Drought Update July 26, 2024

Drought Monitor update through the 23rd, released on the 25th.

While there has not been much change in the overall drought monitor since the last update on July 16th, this drought update, the data is complete through July 23rd.

In that period, the overall pattern saw more moisture, more cloud cover, cooler temps vs the first half of July. A start to what is hopefully a continued climb back out of the impacts of the current drought situation.

While more rainfall has been present in many locations, much of the rainfall that did occur, occured in downpours. Which does limit the beneficial impacts. With a hard pack soil, heavy rain rates, leads to mostly runoff. We saw that in areas this week. That is however, much better than that the limited moisture we had been seeing.

Let’s start with rainfall over the 10 day period from July 16 to July 25.

• Accumulation for the period

• Departure from average for the period. Note many areas closer to average for the period, with some just above and some just below. The area south of Bittinger to the Deep Creek area stands out. The USGS station at Cherry Creek, State Park Rd showing that well.

• Month accumulation to date

• Month Departure

Some area locations:

GARRETT COUNTY MD

• Bittinger 2NW Valley July 16th through the 25th 1.58. Bringing the July tally to 2.36″ month to date. The old Bittinger Coop that ran from 1953 to 1975 by Elbert Buckel, in those 22 years only recorded a lower amount one time. The station began though following 2 extremely dry July’s in 51′, and 52′.

Glade Run at Bittinger 2NW Valley the 16th, 22nd, 25th. The rise with the 22nd rain event runoff, then the fall, but still a bit improved vs the 16th.

• The USGS gauge, State Park Rd at Cherry Creek. This location ended up getting under 2 of the stronger downpours that occurred in 2 separate occurrences. The 16th and 23rd. Coming in at 2.98 for the period, one of the higher readings County wide. 3.59″ on the month. .61 through the first 15 days, 2.98 last 10.

That’s led to some improvement in stream flow, with the spikes occuring shortly after the 2 most significant rain occurrences.

ALLEGANY COUNTY MD

• Frostburg Coop from the 16th to 25th only .46 and .70 on the month. Only 1952 at .56 and 1929 at .59 are lower for the month in its entirety. That’s 1898 to present.
• Cumberland Coop from the 16th to 25th at .84 and .97 on the month. From 1891 to present July’s that ranks 10th lowest. In 1911 only .39 fell for the month. 1983 saw .54, 1930 saw .58. 1999 at .69, 1909 at .77, 2011 at .81, 1929, 1987, 1991 all at .88

SOMERSET COUNTY PA

• Somerset from July 16th through 25th 1.64, month to date 1.88. Station years 1948 to present. 1.88 ranks 8th lowest.

1983 0.85 ,1975 1.24 , 1997 1.28 , 1966 1.38, 1999 1.60, 1965 1.77, 1973 1.79, 2024 1.88

• Confluence from July 16th to 25th .83, month to date 1.00. Station. From the stations history of 1946 to present, this is actually the lowest tally for July. Second place stands at 1.25 in July of 52′. So with 4 recording days left. Will we pick up .26 to move this year out of the driest slot. That chance will occur prior to 7am 7/31 when the months data is complete. Anything post 7am 7/31 will go in the August books. That’s the way 7am recording stations work.

TUCKER COUNTY

• Canaan Valley Coop from July 16th to July 25th 3.09, and 3.49 month to date . From 1944 to present that tally sits in 15th place.
• Blackwater Gauge at Davis, from July 16th to 25th 1.36, month to date 1.50. Current river flow is pretty typical of late July, thanks to more appreciable precip across the Blackwater headwaters areas vs the actual gauge site itself. The fickle summertime downpours impacting localized areas more than the widespread area. That said, still much improvement recent 10 days vs the first 16 of the month.

• Canaan Valley State Park, USCRN station from July 16th to 25th at 1.98, month to date 2.85. The station has 20 years of data and so this ranks the lowest. Not a long history.
• Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE from July 16th to 25th 2.83, with 3.18 on the month. The station has ran 02 to present, this sits as the 2nd driest July if the month ended today, behind 2018 that saw 2.86 total for that month.

GRANT COUNTY

• Bayard from July 16th to 25th, 1.53, month to date 1.96. From 1902 to present thats the 5th driest July

1946 1.16, 1953 1.35, 1952 1.66, 1987 1.92, 2024 1.96

RANDOLPH COUNTY

• Elkins Jennings-Randolph Field from July 16th to 25th 2.27, with 3.10 on the month. Station has ran 1926 to present, and the July tally this year sits in 17th driest.

POCAHONTAS COUNTY

• Snowshoe from July 16th to July 25th 1.53, with 2.02 on the month. From 1976 to present this ranks as the 2nd driest July, with 93′ at 1.57. It won’t take much by 7am 7/31 to climb out of the 2 spot since 76′

Ok, I think it’s a dry July has been established and some improvement since the 16th has been established.

The current state to state drought monitor and historical drought/wet fluctuations. This is too stress, these extremes create averages. There is NO normal. The word normal when used to describe a month or daily data is a way overused and misleading term.

(won’t include the short term drought monitor as it’s updated through the 18th)

The drought monitor change over the past week through the 23rd, held pretty much from the 16th

Our month to date temps

through last week at the 16th

through the 23rd.

• The last 7 days temps have came down to season daily averages, and that occurred mostly with slightly below max readings and slightly above mins. Through the very warm first 16 days, the Northern Canaan Valley station on the refuge had a daily min average of 47.2 during the hotter period, the most recent 9 days that average has climbed to 49.0 with the cooler pattern. More active, moist, cloud cover doesn’t allow the valley site to cool as frequently at night. So you could have a cool, wet cloudy summer and record much higher daily mins vs a hotter, drier, clear summer at these types of locations.

Looking ahead

1- More potential moisture to start next week. Model output varies.

Through Wednesday 7am. This is the period of whatever falls that would be included in July’s 2024 data at area coops

0z ECMWF

6z GFS

The 6-10 day NOAA outlook. Modeling really has backed off of this look. While it has moisture, it’s not as promising looking as NOAAs outlook.

• The upcoming month outlook off the Euro Weeklies offers continued hope.

• The Euro control run attempting to sniff at a tropical system. That’s why it’s went bonkers on the month precip anomalies

One of these systems would aid greatly in a reversal of what we’ve been in.

• Temps

Next 10 days. Euro ensemble slightly above normal. Notching it back up slightly from the previous week, but not to the levels earlier this month. Our average max temps once we crest late July/early August begin to slowly drop. That does not mean abnormally warm periods can occur thereafter.