As we approach mid October, we hit the climatological average of first flakes across the Allegheny high ground and like clockwork mother nature and old man winter are on schedule.
So, to get there, we obviously need some cold air. Later Sunday, a cold front begins to set the stage
That cold front will come through with a threat of showers and storms. Some may contain gusty winds and hail. Not a widespread severe outbreak
That cold front itself is accompanied with and trailed by strong gusty winds in to Monday as colder air continues to push in on a west and eventually northwest flow.
Wind Gust off the 0z ECMWF. The ECMWF (euro) is a bit more impressive than other modeling. Starting the map at Sunday morning.
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Thats accompanied by colder temps aloft and at the surface.
•2m Temps off the 0z ECMWF below
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•The air aloft begins to support frozen precip across the WV high ground first. If there is enough precip left initially Monday evening.
Let’s look at the 850 temps. Essentially the Wv tops. This is the best method to forecast temperatures for those tops. Not the 2m temperature maps. They are not gridded on a scale to capture those areas the best.
•the 0z ECMWF 850 temps below. Essentially temps at 5000′
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• and a look at 6z GFS 850 temps
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When it’s precipitating across the high ground, your afternoon temperature DO NOT stray far from the 850 temperatures. The there is very limited diurnal impact. If you see temps at the surface trying to pop up above that 850 temp much…Boom, expect a snow shower to rapidly bring things back to equilibrium. So when you look at that, you expect afternoon temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday to run upper 20s, low 30s above 4000-4300′. Any rise to the mid 30s, rapidly knocked back.
Ok, let’s look at the precipitation type off the modeling.
•0z ECMWF below
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•6z GFS below
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It’s possible flakes and a coating could occur across the WV high ground Monday p.m, Tuesday morning. The better chance of whitening things up will occur through Tursday pm in to Wednesday.
Snowfall off modeling. Again everyone in the colored in parts of this map will not see accumulation. It’s not a mesoscale grid.
• 0z ECMWF
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•6z GFS
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Upslope zones
2500-3000′- coatings that rapidly melt off
3000-3500′- .5 to 1.5″
3500-4000′- 1.0 to 2.0″
4000’+ 1.0 to 3.0″
An example of how you may expect this to play out “IF” modeling holds as it currently looks. All dependent on how the piece of energy works out on Tuesday. In a marginal early season setup. Elevation is big.
A very often used, over used and always failed statement that’s repeated over and over and over.
The ground is too warm for snow to stick anywhere. When you get up in the Wv high ground, where air temps go below freezing, accompanied by 20-30mph+ winds. How long does it take to freeze the upper light uninsulated ground surface made up be fallen leaves, dead grasses, conifer needles, etc…getting that surface cold enough to stick with temps at and below freezing occurs rapidly. It’s only after you accumulate that the ground warmth in those locations have the melt from underneath impact as the snow begins to insulate that and let’s the ground temps melt. So, once things initially stick, limited melt until you get a bit of accumulation.
In areas with marginal low to mid 30s temps, lighter precip. Sure the ground temp+ air temp will rapidly melt whatever falls. It’s a different game early and late season across the highest locations in the Allegheny region. You can book learn until the cows come home, but getting out and experiencing, documenting first hand is a really good teacher in how that works.
Let’s see how things continue to evolve in this early season cold unstable incoming airmass. Changes can definitely occur and the setup falls apart some. Drier, etc
as of now liquid output Tuesday a.m to Thursday a.m, most of which would fall in snow form across the WV high ground with near and below freezing temps
•0z Euro
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•6z GFS
Ratios while not great, are also a bit better on top. 8-12 to 1. Lower during the day, bit better at night. Even with cloud cover, temps near freezing, accumulations will be more compact and be a bit sticky during the day, lighten up, lighter, powdery at night.
Anyways, not a big deal other than flakes and coatings potentially for most, across the WV tops a brief look of winter midweek. Do not go buy TP and bread.
West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger morning Glade Church morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon Foxtown Rd afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Towards Bowman Hill afternoon
The Glades
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Garrett County Airport
–Cherry Creek at Mosser Rd morning Mosser Rd morning Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morning Meadow Mt morning Deep Creek Lake morning Mchenry afternoon Cherry Creek at Mosser Rd afternoon
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
NCEI ASHEVILLE STILL EXPERIENCING ISSUES FROM HELENE AND DAILY CHART IS NOT AVAILABLE
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Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
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Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
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Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
void
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Temps last night rose predawn as winds picked up. Breezy, sunny day.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
Dyacon Data Below
–Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Foxtown Rd morning West of Bittinger morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon “sun making the last color glow”Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening West of Bittinger evening West of Bittinger evening West of Bittinger evening
Garrett County Airport
Cherry Creek at Mosser Rd morning Rock Lodge Rd morning Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morning
Top of Wisp
Evening
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
void
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Glade Church morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Towards Bowman Hill morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning “the group of Aspen just changing ” the other group bareWest of Bittinger morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon “sun reflecting off lingering birch standing out”Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon “birch, Beech, and a maple splashing some last color”Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Old Cherry Glade Church evening West of Bittinger evening West of Bittinger evening
The Glades
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Garrett County Airport
Mosser Rd morning Mosser Rd morning Cherry Creek at Mosser Rd morning Rock Lodge Rd morning Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake morning Deep Creek Lake afternoon Deep Creek Lake afternoon Mchenry afternoon
Top of Wisp
Afternoon
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
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Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
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Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
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Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Oakland
Cranesville
Lasting lingering color popped some and highlighted by the afternoon sun–––––
Storms early after dark last night, breezy today with sun, clouds and a period of building daytime clouds with the cold air aloft.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
rainfall .27
Dyacon Data Below
Towards Bowman Hill morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades afternoon Foxtown-Beachy afternoon West of Bittinger afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
Garrett County Airport
Rock Lodge Rd midday “lone Hickory standing out”Rock Lodge Rd midday Rock Lodge Rd afternoon State Park Rd midday Deep Creek Lake middayDeep Creek Lake afternoon Meadow Mt at Deep Creek State Park Deep Creek Lake afternoon Hammel Glade afternoon Mchenry evening Railey cam morning
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop BP
Climate Reference Network Canaan
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Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Canaan Ski cam
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
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Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Foliage- maples are well past peak. Birch well past peak. Gum well past peak. Beech near peak but not dominant species or vibrant. Hickory past peak, but ranging green to yellow, brown and drop. Locust green and brown. Oaks, a dominant species mostly green. So what you have now is a non vibrant coloring of what remains off the early color and green oaks and there really is not much Foliage to look at that makes you go wow.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
rainfall 0
Dyacon Data Below
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning Rock Lodge Rd at Beachy Rd morning Beachy Rd morning Beachy Rd morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Towards Bowman Hill morning
FOLIAGE COMPARISON
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The Glades
Just south of Bittinger
in large around The Glades, a large portion of the foliage is now down
Preliminary min, may update of the min prior to midnight falls lower. ––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––Hickory tree
Garrett County Airport
Mchenry morning Mchenry morning 219 by the lakeParadise Ridge morning Paradise Ridge morning Deep Creek Lake morning
Time-lapse
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop by
Climate Reference Network Canaan
message from NCEI below. Regular monthly chart will not be available for the CRN for awhile. That said no data is lost.
NCEI in Asheville has been significantly impacted by Hurricane Helene. We are working to resolve these issues as soon as possible. We apologize for any inconvenience
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
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Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Mt.Davis
Canaan area temps
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
void-no precip in the area
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Allegheny Mountains Weather 