Foggy, cloudy start. Some areas of brief sun, cloudy with showers late
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip +L
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning West of Bittinger morning Old Cherry Glade Church morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Amish Rd morning Amish Rd morning
Garrett County Airport
Mosser Rd morning Cherry Creek at Mosser Rd morning
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop bp
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
no date due to mid October bear attack on station
Snowshoe
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
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High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valley
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Snowfall off the GFS . The tweak would continue to be a bit earlier in the main period occuring Friday. While the central and southern Alleghenies look to best Thursday. The main period that looked like Friday Pm and overnight now looks to be mid morning Friday through 7-10 am through 7-10pm.
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Temperatures through the event and Thanksgiving week. Models have been all over the place with temps next week. From a warm surge to a colder push. Back and forth model to model. Overnight runs saw the colder push win out on most modeling. Will it hold? This is why you’ll see so much variance on your phone app that’s based off the GFS.
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Sounding off the 6z GFS(k2g4-Garrett County Airport). This would suggest Friday night as precip lightens areas below 2500′ could transition to a bit of light rain. As long as precip rates hold up, snow would occur to 1800-2500. Friday evening in to the night. Below that, likely transition to rain. 2500-3000′ temps creep up to 32-34° overnight. Wet snow that may potentially end as light flakes or mist, drizzle Saturday a.m . Snow compaction will occur. If you are recording snowfall. Your max, in which that’s the objective to record will likely be prior to 7a.m reporting time Above 3000-3500 temps should hold 32 and below
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The 6z ECMWF below. Much the same as the GFS
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6z ECMWF snowfall
6z ECMWF sounding (k2g4 -Garrett County Airport) This suggest much the same as the GFS above
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In Summary
Initial snow tonight after the changeover looks minimal. Inch or less.
Thursdays upslope, (the coldest period as well) looks best for the central and southern Alleghenies, with a squall potential that exist though all across the Alleghenies Thursday.
The heaviest period looks to occur Friday 7am to 10am window through 7pm to 10Pm window. That’s bumped up from a few days ago.
Upslope zones Garrett/Preston and north 8-14″, best highest Wv upslope areas 12-18″. To Note-SNOWFALL IS NOT SNOW DEPTH, ESPECIALLY OVER A MULTI DAY EVENT.
Strong gusty winds accompany the event. Creating blowing and drifting and at times, whiteout conditions.
Expect poor travel across the high ground at times and the worst being during the day Friday.
Resort snow making window is limited with the event. 24-30 hrs Garrett and north. 30-48hrs Wv high ground. Borderline temps and a saturated airmass are not prime for snow making.
Liquid equivalent output now through Saturday 1.25 to 2.25″. This will greatly benefit the ground water situation.
Foxtown Rd morning West of Bittinger morning Old Cherry Glade church morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning West of Bittinger morning Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening (snow stake. Not to measure accumulation with, just for casual obs of depth in a non wind prone location)Bittinger 2NW Valley evening (another like above)
Garrett County Airport
Mosser Rd morning Cherry Creek at Mosser Rd morning Deep Creek Lake morning
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Spruce Knob
Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
Snowshoe
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Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area Temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
NWS out with Winter Storm Watches for the highlighted counties below
A jump in to the late day model runs. Models coming in to some agreement as you’ll see below
First up the 18z GFS
12 ECMWF (Euro)
The initial changeover Wednesday night, Thursday morning is a very minimal aspect as far as snow goes. Some light coatings possible.
As this looks now. The Thursday pm snows look best towards the central and southern Alleghenies. South of Canaan or Canaan and south.
As you go towards the Mason Dixon the best snow period looks Friday or more Friday pmish in to the overnight.
Let’s look quickly at liquid equivalent off the models. From anytime after late Wednesday night/Thursday 12:00am this is snow fall across the high ground.
In the image below, the Euro through 10pm Wednesday. This is primarily rainfall. In general the model shows .3 to .4 precipitation has fell.
Let’s hop forward to 7am FridayBy this time. Modeling puts out only .1 to .2 additional liquid north since 10pm Wednesday. This precip will all be in the snow form across the high ground. It puts .3 to .4 south which again is all snow across the high ground.
Now from 7am Friday through early Saturday afternoon. 1.25 liquid to 1.5 liquid since 10pm Wednesday that will be in the snow form. Again, stressing these are modeled numbers. Not a forecast. That said the greatest precip/snow period looks Friday -early Saturday a.m for most with the Thursday period looking better south.
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That was the Euro, now how about the GFS. (See below)
A bit less moisture on the front end off the GFS. At 5am Thursday and this all occured mainly as rainfall. The GFS has put out .15 to .30 area wide.
Let’s jump to 7am Friday .1 to .3″ additional liquid north(in the form of snow though) .5 to .7 south since 5am Thursday. So the early outlook is the first part of this event is more impressive south vs north and that’s typical with the wrap around upslope.
Now let’s jump to Saturday afternoon. Bam, 1-1.5″ liquid with a few intense streamers possible. You set up a intense streamer, those can progress east further than expected, drop temps to cold enough levels at lower elevations for stickage.. so Friday a.m at 7. Northern areas if this plays out like this, may be saying this isn’t performing as expected, when in reality the best period is yet to occur.
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Since we just looked at liquid outlook. See how the model shows that in snow form
First up the 12z EURO.(18z Euro was similar)
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Now the 18z GFS
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And the 12z Canadian
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18z ICON(10 to 1, highest elevations at times should do better than 10 to 1)
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Given what’s out there now data wise… 8-14″ Garrett, Preston and north in the western upslope zones look possible over the period.(7Springs, Mt.Davis, Bittinger, Mchenry, Oakland, Cranesville, Terra Alta, etc) As you work east in Garrett, amounts tail off 5-10″ in the eastern part of the county. These being multi day totals with the greatest period Friday-Saturday a.m
The favored Wv upslope zones. Temps a bit colder. Amounts 12-18″ look possible with localized pops of 18″+. Southern parts doing best with the early part and continues in to Saturday.
With all predicted ranges, I lean low to mid range with a good performance reaching the top end.
All subject to tweaks, changes in the coming 2 days.
Temps off the GFS each afternoon. Coldest period Thursday-Friday pm. Saturday we begin to ease out under that coldest core.
Last aspect, but not the least. The event is accompanied by strong winds. First after the front Wednesday pm. Strong gusty. Expect 50mph plus winds across the WV high ground. This is without snow blowing and drifting. That aspect kicks in as we go through the Thursday pm-and especially Friday pm early Saturday period.
A developing low pressure in to the lower lakes Wednesday in to Thursday will bring initially a rain to snow setup. The transition to snow over the high ground should occur rather rapidly later Wednesday night in to Thursday.
How things evolve late Thursday in to the weekend with the backside upslope potential will be the determining factor how significant of an event this is. The placement of the deep upper low, the duration will determine the qpf of the event. The GFS and Canadian are a much more prolonged snowy event vs the Euro.
The GFS below
The Canadian below
The Euro
The amount of precip output variance off the GFS and Euro is significant.
The GFS 72 hour Sunday a.m which covers the brunt of the initial snow and upslope event. Putting out in excess of 2″ of liquid, which would be snow across the high ground.
The Euro much much less.
Forecast likely will trend colder as we get closer.
Let’s look at the 850 temps. Essentially the WV high ground temps
Thursday morning off the GFS , that’s -7c or around 19-20° F. That’s not a borderline marginal temp setup. From Thursday through Sunday -4 to -7c is the range through the period. As long as it’s precipitating, there is no daytime diurnal across the tops. You would expect temps above 3500′-4000′ feet to run in the 20s for the event. 2500-3500 27-34° with the maxes occuring during precipitation lulls in which the GFS limits and the Euro gives more opportunity for slightly “less cold” surface conditions. Snowfall can occur down to the lower elevations with 1- heaviest intensity 2-nighttime periods.
The difference in the 2 models is the difference of a 4-8″ upslope snowfall event vs a 10-20″+ snowfall event. The Canadian laying in the middle for the typical favored upslope areas. That tails off east side.
Accompanying the snow, strong NW winds
off the gfs
winds gusting 30-45+mph. Strong temps, well below freezing temps. It takes minutes to get stickage going across those tops in those scenarios. A repeated bogus statement all the time by many is “ground is too warm”. Once you get several inches of accumulation, the marginal warmer ground will cause some underneath melt. That’s to be expected. After a week of rain and 30s, that ground is not that warm at present.
If the GFS scenario plays out, Whitegrass xcountry skiing is in business next weekend. Significant snowfall, significant blowing and drifting.
I’ll avoid attaching model snowfall maps
1- due to high variance
2- long ways out
More thoughts will occur as we go day to day towards the event.
Cloudy, foggy, drizzle, showers, dreary beginning to end
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .22
Dyacon Data Below
Rock Lodge Rd near The Glades morning West of Bittinger morning Old Cherry Glade church morning Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning West of Bittinger morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Dung Hill Rd morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon
The Glades
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Garrett County Airport
Mchenry morning Mosser Rd at Cherry Creek morning Railey Cam afternoon
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop bp
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
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Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Spruce Knob
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Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
no data due to Mid October Bear attack on the station
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Snowshoe
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Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Cloudy, SE winds. Rain incoming.. some high ground areas held freezing most of the day and saw freezing rain. Some onset sleet pellets reported and flakes as well. For most a cold rain. A hybrid type wedge event.
Bittinger 2NW Valley
precip .41
Dyacon Data Below
Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley morning Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley afternoon Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley evening Up from Bittinger 2NW Valley evening
The Glades
Garrett County Airport
Mchenry morning Mosser Rd morning Cherry Creek at Mosser Rd morning State Park Rd morning Deep Creek Lake morning By Garrett College afternoon
Top of Wisp
Canaan Heights/Davis 3SE
7am to 7am data mmts coop bp
Climate Reference Network Canaan
Cabin Mt at Bald Knob
Canaan Ski area
Cabin Mt-Western Sods
Bear Rocks-Dolly Sods
Spruce Knob
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Canaan Valley Refuge
Mt.Davis
no station data due to mid October Bear attack on station
Snowshoe
––––
Petersburg Grant County Airport
Elkins Airport
Site Comparison
Dy007-Canaan Valley Refuge 3150′, Dy008-Bittinger 2nw Valley 2600′, Dy002-Cabin Mt at Bald Knob 4350′, Dy003-Cabin Mt-Western Sods 4035′, Dy004-Spruce Knob 4820′, Cvpw2-Climate Reference Network Canaan 3380′, KW99-Petersburg Grant County Airport 961, K2G4 Garrett County Airport 2933′, KCBE Cumberland Airport 774′, KEKN Elkins Airport 1985′, KMGW Morgantown Airport 1227′, PMN16-Mt.Davis 3038′, KDCA-Reagan National 15′, G1472 Snowshoe 4500′, F0183 Burkes Garden 3050′, DY025-Bear Rocks 4052′
The Valley vs Cabin Mt
Bittinger 2NW Valley vs Garrett County Airport
Canaan area temps
Sods Plateau
– Allegheny Front area running colder in this “hybrid ” wedge setup. Baldy dropped briefly with evaporational cooling as precip began Bear Rocks (Dy025) freezing up
High Ground Comparison
Up High and Down Low
Up High, High Valley, Low Valley
The Valleys
Wv High Ground Cold Spots vs DCA
RTMA
Radar
–
Satellite
Flow
Current Surface Features and 500mb Height Anomalies and Flow
Allegheny Mountains Weather 