Late Week Snow Potential November 21-23

6:41pm 11/18/24

NWS out with Winter Storm Watches for the highlighted counties below

A jump in to the late day model runs. Models coming in to some agreement as you’ll see below

First up the 18z GFS

12 ECMWF (Euro)

The initial changeover Wednesday night, Thursday morning is a very minimal aspect as far as snow goes. Some light coatings possible.

As this looks now. The Thursday pm snows look best towards the central and southern Alleghenies. South of Canaan or Canaan and south.

As you go towards the Mason Dixon the best snow period looks Friday or more Friday pmish in to the overnight.

Let’s look quickly at liquid equivalent off the models. From anytime after late Wednesday night/Thursday 12:00am this is snow fall across the high ground.

In the image below, the Euro through 10pm Wednesday. This is primarily rainfall. In general the model shows .3 to .4 precipitation has fell.

Let’s hop forward to 7am FridayBy this time. Modeling puts out only .1 to .2 additional liquid north since 10pm Wednesday. This precip will all be in the snow form across the high ground. It puts .3 to .4 south which again is all snow across the high ground.

Now from 7am Friday through early Saturday afternoon. 1.25 liquid to 1.5 liquid since 10pm Wednesday that will be in the snow form. Again, stressing these are modeled numbers. Not a forecast. That said the greatest precip/snow period looks Friday -early Saturday a.m for most with the Thursday period looking better south.

That was the Euro, now how about the GFS. (See below)

A bit less moisture on the front end off the GFS. At 5am Thursday and this all occured mainly as rainfall. The GFS has put out .15 to .30 area wide.

Let’s jump to 7am Friday .1 to .3″ additional liquid north(in the form of snow though) .5 to .7 south since 5am Thursday. So the early outlook is the first part of this event is more impressive south vs north and that’s typical with the wrap around upslope.

Now let’s jump to Saturday afternoon. Bam, 1-1.5″ liquid with a few intense streamers possible. You set up a intense streamer, those can progress east further than expected, drop temps to cold enough levels at lower elevations for stickage.. so Friday a.m at 7. Northern areas if this plays out like this, may be saying this isn’t performing as expected, when in reality the best period is yet to occur.

Since we just looked at liquid outlook. See how the model shows that in snow form

First up the 12z EURO.(18z Euro was similar)

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Now the 18z GFS

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And the 12z Canadian

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18z ICON(10 to 1, highest elevations at times should do better than 10 to 1)

Given what’s out there now data wise… 8-14″ Garrett, Preston and north in the western upslope zones look possible over the period.(7Springs, Mt.Davis, Bittinger, Mchenry, Oakland, Cranesville, Terra Alta, etc) As you work east in Garrett, amounts tail off 5-10″ in the eastern part of the county. These being multi day totals with the greatest period Friday-Saturday a.m

The favored Wv upslope zones. Temps a bit colder. Amounts 12-18″ look possible with localized pops of 18″+. Southern parts doing best with the early part and continues in to Saturday.

With all predicted ranges, I lean low to mid range with a good performance reaching the top end.

All subject to tweaks, changes in the coming 2 days.

Temps off the GFS each afternoon. Coldest period Thursday-Friday pm. Saturday we begin to ease out under that coldest core.

Last aspect, but not the least. The event is accompanied by strong winds. First after the front Wednesday pm. Strong gusty. Expect 50mph plus winds across the WV high ground. This is without snow blowing and drifting. That aspect kicks in as we go through the Thursday pm-and especially Friday pm early Saturday period.