October 31, 2024

October 31, 2024November 2, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

October 31, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Oct 31(Thurs)

Cooler a.m valleys, a very mild Halloween. Sun, clouds.

Bittinger 2NW Valley

precip on the month 1.75

Dyacon Data Below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

on October 17th and Bear attack occurred at the station. All temp data loss since then

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

Site Comparison

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

–

Radar

Daily radar void. Occured after midnight

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Lavale area

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

Oakland

October 30, 2024

October 30, 2024October 31, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

October 30, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Oct 30(Wed)

Chilly a.m valleys, mild ridgetops leading to a mild fall day. Few high clouds

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Dyacon Data Below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

no data due to station bear attack

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Sang Run area

October 29, 2024

October 29, 2024October 30, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

October 29, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Oct 29(Tues)

Colder valleys to start, but not as cold as it’s been. Intervals of clouds and sun and a warm afternoon

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Dyacon Data Below

12 years ago this evening at that spot as Sandy changed to snow and hours later the tree destruction began

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

no data due to bear attack on station

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

October 28, 2024

October 28, 2024October 29, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

October 28, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Oct 28(Mon)

Cold valley start, pleasant fall day

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Dyacon Data Below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

no data due to Bear Attack on station

Snowshow

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Sideling Hill Creek at North craft

Town Hill

Polish Mt

Martin’s Mt to Rocky Gap

Cumberland to Lavale to Clarysville

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

Oakland

October 27, 2024

October 27, 2024October 29, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

October 27, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Dyacon Data Below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

no data due to bear attack on station

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Forecast mins vs reality

Overall a colder airmass in place, means the overall forecast won’t be as far off. If the ridges are modeled 30-35. Valleys still running 5-10 colder

Reality valley mid 20s.

Forecast

Reality, not as bad but 5-10 off valleys.

Forecast, actually a bit too cold

Reality

Ridgetop forecast cabin Mt 29

Reality wasn’t bad

Overall in a colder airmass, the forecast aren’t as far off. Still missing 5-10° + over the high valleys, but much better when the spread isn’t as great.

October 26, 2024

October 26, 2024October 27, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

October 26, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Dyacon Data Below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

temp data down due to bear attack on station

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High,High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

A quick look at Snowshoe COOP data. Which has issues. NWS is looking in to it.

Lets look at the data

At first glance, you notice a lot of duplicate mins. That’s often normal with a.m reporting coops. One cold min will frequently be the coldest number 5am to 5am at the Snowshoe coop. That’s not the issue here.
Issue 1- these mins are much colder vs reality. The air masses have not supported mins this cold at 4800′

A quick comparison to the close by CWOP G1472 at 4540′ at Snowshoe.

Look at those mins. They also run similar to Spruce Knob mins

Yes G1472 is at Snowshoe at 4540′ in spite of the Slatyfork name.

To further back this up. Let’s look at the modeled 850s the last few mornings

850 temps are a great way to predict the Wv high ground temperatures.

24 hour min at 5am 10/22 and 5am cwop temp. Coop 24 hr min was 37, Cwop 56 at 5am with a min of 51

24 min temp reported on 10/23 at 5am. 33 at the coop. This did not occur at 4800′ and the 5am temp at the CWOP 53, min was 49

24 hr min at the coop on 10/24 is shown as 46. But it’s using the wrong min of 33 yesterday morning. Which is was not 33 at 5am, but it’s duplicating it for the 24th min despite a 5am report of 46. Now this morning was windy. At 5am, windy, near 4800′, it should be running colder than the 4540′ cwop. This is making me wonder if the station was moved to a lower elevation.

on the 25th the 24hr min showing as 27! You know where it got cold at on Friday morning. The valleys. Most valleys were 20s Friday morning, the 25th

but at 5am look what the 24 hour min shows at the coop

Now go back up and look at those 850 temps which are modeled very well and a great indication of high ground temps. They support near 40 Thursday a.m, near 50 Friday a.m. At no point 20s or even mid 30s over the high ridges.

as we jump to this morning

there that 5am temp with cloud cover and wind is colder again at 4540 vs 4800. Now it’s showing the 24 hour min of 48, but it wrong again carried over the 27 from Friday which was also wrong unless the sensor is off or the station was moved to a lower elevation site.

Now look at snowfall data. Only .1 recorded with no snow cover ever reported this month. You know where that would have occured that way. The valley

on top the 15th

on top the 16th

on top the 17th

on top the 18th

on top the 19th

it’s either

Observer temp reporting errors

Sensor has gone astray

The station site has moved.

The data is not accurate and the last few years Snowshoe has had many data obs issues

October 25, 2024

October 25, 2024October 26, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

October 25, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Dyacon Data Below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

temp data remains down due to Bear attack on station

Snowshoe

This data is currently much more accurate than what is coming out of the COOP site

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Everett/Breezwood area

And once again forecast vs reality.

A repeated theme of the week

Forecast was 35 for me. The initial forecast was a touch warmer than the update at 9:18pm. Which was still to warm. A forecast of nearly everyone above freezing on a calm, clear nights with low dewpoints in late October is nothing short of absurd and unaware of climatology.

forecast of 36 at Canaan Valley was further absurd

reality was

Bittinger 2NW Valley 25

Other areas in the valley around 20. Including the coop at 20. 16 below forecast.

forecast of Davis 35

reality was mid 20s

forecast of Elkins 35

reality….maybe a 7 degree missed call is a win

colder valleys occuring area wide

Modeling is capable of indicating the actual mins area wide. But you CAN NOT use modeled 2m temps and that is done over and over.

look at this TV station predictor for 7am this morning . A routine 15° off in these setups nearly every single time and it makes me wonder. Are actual obs observed?

Not a pat on the back. But many years now seeing this and doing this. You learn modeling DOES NOT give you the numbers, you must use DP for valleys when conditions are calm, clear. Often subtract several for coldest locations. And lean towards 850s for ridgetops.

October 24, 2024

October 24, 2024October 25, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Oct 24(Thurs)

After brief showers last night with cold front, skies broke through this morning into clear skies by midday

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Precip .16

Dyacon Data Below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

temp data down due to bear attack

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Void today. A bit of moisture behind the front last last just beyond midnight. Included in yesterday’s radar view

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Oakland

To Cranesville

To Sang Run

Grantsville to Savage Mt

Frostburg

Clarysville to Lavale to Cumberland

Rocky Gap /Martin’s Mt

Polish Mt-15 Mile Creek

Town Hill

October 23, 2024

October 23, 2024October 23, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

October 23, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Oct 23(Wed)

Colder a.m Valleys, mild day. Some clouds late. A little breezy.

Bittinger 2NW Valley

The Glades

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Bear Manage, bent the shield over, broke cable

–

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High,High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Oakland

Accident

Near The Mason Dixon Line

Forecast vs Reality

So Garrett County, expecting only 45-55°

Reality

DAVIS Forecast min was 49
reality

Canaan Valley Forecast

Reality

Elkins Forecast

Reality

other temps around

The last 5+ days forecast mins have been well off of reality. No correction. The same setup. The same repeated forecast with the same results. Modeling parameters not using the 2m modeled temps does (DP, Wind,Sky Cover, 850 temps) shows the setup well.

Fall Foliage

Maps are as accurate as a winter forecast 6 months out

these areas indicated by peak are no where even remotely close to still being peak and some of that peak area is heavy maple zones that have been past peak for 3-4 weeks!

October 22, 2024

October 22, 2024October 23, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

October 22, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Oct 22(Tues)

Colder a.m valleys, mild ridges, a very mild fall day. Lots of sun.

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Dyacon Data Below

The Glades

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

data down

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Oakland

This morning mins once again well off of forecast

Forecast min Davis 49

Reality 12-13° off. That’s in town. Where people live.

My site and area wide

Reality 37.6, The Glades 31.4 , so the valleys colder 30s. Ridge tops warmer. The forecast number occured for minimal locations. So 10-18° colder valleys or 10-15° warmer ridgetops. Forecast ranges of 5° on calm clear nights is nothing short of absurd

Elkins, this number not as bad

The northern valley microclimate which is rarely accurate.. forecast min 48°

Reality 26.6. Only 21-22° off.

AND modeling parameters not using the 2m output model this very very well.