Drought Update/July Recap

August 2, 2024

So far theme of the summer has been dry, with above average temperatures. Both of those conditions can enhance the other. July continued where June left off. Above average temperatures, below normal precipitation.

The first 2 weeks of July was the warmest period of the month with some modification to a more seasonal second half of July temperature wise. The first 2 weeks was also the driest period of the month, with some improvement the second half of the month. Not everyone saw the improvement. That’s typical nature of summertime precip with is often convective showers and storms vs any consistent widespread synoptic systems.

More details on those subjects below. First let’s look at the updated drought monitor based off data through July 30th and released on August 1st.

A look nationally below:

Now a look in to the Allegheny Region :

• State by State impacts and the 1 week change in drought category. Also included the historic drought perspective of the ebbs and flows of such occurrences

MARYLAND

• 1 week change below

• Historic Perspective

WEST VIRGINIA

• 1 week change below

• Historic Perspective

PENNSYLVANIA

• 1 week change below

• Historical Perspective

VIRGINIA

• 1 week change below

• Historical Perspective

• Drought progression over the weeks

That early July period with the above normal temps in the image below

and minimal rainfall the first half of the month

most areas a inch or less of rain, that accompanied by above average temps lead to rapid worsening of the drought conditions. Rainfall deficits the first half of the month

The 2nd half of July saw more in the way of seasonal July temps. The period from July 16 to the 31st below

Rainfall amounts the 2nd half of July in the image below

In most areas that’s improved vs the first 2 weeks. Still mostly below normal for the period. The worst of the conditions continued for the most part NE Garrett, and the east side of the Alleghenies and the drought monitor status indicates that. The rainfall deficit and in some localized cases surplus for the second half of July vs the average in the image below.

Most of the precipitation that does occur this time of year, convective in nature is rapid runoff, quick hitting shots, that do limit the effectiveness in enhancing soil moisture and improving overall drought conditions.

In spite of the dry conditions and lower soil moisture as seen below

Crops, such as corn across the high ground, seems to be holding its own very well

Not much afternoon shriveling/pineapple look. 2nd crops of hay are a slow go, but grass is remaining green across the high ground.

Since most 1st cuttings of hay, the lack of rainfall these last 2 months (June and July combo) is even more impressive

Total precip since June 1st through July 31st

If you overlap that drought monitor it lines up nicely

The departure vs average in precipitation since June 1st through July 31st

Now let’s hop to some local stations and look at comparisons in lack of moisture vs other dry June/July periods..

BAYARD

• Since 1902 this is the 6th driest July recorded at Bayard. Coming in at 2.19″

• The June/July combo precipitation. The 9th driest June July combo. Coming in with 5.78 over the 2 months. Some months of greater than 10 missed days of data were excluded

CANAAN VALLEY COOP

This includes Canaan Valley 1 and 2. Site location move, within a relative close proximity.

Precipitation this July. Coming in at 4″. Since 1945 that comes in as the 23rd driest July.

Canaan Valley 1

• The June/July combo. Coming in as the 18th driest combo since 1945 with 7.83″

Canaan Valley 1

DAVIS 3SE

• Since 2002 this coming in as the 2nd driest July at 3.82″

• The June July combo also coming in as the 2nd driest since 2002 at 7.80

Some past drier times predating the Canaan Valley Coop

CORTLAND

July of 1930 with only 1.61

That 1930 combo is also the lowest combo at

SNOWSHOE

• July coming in as the 7th driest since 1977 at 2.74″

• The June July combo coming in as 3rd driest since 1977 at 5.50(3 missing days)

back north

SAVAGE RIVER DAM

• Coming in as the 5th driest July since 1947 at 1.63″

• The June July combo coming in as the 5th driest as well at 3.58″. Since 1947

FROSTBURG

2 data sites for site relocation

• July coming in as the 5th driest July since 1898 at .97. A few missing years in the mix there.

site 1

• The June July combo coming in as the 3rd driest combo since 1898. Again a few missing years in the mix.

site 1

CUMBERLAND

2 data sets

July coming in as the 9th driest since 1891 at .97

site 1

• The June July combo coming in as the 4th driest since 1891 at 2.45″

site 1

SOMSERSET

• July coming in as the 12th driest since 1948 at 2.42″

• The June July combo coming in as 4th driest since 1948 at 4.18. There is quite a few missing years in the 80s,90s.

CONFLUENCE

• July coming in as the 4th driest since 1946 at 1.64

• The June July combo coming in as the 9th driest at 5.53″ since 1947

BITTINGER 2NW VALLEY

I came in July with 2.92″ of precip

looking back at the coop that ran 53-75, that’s 3rd driest out of that brief history

and the combo of June July I finished at 5.63″, 4th driest of that short history

MEAN TEMPS FOR JULY 2024

As you work east of the Alleghenies, not only has the area seen even less precipitation, the heat stress takes a toll on crops and vegetation more than across the high ground. Very visible if you are traveling from the high ground to the lower elevations

What will this do to leaf season across the Alleghenies remains to be seen. Leaf out was a bit early this year. Trees have been more stressed. That may cause some sensitive and typical early changers to change earlier, and less vibrant. Some drought intolerant yellow birch have already began a change in areas that sit elevated and dry out the most. She typical early changing maples in swampy areas have some hints of change. Which is typical of them as we get in to August.

What lays ahead as far as drought conditions

With convective action possible basically over the next week, it will provide improvement and relief for some, others will remain below average. Eyes will turn to a potential tropical system late next week as of now look to take most of the moisture to our east, but definitely worth watching.

NOW for the final extreme and not one most would think of when they think back to July 2024. Remember the month began with a frost in some of the coldest spots!

The coldest average July minimum temperature recorded in Canaan Valley was 48.6 in 1963

The Northern Canaan Valley station on the refuge came in at 48.5 this July.

To STRESS there is no comparison though here. By saying it’s technically the coldest min recorded in the valley for the month of July would technically be accurate. However, as most of the media does now days. They tell you want they want you to hear. They leave out major details. That major detail is, this station is sited in a colder night time location. Just as the original Canaan Valley coop was sited in a colder night time vs the current site. Back in 63′ when that 48.6 occured, had there been a station at the present day Northern. Valley location, you may had 43 or 44. This is on ways similar to so many today going by airport/ASOS max temp numbers. Those will often read higher by site location. Having data is good. But if you have data but unaware of the data’s origins, metadata you can come to very wrong conclusions or the very least, misleading conclusions.