Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley eveningUp from Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
Garrett County Airport
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Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
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Atop Canaan Ski area
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Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
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Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
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Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Missed opportunities were the theme of this week as the Alleghenies remain well below normal in terms of precipitation. The remnants of Beryl passing by north as seen below on the previous 3 day precipitation amounts
and now adding insult to injury, some hefty rains passing by east upcoming through tomorrow morning as modeled below off the Euro.
Leaving us missing out on 2 golden opportunities to put a dent in the current rainfall deficit.
So far July is starting out dry and as we push halfway through the month. With most areas falling well under a inch month to date. Some areas under a tenth. July deficits through the date-
The lack of rain though has been ongoing since around mid May when things really began drying out.
since May 15th at Bittinger 2NW Valley I’ve seen 4.92″
other areas since May 15th, with comparisons to other years
Cassleman Gauge at Grantsville 4.23″
At Bayard 7.59″
Elkins 5.37
Frostburg 3.53
Savage River Dam 4.17
Davis 3SE (Canaan Heights) 6.98″
Canaan Valley
Blackwater Gauge at Davis 6.16″
All of these numbers running well below the average for the period
60 day Anomalies
60 day percentage of normal
Temps the previous 60 days overall running above normal
Since July 1
Below normal precip, above normal temps has continued to worsen the current drought situation. As of July 9th the:
Drought Monitor now looks like
state by state
4 Week Evaporative Drought Demand
Soil Moisture
Stream Flow
Glade Run near Bittinger. Many area waterways running low.
From a historical perspective, this pattern has repeated itself many times. We are in a period of time where every event is hyped as “worst ever, driest ever, wettest ever, hottest ever, etc”. It’s simply a product of a pattern that’s occured before, will occur again. With weather there are averages. Not normals. Normal is the worst word ever to describe what should happen any given day, month, year. Our averages are made up of extremes. For a historical perspective let’s look at the long running Drought Severity index
This for the Allegheny Region of Wv
July
August
That’s pretty dang consistent.
Summertime precip (June-Aug)
Pretty consistent on the ebbs and flows of wet,dry,wet,dry.
With more hot weather ahead , and for the most part dry through Sunday, the current conditions will likely get a bit worse before they get better.
The potential outlook as we get through this next bout of heat that goes in to next week is, as it passes, we see a increased storm risk. Yes, storms often generally produce a lot of runoff with the ground this hard, but anything is better than nothing. That’s the initial potential and a bit further out as we go to the last 3rd of July, the ridge looks to build in the west and that leaves the mid Atlantic and southeast with a bit more low pressure and cooler conditions. That’s at least a hint on modeling for now. These dry patterns often are hard to get rid of. Dry breeds dry. Dry also aids in heat.
In terms of heat. As it’s been above normal. Again, from a historical perspective. This is not viewed in a lense of, it’s never been this bad. We are not even close to some of the recorded hottest periods recorded locally.
Let’s hop back to some incredibly hot summers. The hottest period on record for many area stations occured in August of 1918. The 7 day Avg Max Temp at Frostburg was a whopping 97.5
at Cumberland 103! Also tied in July of 1936 we’ll get to in a sec
To note, I am not positive of the daily recording time. It may have been 5pm to 5pm recording station. If that’s the case, that’s why you see a double 109, 101. In these cases that does impact the 7 day avg max. That would take some more digging in to.
the original form
I do believe that’s 5pm, some of the prior month forms appear to be 5. So, this does throw some issues in compiling data, max,mins. Now days most coop stations are 7am recordings. In which come transitional and winter seasons, daily mins are often duplicated. It presents a challenge if you want to compare. At any rate, that period of heat is impressive!
Oakland
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the period in maps
as a impressive of a heat dome as you’ll get!
in 1936, July
Grantsville
Westernport
Bayard
a intense week but less impressive vs 1918. The intensity centered west initially
The longterm Summertime Temp trends (Jun-Aug)
Garrett County
Bayard Summers
This season overall avg stands at 66.3. The variable is recording time/site change which is nearly impossible to dissect that variable.
Looking ahead
euro 7day temp Anomalies. Showing a reprieve after this next 5 day period
Breezy, mainly cloudy. More sun as you go south of Garrett County. Pleasant day. Felt a world different vs yesterday
Bittinger 2NW Valley
rainfall .02
Dyacon Data Below
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning West of Bittinger morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley midday Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley midday Bittinger 2NW Valley middayRock Lodge Rd near The Glades middayRock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Garrett County Airport
By Garrett College morningCherry Creek at Mosser Road morning Mchenry morning Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek morning Deep Creek Lake late morning
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Late day
Atop Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
a bit of low moisture early a.m after Daylight in spots not picked up by radar.
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Lots of sun. Some clouds. Showers mainly east. Strong southerly winds. A rare component of strong south winds and 80+ high ground. Cold front through later in the day with clouds, and winds shifting west. Turning cooler vs the days maxes and lowering DPs.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip T-brief sprinkle
Dyacon Data Below
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning West of Bittinger morning Old Cherry Glade Church morning By old Cherry Glade Church morning- red spruce full of cones Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
Garrett County Airport
State Park Rd morning Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morning
Top of Wisp
Afternoon
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Atop Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
GFS did terrible today
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Clouds and sun, high clouds at times and showers and storms also in a few areas. View radar for that.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
Dyacon Data Below
–Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning-daisy and elderberry bloomsBittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley evening West of Bittinger evening
Garrett County Airport
–Cherry Creek at Mosser Road morning By Garrett College morning Mosser Rd morning Deep Creek Lake morning Glendale Rd afternoon Glendale Rd afternoon – Red TailGlendale Rd afternoon –Katy-Did
Top of Wisp
Rooftop Station. Lack of wind today, greater impactsAfternoon Evening
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Atop Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
K2g4-Garrett County Airport with some reporting issues
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
A good deal of sun, some clouds, some high cloudiness as well at times. A few showers east side of the Alleghenies and those were very limited.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
Dyacon Data Below
Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
Garrett County Airport
Raily cam a.mState Park Rd morning Deep Creek Lake morning Glendale Rd morning
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
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Atop Canaan Ski area
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Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
*these hot sunny day and the open grassy area in and around the station turning brown will aid in the temps running a bit hotter–
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Dry conditions began developing back in mid to late May and worsened with the above average temps, and continued dry weather in June. Now we are in to July and while localized areas have seen some much needed rainfall over the last week, most of the area is still very much in need of rainfall. Outside of the hit and miss storms, that has been about all the area has seen.
June rainfall
rainfall tallies on the month sitting in the 2-3″ range for a good portion of the Alleghenies. Some locations, especially Tucker County picked up some much needed rainfall right at the end of June to help those numbers out. Often, those localized rains come in rapidly, fall on dry, hard soil and runoff vs the majority soaking in and it’s not as helpful as rainfall tallies would indicate.
Those June numbers running below normal in spite if those localized tallies
This on the heels of a dry May that saw below normal precipitation
since May 15th departures look like
from January 1 through May 15th departures looked like
from Garrett County and areas north, above average precipitation had been the theme. So the short term drought conditions are much worse overall than the long term.
year to date for 2024
1/1 to 7/5 at Bittinger 2NW Valley I’m at 31.73″ of precip. That’s combined rainfall-snow/sleet/freezing rain melt.
at this point in 2023 I was at 26.21″. While
However June of 23′ saw 5.67″ as June of 24′ saw 2.71″. Since May 15th through July 5th 4.60, last year 6.57. Still, below last year for the period, but better. A development of drought occurs much more rapidly under these above average temps, peak daylength, vegetation growth, etc.
The current U.S drought monitor
state by state
A great example and impacts on the short term, thanks to the time of year, hot weather
Our last 60 day %of normal, which similar to some of the maps further above
Soil moisture conditions
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Our past weeks precip below
Again, some areas getting some much needed rain, and often a lot of this occurs so rapidly with storms, it ends up being mainly runoff
So, Ok, it’s dry. That’s established. What is ahead in the near term? Any hope?
Not much in the front several days, but as we go towards mid next week there is some potential hope that some of the moisture from the remnants of Beryl get caught up in the pattern and can provide some beneficial moisture.
Yesterday’s 12z ECMWF looked a little more promising than this mornings 0z
now this mornings 0z
and the 6z GFS
The system looks to come inland and just get absorbed in to the overall pattern and the determination on the precip path will be where the stationary boundary lays the moisture will run along. Very possible the moisture is held west by the strong ridge that remains in the Atlantic forcing everything around the perimeter. That’s the first hope of anything beneficial and if that strikes out long range modeling at least for now hints at some beneficial moisture mid month and NOAA is on board
These patterns like we are in are not rare or uncommon. Wet seasons with above average precipitation and dry seasons with below average precipitation are how averages are made. There is NO normal. Normal is a very over used word in terms of temperature and precipitation. Averages often have a wide range of how they have came to be.
The Palmer Drought Severity Index for late summer over the Wv Alleghenies over the years as compiled by NOAA
Summer precipitation(June-Aug)
Often when we are dry, or wet, there is often a lot of hysteria that things are not normal. Throw out the word normal , and look at the range that creates the “averages”.
Allegheny Mountains Weather 