October 21, 2024

October 21, 2024October 22, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

October 21, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Oct 21(Mon)

Clear, cold valley start, mild ridgetops. A warm pleasant fall day.

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Dyacon Data Below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Temp data remains down

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

Site Comparison

Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Northcraft

To Town Hill

Green Ridge

Polish Mt

Martin’s Mt to Rocky Gap

Cumberland to Lavale to Clarysville

Frostburg

Savage Mt to Grantsville

Oakland

Cranesville

Sang Run

Continued poor min temp forecasting

min forecasted of 41

Reality 8-14° off, I had 33, 27 the Glades and many valleys in the 30-35 range. The ridgetops 13° warmer

Elkins forecast

Reality

Davis Forecast low 41

Reality around 30°. 11° under forecast.

October 20, 2024

October 20, 2024October 21, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

October 20, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Oct 20(Sun)

Cold valley start, much colder than forecast. Pleasant sunny fall day.

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Dyacon Data Below

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

station temp data down

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

And back to these poor forecast under calm, clear, dry air masses especially with less foliage and longer nights

From Sterling

I should be expecting mins in the 40s

Reality

I had 29.

Mt Lake Park, Lock Lynn Heights, populated areas 10 degrees off .

Even worse. Local TV outlets that just buy modeling.

41 for Oakland, 48 for Davis..49 for Elkins. We done seen the Oakland area is well off. Even further off is Davis

Just 12° off NWS, 20° off Tv outlet. For a forecasted number that is easily forecasted NOT using modeled 2m temps. If you consistently wake up and look at obs and continue to use a failed product. Any thoughts of change. If conditions are set up for radiational cooling. Dewpoints for valleys. 850s for ridges.
let’s look at Elkins. That forecast had 49° Sunday 7am

and pws sites

Now most folks in these areas know how this works. 20° off on a forecast. Totally ignoring the model fails at this and repeatedly using it, brings what service to the 7,000 people in Elkins?

And as I write this post, we are in for a repeat failure tonight.

October 19, 2024

October 19, 2024October 20, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

October 19, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Oct 19(Sat)

Clear, cold valley start. Pleasant mild day

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Pics by Dawn Vandevander

Webcam

Canaan Valley Refuge

Dave Carroll with station maintenance at the site today

Mt.Davis

Temp data still down

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Now…..

This is not necessarily a rant, although it’s going to sound like one. The absolute lack of detail on these overnight temperature forecast by the public weather services, TV networks is nothing short of being absent when it comes to looking at observations.

This example occurs so many times, but let’s look back at my post from October 9th.

This is not me being smart. The models do all the work. This is being observant to reality and being observant to model parameters that DO NOT include modeled 2m temperatures because THEY DO NOT WORK. Over and over and over and over again this same fail occurs and it’s repeated again and again.

Let’s look at this. This is not picking on any one outlet. Here’s the simple 2m mesoscale models putting out temps for a local TV outlet for this Saturday October 19th

45 degree for Davis to start this Saturday. Now what was reality

Davis began in the 20s. If you planned on a mild 45, 20s were quite different.

Here’s my post from yesterday morning that was repeated frequently this week on the page

Modeling has the details needed to make a forecast, but you CANT use the modeled 2m temps.

The weather service

That area in north central Garrett County. Holding 40s overnight. That’s the upper cassleman high valley between Negro and Meadow Mt and holds some of the coldest mins under radiational cooling nights in the county! Reality

In that zone you had 20s! The Glades data to be gathered will be low 20s. Most all valley and high open areas below freezing. Ridgetops 40s. People live in the valleys. So you would have expected 40s, and had a hard freeze this morning. This would not be expected by those terrible forecast. Most folks in these areas know to ignore forecast and there’s no reason forecast need to be this bad in these setups. Sorry for the rant, but it’s frustrating to repeatedly see.

On top the comet visible again tonight….

October 18, 2024

October 18, 2024October 19, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

October 18, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Oct 18(Fri)

Clear, cold start. Bit milder day under a very dry air mass

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Dyacon Data Below

The Glades

–

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Temp data is down

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport

Mt.Davis temps are down

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Cranesville

Oakland

Grantsville to Savage Mt

From Savage Mt, Sideling Hill and Bear Pond Mts in distance

Across Allegany County

Frostburg

Clarysville

Lavale

In to The Narrows

Rocky Gap to Martin’s Mt

Flintstone

Polish Mt

15 Mile Creek-Green Ridge

Town Hill

Piney Grove

Comet and moon

October 17, 2024

October 17, 2024October 19, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

October 17, 2024

Forest Service Cam offline since 6/24/21

Oct 17(Thurs)

Cloudy start, clearing skies

Bittinger 2NW Valley

Dyacon Data Below

–

Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades late morning

Bittinger 2NW Valley morning “low Beech always provide later good color”

Bittinger 2NW Valley “lots of hunting stories behind this old chair”

Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon 1 maple, a Beech, few oaks turning adding some illuminated color from the afternoon lower sun angle

Garrett County Airport

Top of Wisp

Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE

Climate Reference Network Canaan

Cabin Mt at Bald Knob

Cabin Mt-Western Sods

Spruce Knob

2 pics by Corrado Chi at Spruce Knob this morning

And webcam view towards Spruce Mt/Spruce Knob from SE

Canaan Valley Refuge

Mt.Davis

Snowshoe

Petersburg Grant County Airport

Elkins Airport

Site Comparison

The Valley vs Cabin Mt

Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis

Canaan area temps

High Ground Comparison

Up High and Down Low

Up High, High Valley, Low Valley

The Valleys

Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA

RTMA

Radar

void

Satellite

Flow

Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow

Cranesville

The Yough at Sang Run

Killington Vermont

OCTOBER 16, 2024 SPRUCE KNOB EDITION

October 16, 2024October 23, 2024 / alleghenymountainsweather / Leave a comment

October 16, 2024 Spruce Knob Edition

Temperature Data on the day:

The coldest max temp since 28.3° occured on April 6th.

Early morning atop Spruce Knob. Winds gusting out of the NW, snow showers and fog, temps in the 20s and the feel of winter spread across the high ground.

Overall, likely around 2″ had fell. Some melted, some blew away, some hung in the spruce and some was on the ground. No uniformity to accumulations on top.

The day began….

–

As daylight broke, some additional snow and rime were added overnight to the landscape.

Walking the loop around Whispering Spruce Trail……

Snow showers came and went through the early morning

–

At the top starting the descent:

–

Pulling off and heading up on the open meadow area just south of the summit. A very windswept blustery spot.

–

Continuing the drive down

A bit of color in a black in white world on top

Back to the western side. A touch more snow this morning on the descent than there was on the trip up last evening. Adding some white on the remaining fall color.