Drought Update August 16th 2024

Through 2 weeks of August, and a big thanks to the remnants of Debby, many have seen their August rainfall tallies running at and above normal for early August. This on the heels of a dry July that did begin to see a bit of uptick from mid-month on vs what occured from early June through mid July.

Let’s look at the maps

The current drought monitor as of 8/13/24 and released yesterday

the 1 week drought monitor change

I’m a bit surprised the eastern Wv panhandle and eastern Allegany County in the update didn’t fall off to D-1. Many other locations from the Alleghenies east held status or improved.

Let’s take a look at those eastern areas quick from a few sources

Since the start of August

–

The eastern panhandle running in the 6-12″ range since the start of the month. That extends up in to Washington, eastern Allegany and portions of Bedford and Fulton counties.

Throwing the drought monitor overlay to start the month on, that Eastern zone of what was D3 was in the prime bullseye 🎯

As you worked west, rainfall tallies were dropping off, but still in the 1-4″ range.

That occured at rates, that saw quite a bit absorb in to the dry upper part of the soil, as well as some runoff that allowed for stream rises that only last a couple days before receeding to and below the typical mid August flow. Further east, streams above the typical mid August flow.

Drought Monitor State by State with historical county perspectives

MD

WV

PA

VA

In the big picture. Alleghenies –> east saw big improvements in conditions. Brown lawns, rapidly green and growing.

Cumberland

July 18th

August 15th below

and further improved as you head east.

From June 1 to July 15th rainfall across the area

At Bittinger 2NW Valley in that 45 day period I had recorded 3.43″

in the 30 day period of July 16 to August 14th I have recorded 5.09″

Around the area. Departures for the 30 day period of 7/16-8/14 generally teter just on either side of the average. Drought was already set in, so improvements are a slow process. Despite the hottest, driest period easing as we crested mid July

Soil moisture has improved since the start of the month

Where we were to end July:

Where we are :

In Summary

• Still dry, but improvement has occured.

Temperatures over the last 30 day period have eased back to more typical conditions of what you would find for later July through mid August.

CDAS Temp Anomalies for the previous 30 days:

August:

Last 7 days

Overall, August looks to remain pleasant. Lots of forecast to begin the month were not showing this for August and had the continuation of the hot weather. Which for the most part, has not been the case and over the next 10 days the ECMWF (euro) ensemble show temps remaining below the seasonal average

As does the GFS Ensembles

In the short term, some chilly air as we approach mid next week should present at least the possibility for some frost at the typical coldest microclimates.

As far as rainfall in the near term

next 10 days off the Euro ensembles. Holding near typical mid August precipitation. Better likelihood of above average precip for the period west.

and the GFS ensembles similar

Off modeling through Monday

With that, one wouldn’t expect much of a change in the drought status with the coming week update. With the exception of some locations west. Beyond 10 days, hints of dry weather continue.

Entering fall, which is typically the driest time of year across the higher Alleghenies. Remember meteorological Fall starts in 2 weeks. Going in to the typical dry season, on the dry side may definitely have a impact on

• Foliage
• Stream levels
• Fall warm spells can be aided by a lack of moisture.
• Increased fire threat.

Tropical systems, and or a pattern change can greatly benefit some of those concerns. The foliage situation is one now that’s beginning to get late in the game despite it being August 15th.

Typically the driest month in the Alleghenies is October. We all know though, there are plenty of Octobers that turn active, and with the tropical remnant threat a bit higher this season, that can throw averages out the window.

Fall droughts are more common and also less noticeable vs a early summer, to mid summer drought. Enviromental, vegetation water demand decreases as the growing season winds down.

Summer is typically the wettest time of the year across the higher Alleghenies. As you crest east that would be the spring season.

Most high elevation stations in the Alleghenies. The long running wettest month is June to July. Often the convective setups of warm, humid air masses fire up afternoon storms on a consistent enough basis.

This definitely was not the case this summer. In 2 weeks, a meteorological summer recap can be done. Showing where area locations stand for the 3 month period in terms of average temp, overall precip for the period vs the average.

In the meantime, we continue to watch the days shorten, the sun lowering in the sky. Equivalent to a mid April sun angle. While most of the Alleghenies are still in need of some good rainfall, one thing will be noticeable. Shorter days, cooler nights. If we remain dry, and get a few shots of dry Canadian air, our mircoclimates can really see some temps bottoming out. Night time mins in the teens can show up in September at the coldest microclimate locations. Hopefully though, we’ll see a turn to wet regime and flip the script on long running averages of wet summer, dry fall. But don’t count on it.