October 19, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Oct 19(Sat)

Clear, cold valley start. Pleasant mild day

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

• Pics by Dawn Vandevander

• Webcam

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

• Temp data still down

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

• Site Comparison

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Now…..

• This is not necessarily a rant, although it’s going to sound like one. The absolute lack of detail on these overnight temperature forecast by the public weather services, TV networks is nothing short of being absent when it comes to looking at observations.

This example occurs so many times, but let’s look back at my post from October 9th.

This is not me being smart. The models do all the work. This is being observant to reality and being observant to model parameters that DO NOT include modeled 2m temperatures because THEY DO NOT WORK. Over and over and over and over again this same fail occurs and it’s repeated again and again.

Let’s look at this. This is not picking on any one outlet. Here’s the simple 2m mesoscale models putting out temps for a local TV outlet for this Saturday October 19th

45 degree for Davis to start this Saturday. Now what was reality

Davis began in the 20s. If you planned on a mild 45, 20s were quite different.

Here’s my post from yesterday morning that was repeated frequently this week on the page

Modeling has the details needed to make a forecast, but you CANT use the modeled 2m temps.

The weather service

That area in north central Garrett County. Holding 40s overnight. That’s the upper cassleman high valley between Negro and Meadow Mt and holds some of the coldest mins under radiational cooling nights in the county! Reality

In that zone you had 20s! The Glades data to be gathered will be low 20s. Most all valley and high open areas below freezing. Ridgetops 40s. People live in the valleys. So you would have expected 40s, and had a hard freeze this morning. This would not be expected by those terrible forecast. Most folks in these areas know to ignore forecast and there’s no reason forecast need to be this bad in these setups. Sorry for the rant, but it’s frustrating to repeatedly see.

On top the comet visible again tonight….