Drought Update, and the upcoming relief

July 19, 2024

The continued above average temps and dry weather continued in to this week, with some slight relief beginning on Wednesday. Some rainfall occuring across the area in what had been a very dry first half of July on the heels of a very dry June and second half of May.

The previous 5 day rainfall ending 7/18.

Rainfall amounts the past 5 days

Garrett County Md

Bittinger 2NW Valley .38
Cherry Creek at State Park Rd USGS 1.20 – not the best sited gauge. This location was however in the storm Wednesday evening https://youtu.be/10kiKQEneuQ?si=CzoKYdYa-tt2EM1G
Sines Deep Creek Coop 1.20- also in that heavier Wednesday round
Mchenry 4.8SE cocorahs .54
Grantsville 2.0ESE cocorahs .32
Savage River Dam .51

Allegany County Md

Frostburg Coop .16
Cumberland Coop .31

Somerset County Pa

Somerset Coop .94
Berlin 3.1NW cocorahs 1.11
Laurel Summit Coop .90
Mt.Davis PSU Mesonet .65

Tucker County Wv

Davis 3SE Coop 1.16
Canaan Valley Coop .89
Blackwater Gauge-Davis USGS .46
Canaan Valley State Park USCRN .59
Cabin Mt-Western Sods-Virginia Tech .66
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob-Virginia Tech .45

Grant County

Bayard Coop .30
Maysville IFlows .31
Petersburg ASOS .15

Preston County

Mountain Dale Iflows .44
Cadell Mountain Iflows .36
White Ridge Iflows .52
Terra Alta 4.9NE cocorahs 1.12
Terra Alta 0.4E cocorahs .47
Bruceton Mills 9.3SE(Big Bear) cocorahs. 82

Randolph County

Elkins Jennings-Randolph Field. 32
Beverly CWOP .80

Pendleton County

Spruce Knob Iflows and Virginia Tech both at .28
Judy Gap CWOP .28
Kile Knob Iflows .96

Pocahontas County

Cass 3.7SE cocorahs .41
Snowshoe CWOP .78
Black Mt Iflows .76
Bartow 1S Coop .18

Some haves and have nots, but at this point anything is better than nothing. As of Thursday Drought Monitor Update, areas along and east of the Alleghenies elevated to D3 drought status

State by State

Short Term Status

Soil Moisture Maps

The drought again really began Mid May and data and maps display quite well

30 days percent of normal

60 days percent of normal

90 day percent of normal

and the 180 day percent of normal which gets close to the first of the year and year to date totals really aren’t that bad. That does not though mitigate the short term dry/heat, evaporative demand combo

and you can see how around early June the drought conditions from the previous dry week began to set in

Up through May 15th year to date precip departures. Things were looking good from the Mason Dixon and north.

-May 15 to July 18

-Breaking it down from 2nd half of May, June, and now in to July

May 15-May 31 Precip Departure

June 1 to June 30 Precip Departure

July 1 to July 18 Precip Departure

Year To Date Departure. As you get near and north of the Mason Dixon year to date isn’t all that bad. Even above normal precip as you go north. Even though those locations have dried out in recent weeks and with above normal temps, evaporative demand, dry conditions set in rapidly.

Year to date Precip

that data is developed from

area locations:

Bittinger 2NW Valley 32.45

Last year, year to date I stood at 28.38. The impacts of how and when the lack of moisture occurs is huge.

Other sites

Somerset Coop up 4″ year to date vs last year

Laurel Summit, down 3″ vs last year but above normal season to date

Davis 3SE , less than .3 separation vs last year year to date.

Bayard , up over 2″ vs last year

The period Jan 1 through May 15 this year

Last year

from May 15 through July 18th this year

Last year

Dry both years, as the drought monitor indicates

Not as extreme as this year

Last year’s temps for the period May 15 to July 18

May 2023

This May

Last June

This June

Last July

This July

Last year my summer max temp was 82.6°at Bittinger 2nw Valley, this year I’ve exceeded 82.6° 11 times, with a max of 86.9° . Nearly all area stations running well above typical “hot” days.

The combo of heat, and dry weather takes a toll on vegetation. One noticeable change occuring in recent weeks locally in Garrett County has been the drought, heat stress on yellow birch.

Below is from the Carmel Cove area in Garrett County. Also seen in many other areas with yellow birch. Areas along water ways that are typically moister and cooler at nights have escaped this. Other tree species at both higher and lower elevations will show drought and heat stress of variability based on species and tolerance.

For July 18th, that’s a product of drought/heat stress that isn’t typical, but at the same time is very much in line with year to year weather variability.

others at lower elevations

Sycamore near Hancock MD

Hillside at Lavale

Waterways are very low across the region

Bittinger 2NW Valley

May 15 below

June 16th below

July 18th Below

Will we see continued impacts or will things gradually improve.

The climate prediction centers sees improving drought conditions

In the near term modeling brings hope, as it has in recent weeks that’s failed, with the bit of help this past week. Thats a start. Very common dry leads to more dry, and wet weathers leads to more. Once you lose surface moisture, you lose more evaporation, evapotranspiration, you hinder the typical pop up storms, showers that are often a frequent summer water source.

Now this week we made a gain with moisture and that accompanied with a slight pattern shift, wetter and more seasonable times look to lay ahead. Which we desperately need the moisture.

Here’s the 6z GFS precipitation outlook next 10 days

the 10 day anomaly with normal to above

The 0z ECMWF (Euro)

the 10 day anomaly , above normal

Temps for the period off the Euro ensemble , showing a much more seasonal outlook . It’s summer, so its still warm. Don’t let blue colors lead you to think chilly, it’s normal vs the average for the time of year.

The Euro Weeklies 46 day outlook , this comes with high variability and greater error as we go out in time

and when temps overall are average in a wetter pattern, that can often mean daytime maxes are held in check and nighttime mins may be held up a bit for periods. The 46 day precip anomaly off the Euro weeklies