Latest On The Snow Thoughts And Tweaks

November 20, 2024 7:00am

• Latest NWS Watches/Warnings/Advisories
• Expect this map to evolve today

• Latest expected snow total from the NWS

• Running the models

6z GFS

• Snowfall off the GFS . The tweak would continue to be a bit earlier in the main period occuring Friday. While the central and southern Alleghenies look to best Thursday. The main period that looked like Friday Pm and overnight now looks to be mid morning Friday through 7-10 am through 7-10pm.

• Temperatures through the event and Thanksgiving week. Models have been all over the place with temps next week. From a warm surge to a colder push. Back and forth model to model. Overnight runs saw the colder push win out on most modeling. Will it hold? This is why you’ll see so much variance on your phone app that’s based off the GFS.

• Sounding off the 6z GFS(k2g4-Garrett County Airport). This would suggest Friday night as precip lightens areas below 2500′ could transition to a bit of light rain. As long as precip rates hold up, snow would occur to 1800-2500. Friday evening in to the night. Below that, likely transition to rain. 2500-3000′ temps creep up to 32-34° overnight. Wet snow that may potentially end as light flakes or mist, drizzle Saturday a.m . Snow compaction will occur. If you are recording snowfall. Your max, in which that’s the objective to record will likely be prior to 7a.m reporting time Above 3000-3500 temps should hold 32 and below

• The 6z ECMWF below. Much the same as the GFS

• 6z ECMWF snowfall

• 6z ECMWF sounding (k2g4 -Garrett County Airport) This suggest much the same as the GFS above

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In Summary

• Initial snow tonight after the changeover looks minimal. Inch or less.
• Thursdays upslope, (the coldest period as well) looks best for the central and southern Alleghenies, with a squall potential that exist though all across the Alleghenies Thursday.
• The heaviest period looks to occur Friday 7am to 10am window through 7pm to 10Pm window. That’s bumped up from a few days ago.
• Upslope zones Garrett/Preston and north 8-14″, best highest Wv upslope areas 12-18″. To Note-SNOWFALL IS NOT SNOW DEPTH, ESPECIALLY OVER A MULTI DAY EVENT.
• Strong gusty winds accompany the event. Creating blowing and drifting and at times, whiteout conditions.
• Expect poor travel across the high ground at times and the worst being during the day Friday.
• Resort snow making window is limited with the event. 24-30 hrs Garrett and north. 30-48hrs Wv high ground. Borderline temps and a saturated airmass are not prime for snow making.
• Liquid equivalent output now through Saturday 1.25 to 2.25″. This will greatly benefit the ground water situation.