredients are in play.

Conditions pleasant until Monday when both temps and dewpoints rise. Dewpoints however do not look to be horrendous the entire time. Lower dewpoints though actually enable the actual ambient air temp to be able climb a bit more efficiently. Moisture is a stabilizer. The less of it, the wilder the temperature swings.

Temp Anomalies off the Euro Ensemble next 10 days.

Models build a strong ridge over the mid Atlantic and northeast. 600 became decameter ridge by the Euro which is fairly rare, but not much different than any other major summer time ridge

The GFS similar at 6z

Go back and look for hot periods. One example of many. 1953. Simply how you develop record heat with some duration across the Mid Atlantic.

Right now, your phone apps go bonkers with numbers as they are direct output from modeling. They are not forecasted with any type of climatology involved.

The Weather Service numbers reflect reality a bit better

again a forecast. It’s pretty rare to exceed 86° in many areas in the Alleghenies. AHS heat zone map, while generalized reflects that threshold well and many years, plenty of locations remain below 85°. Spruce Knob never touched 80 last summer. I do think that next week even on top will crest 80. Terrain, evapotranspiration/forested areas play a big role in that.

other numbers for next week. From the GFS Mos that does incorporate climatology . Further out more variability will play in to numbers. Focus within the 7 day window

and the blended model in that ball park

Expect towns, any localized UHI(urban heat island) impact to crest 90. Even in the high ground. Without a doubt, a area like Mchenry is warmer today than 50 years ago for that reason alone. It’s much more minimal effect vs large cities but anywhere you start laying pavement and building, localized temp impacts exist.

The typical hot areas like Cumberland, Petersburg, Morgantown, expect to see some legit 95-102 temps next week.

Which brings us to readings. How to get a accurate temperature. Backyard thermometers, car thermometers, bank thermometers are highly impacted during these hot sunny periods. You will be seeing pictures like this

John will say, it was 100 degree yesterday, Mike will comment I had 121 when I left the store this afternoon

Now was it 100 where that sensor is placed at the bank getting all the radiation feedback from the artificial surroundings. Some of those bank sensors are a foot off the ground, some are a foot from concrete, metal etc. Those objects get hot, much hotter on a hot sunny day vs the actual air temp and that air gives the bogus reading. No different in a car. You go in the store awhile. All the heat buildup on the pavement, trapped under your car, heating your car, your car may already be hot from driving. It’s reads way hotter than the actual temperature. As you drive away, it will come down and may come close in line with reality, but you’re still driving over pavement (likely, not always) with a heated object. With good air flow from driving through, it helps alot.

Then we move to the case of the backyard thermometer. The key is good air flow, in a protective radiation shield, away from houses, eaves(even shaded eves heat up) rooftops are to be avoided, decks. Even smaller radiation shields on a hot sunny day are impacted when properly sited.

Various shields are available online. They often look like

This one is a really good design that supposedly gives good results. Pricey. It’s made by Barani.

Then the MMTS shield that NWS issues to their observers. The standard.

Some coops still use the old CRS(Cotton Region Shelters) locally the Savage River observer does

You’ll want your thermometer around 6 foot above the surface. Why, the surface gets much hotter. Illustrated below

NWS guidelines. If you go to the trouble of gathering data, go to the trouble of gathering as accurate as data as possible.

Even when all these factors are perfect, some error can still exist. Some personal stations are mechanically aspirated which aids in keeping a good air flow moving across the sensor. The Virginia Tech stations use a mechanically aspirated Apogee brand shield and if you want some good messages on this type of thing, Bruce Bugbee of Apogee does a excellent job

Getting a accurate temp is not always easy. Getting one in hot weather gets even a bit harder. The objective is though, to have data on a equal playing field to compare. That’s why there are guidelines.